1 Pilot Knowledge Survey By Bob Jackson, MIC, ZSE CWSU And Accident Study Weather ??

2 Introduction - 1 A well known ground school syllabus –allots 2 hours for weather theory. –Assumes pilots will improve their weather knowledge Further weather study SHOULD BE mandatory for pilots.

3 Introduction - 2 Survey given to Certified Flight Instructors –CFI’s considered by some as the ‘Crème de la Crème of pilots’ –Given in 1989 –238 responded

4 The Survey - 1 Survey consisted of five questions: –What license do you hold? –What is main source of additional weather knowledge since ground school? –Are you comfortable with present Weather knowledge?

5 The Survey - 2 Survey questions continued: –What is the average number of safety seminars attended per year? –If you could choose a weather topic for the next safety seminar, what would it be?

6 License Held ? Commercial Private ATP

7 Comfortable with present knowledge of weather? 36% Yes 55% No 9% Sometimes

8 Source of additional weather knowledge since receiving license? 28% Books 6% Classroom 12% Audio/Visual 25% Seminars 29% IN FLIGHT !!! This is not where to learn about Weather Trial & Error

9 Number of safety seminars attended per year ? 57% -- 1 to 4 8% -- 5 to 8 1% -- 9 to 12 35% --Rarely attend

10 Comfortable with present knowledge of weather? 36% Yes 55% No 9% Sometimes 49% of these rarely attended aviation safety seminars !!

11 What Wx Topic Do You Want to See Next? Basic Weather Principles How to read Weather Charts How to get the most from a Pilot Weather Briefing In-flight weather recognition Fronts, pressure systems Icing and Turbulence

12 Weather is a “Weak Point” to most GA Pilots ‘ Poor’ knowledge gained from ground school Little/no additional training In-flight is Not place to learn about weather!! Friendly Skies??

13 Trial and Error

14 How Much of Aviation Training is Trial and Error? Take-offs ? Landings ? Aeronautics ? Radio use ? Aircraft instruments?

15 Survey Suggests Proper emphasis NOT put on weather training. Weather is Learned by “Trial and Error” !!!! Not the way to learn about Weather!!

16 Two NTSB Studies of Non-Fatal (GA) Wx Accidents Unfavorable cross winds major cause

17 Two NTSB studies Fatal (GA) Wx accidents Lowering ceilings during flight Lowering Visibilities during flight i.e. Continued VFR flight into IFR conditions “Violent Weather” was factor in a SMALL PERCENTAGE of fatal accidents.

18 NTSB RECOMMENDATIONS Visit FAA Flight Service Station Visit NWS Forecast office –Make arrangements first Familiarize with local terrain/weather patterns.

19 National Statistics for 10 Yrs. Lightning Tornado Hurricane Flood Total Fatalities –2,023 Total Fatalities –3,504 1,518 more –Almost twice as many !!! US Wx Related Deaths Wx as Causal factor in Aircraft Accidents

20 Familiarize with Local Terrain/Weather Patterns. Other pilots Seminars Books or Newsletters

21 Example: VFR Flight Through the Cascades 3,000 ft Elevation Can not see pass in advance Narrow, steep sides No place to do 180 turn Steep terrain makes up for low elevation 3,800 ft Elevation Can see pass in advance Wider with ‘sides’ further apart Wide enough to do 180 turn Snoqualmie PassStampede Pass

22 Example: VFR Flight Through the Cascades Stampede Pass Snoqualmie Pass

23 Example: VFR Flight Through the Cascades 150 Deg. Curve A ‘Straight Shot’

24 Example: VFR Flight Through the Cascades Box canyons Left turns

25 Example of local ‘Rule of Thumbs’ No Rule of Thumb works all the time. If you can not fly VFR through Stampede Pass... –You can not fly VFR through Snoqualmie Pass

26 Example of local ‘Rule of Thumbs’ If you can not fly VFR thru the gorge, –You can not fly VFR thru the passes.

27 Aircraft Accidents Where? What was the cause? I’m Experienced !! –It won’t happen to me -

28 WA Accident Statistics Data received from NTSB 16 Years ( ) Data for Fatal Accidents only Looking for patterns

29 WA Accident Causes Dust/Haze -visibility restriction Density Altitude Icing Turbulence Wind Improper IFR operations (IFR pilot) VFR flight into IMC

30 Density Altitude - 4 Dust/Haze -2

31 Icing - 4

32 Turbulence - 6

33 Wind - 9 (Cross, Tail, Shear)

34 IFR Conditions - 32

35 VFR Flight into IMC Conditions - 44

36 All Factors

37 Most Frequent Factors VFR into IFR IFR Conditions Wind Icing Density Altitude Turbulence Haze/Dust 4443% 3231% 10 9% 6 6% 5 5% 4 4% 2 2% 43% +31% 74% FactorNo.%

38 Discussion - 1 Total of 191 fatalities VFR to IFR - Most pilots were briefed about IFR weather in route. IFR - Most used “improper IFR procedures.”

39 Discussion - 2 Many flying on “Invalid Briefings”(old) Most had change to ‘back out’ but didn’t. Many “Overconfidence of pilot”

40 Worst Month to Fly? No conclusions can be made here !

41 Non-Instrument Rated ?? Tempted to take off in marginal Wx? If you decide to go and get caught in IFR conditions, then…

42 Faithful/Fatal Decision Sky - overcast You realize that visibility is becoming restricted. Ceiling and visibility gradually lowering. Map shows high terrain in area. You’ve flown in worse, so… –You press on.

43 Faithful/Fatal Decision Flight could/should have waited. Was that appointment so important? When do you decide to do a 180?

44 Faithful/Fatal Decision A Safe flight or CRASH !! What makes the difference?

45 Summary - 1 Pilots don’t get good weather training Weather is a “Weak Point” for most GA Pilots Pilots need a good knowledge of basic weather Pilots need knowledge of local terrain and it’s affects on flight.

46 Summary - 2 Violent, easily recognized weather –is not main cause of aviation accidents IFR weather conditions –main cause of aviation accidents –Recognition and Avoidance needs to be better taught to pilots

47 The End