Tracking the Recovery November 21, 2014

2 Q3 3.5% Real Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics & Federal Reserve Board Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate FOMC Projection Note: Projection is the central tendency from the September 2014 Summary of Economic Projections. Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

3 Real Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics

= 100 October Industrial Production Index: Manufacturing Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

5 DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate more favorable responses towards economic activity. ISM: Business Survey Indexes Source: Institute for Supply Management via Haver Analytics

6 12 Month % Change Retail Sales Note: Retail sales includes food services. Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics October 4.1%

7 Autos and Light Trucks Light Trucks Autos October 16.5 mil. Sales of Automobiles & Light Trucks Millions of Vehicles Source: Autodata Corporation via Haver Analytics

8 12 Month % Change October 2.0% Average Hourly Earnings Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

9 Q2. Household Net Worth Percent of disposable personal income Source: Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States via Haver Analytics

10 Personal Saving Rate Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics Percent of disposable personal income September 5.6% Note: The personal saving rate was adjusted to remove tax-induced income shifting near the end of 2012.

11 September 4.5 mil. Existing Single-Family Home Sales Source: National Association of Realtors via Haver Analytics Millions of Homes Average Annual Existing Home Sales: 1990 through 1999

12 September 0.47 mil. Average Annual New Home Sales:1990 through 1999 New Single-Family Home Sales Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics Millions of Homes

13 Private Single-Family Starts & Permits Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics Millions of Starts & Permits Starts Permits Average Housing Starts September

14 Private Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics Millions of Starts & Permits Starts Permits 1990 – 1999 Average Multi-Family Starts September

$, Billions Twelve-Month Moving Average September Real Private Nonresidential Construction Put In Place Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics Notes: Deflated using the price index for private fixed investment in nonresidential structures.

16 Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate Q3 7.2% Real Investment in Equipment Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics

17 Current $, Billions Shipments September New Orders Core Capital Goods Notes: Core capital goods are nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft. Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

18 Business Inventory/Sales Ratio Percent Retailers Total Business Manufacturers September Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

19 Current $, Billions August -$40.1 bil. Six-Month Moving Average Balance of International Trade Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

20 Exchange Value of the USD Index, March 1973 = 100 Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics Notes: Measured as the real broad trade-weighted exchange value of the United States Dollar. October

21 Quarterly average of monthly changes, thousands of persons Oct. Nonfarm Payroll Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

22 Millions of Persons October mil. Nonfarm Payroll Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

23 Percent October 5.8% Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics Notes: FOMC projection is the central tendency for the Q4 levels, from the September 17, 2014 meeting. FOMC Projection

24 Percent October Measures of Labor Utilization Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

25 Percent of Population October Labor Force Participation Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

26 Gauges of Inflation Source: BEA, BLS, & Commodity Research Bureau via Haver Analytics Notes: Core PCE Price Index includes expenditures on food services.

27 September 1.4% FOMC Projection Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index 12 Month % Change Notes: FOMC projection is the central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the September 17, 2014 meeting. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 2% Longer-run Target

28 All Finished Goods Core Finished Goods September Producer Price Indexes 12 Month % Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

29 PPI Core Intermediate Goods (Left Axis) Commodity Research Bureau Spot Commodity Price Index (Right Axis) 12 Month % Change Commodity Price Indexes 12 Month % Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Commodity Research Bureau via Haver Analytics September

30 Spot Price November 17th Crude Oil Prices Current $/ Barrel Source: Financial Times & New York Mercantile Exchange via Haver Analytics & Bloomberg Futures Price Notes: Spot and Futures Prices are for Brent Crude Oil.

31 November 7th 5-Year 5 Years Ahead TIPS Inflation Compensation Source: Board of Governors Research Series via Haver Analytics Percent

32 October Real Federal Funds Rate Percent, effective Fed funds rate - lagged year over year change in core PCE price index Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

33 FOMC Statement Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions improved somewhat further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources is gradually diminishing. Household spending is rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined somewhat; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators and inflation moving toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Although inflation in the near term will likely be held down by lower energy prices and other factors, the Committee judges that the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2 percent has diminished somewhat since early this year. The Committee judges that there has been a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market since the inception of its current asset purchase program. Moreover, the Committee continues to see sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing progress toward maximum employment in a context of price stability. Accordingly, the Committee decided to conclude its asset purchase program this month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions. Source: Board of Governors October 29, 2014

34 Continued… To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee anticipates, based on its current assessment, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program this month, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee's employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated. Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run. Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Stanley Fischer; Richard W. Fisher; Loretta J. Mester; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action was Narayana Kocherlakota, who believed that, in light of continued sluggishness in the inflation outlook and the recent slide in market-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations, the Committee should commit to keeping the current target range for the federal funds rate at least until the one-to-two-year ahead inflation outlook has returned to 2 percent and should continue the asset purchase program at its current level. Source: Board of Governors October 29, 2014

35 S&P 500 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics Index, = 10

36 CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) Source: CBOE via Haver Analytics Imputed volatility

37 November 14th 10-Yr. Treasury Bond Rate Corporate BBB Bond Rate 30 Year Conventional Mortgage Rate Corporate AAA Bond Rate Capital Market Rates Percent Source: BofA Merrill Lynch & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

38 10 Year Average Risk Premium Risk Premium Source: BofA Merrill Lynch & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics Percent, BofA Merrill Lynch Corporate BBB - 10 Yr. Treasury Yield November 14th

Comments/Questions