Food Security Concerns and Agricultural Policy: Their Environmental Implications for Indian Punjab R.S. Sidhu

Issues 1.What are the changes in crop pattern? 2.What is the relationship between production and procurement? 3.What are the implications of high growth in foodgrain production w.r.t. ground water resources and soil?

Gross value of crop output at prices (Rs. crore) RiceWheatCottonOilseedsPulses Sugarcan e Other cereals Aggregat e % % % % CGR (%) Source: Singh and Sidhu, 2004

Crop Rice Wheat Maize Gram Groundnut Rapeseed & Mustard Sugarcane American Cotton Cropping Pattern in Punjab (% of GCA)

Inputs use pattern in Punjab YearArea under HYV Fert.UseIrriga- ted area (%) Tube- wells (In ’000) TractorsCropp- ing Intensit y (%) Rice (000h a) Wheat (000ha) Total (000 Nutrient tons) Per Ha NSA (nutrient kgs) Total (In Thousands) No./000 ha

Average use of inputs for wheat and rice in Punjab (Per ha) Year/CropFertilizer use (kg of nutrients) Chemical Use (Rs. at prices) Wheat Paddy

Share of Punjab state in total procurement in India (in thousand tons) YearRice Wheat PunjabIndia% sharePunjabIndia % share to to to to Source: Economic Survey, Government of India, various issues.

Changes in consumption expenditure (Rs/capita for 30 days at prices) Punjab All India Items Rural Cereals Pulses Milk and Milk products Meat, fish, egg Vegetables Fruits, fresh All food Urban Cereals Pulses Milk and Milk products Meat, fish, egg Vegetables Fruits, fresh All food Source: NSS data.

Brief Contours of Agricultural Policy in India India Land reforms 1950s Public Investments on Irrigation Development Setting up of Agricultural Prices Commission and Food Corporation of India for procurement of foodgrains, 1965 Green Revolution, Land ceiling and distribution of surplus land, 1972 Integrated Rural Development Program, National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development, 1982 Setting up of RRBs Economic Reforms, 1991 Implementation of WTO agreement, 1995 Targeting of PDS, 1997 Doubling flow of Institutional Agricultural Credit, 2005 Encouraging Agro-processing, 2005 Expanding Micro Irrigation, 2005 Agricultural Market Reforms, 2005

YearPaddyWheatBarleyMaizeGram Musta rd Cotton (Am) CGR (%) to to to Coefficient of Variation (de-trended series) of farm harvest prices, to WheatRapeseedGramBarleyPaddy Cotton Am Cotton DesiG'nutMaize Growth and Variability in Output Prices

Input and Output Prices Index for Wheat and Paddy in Punjab Year OutputFertilizerChemicals Wheat Paddy

Agricultural subsidies in Punjab (Rs 10 millions) Year FertilizersElectricityCanal Irrigation *37 * as per calculations of Punjab State Electricity Regulatory Commission. Source: Economic Survey of India and Punjab, various issues.

Realisation of cost and level of subsidy on power supply to agriculture ACR (%) Subsidy Rs. million

Share of different crops/enterprises and other activities in the research budget of the University YearResearch Budget (Rs. Million) Percentage of Research budget to Whe at & rice Cotton and S’cane Other field crops Horticu ltre Livesto ck and fishery Post harvest ing Market ing Others

Growth and Variability in productivity of different crops in Punjab CropCGR 1965/66 to CV of de-trended yield to Paddy Cotton S’cane Maize Wheat Gram Rapeseed

Increase in proportionate area of the central zone under water table depth of more than 10 meter YearCentral zoneSouth west zone 5-10 mt>10 mt5-10 mt>10 mt In per cent

Per cent area under different water table depths in central zone

Ground Water Status in Punjab Rate of Exploitation (%) Blocks (in per cent of total) Sub- Mountainous Central (Paddy zone) South West (Cotton zone) Punjab Below Above Total Blocks

Rise/ fall in Water table Sangrur 43  Patiala 33  Jalandhar 22  Amritsar 18  Kapurthala 17  Faridkot 13  Ludhiana 13  Ropar 08  Hoshiarpur-1 02  Gurdaspur 02  Hoshiarpur-2 05  Mansa 09  Ferozpur 17  Bathinda 21 

Average water table depth (m) in different zones ZonesMeasuredPredicted Sub- montane Central South- west

N, P, K Status of Punjab Soils, 1981 through 2002 (In per cent samples deficient) Nutrient availability LowMediumHigh N (OC) P K

Deficiency of Micro nutrients in Punjab Soils (% samples deficient) DistrictYearCuFeMn Ludhiana Sangrur Amritsar Patiala

Incidence of Diseases In 1970s Wheat -Yellow and brown rust -Flag smut -Karnal bunt Rice: -Disease free Cotton: -Disease free Present Position Wheat: -New HYVs became susceptible to new races of brown rust -Flag smut minimized -Karnal bunt became wide spread -Other important diseases: head scab, leaf blight Rice: -Bacterial leaf blight major disease; -Other diseases: sheath blight, sheath rot, false smut, kernel smut Cotton: -Leaf curl virus of cotton

Incidence of insect-pests In 1970s Rice: -Pest free crop Cotton: -Cotton white fly was a minor pest -American cotton bollworm reported in localized areas Present Position Rice: -Yellow stem borer and leaf folder are key pests -Others important are white backed plant hopper and rice hispa Cotton: -Cotton white fly became key pest -American cotton bollworm became epidemic

Incidence of Weeds In 1970s Rice: -Echinocloa (swank) was predominant Wheat: -Broad leaf weeds and wild oats were predominant Present Position Rice: -Echinocloa is predominant -New weeds: Ischeamum ruzosum (kanaki), Ceasulia axillaris (ghrilla), Sphenochlea zylancia Wheat: -Phalaris minor is predominant and has become resistant to Isoproturon through continuous use -New weeds in some areas: Rumex spinosus (jangli palak), Medicago denticulata (Maina)

Share of Livestock in Agriculture (Rs crore at 1980/81 prices) YearAgri.LivestockAgri+Milk Prod.Exp. on milk and milk products at 1985/86p (Rs/capita) Livestock000’ tonsRuralUrban (68.3)(31.7)(100)(33.17)(28.43) (64.4)(35.6)(100)(33.17)(29.86) (58.7)(41.3)(100)(34.62)(34) The figures in parentheses in case of expenditure on milk and milk proucts represent percent of food expenditure.

Factors affecting Milk Production YearMilk Prod. (000 tons) Milk Processing Capacity (‘000 lit/day) Coop. Milk collecting centers (No.) Per Capita Income (Rs at wholesale prices) Milk Prices (Rs/liter at 1980/81 consumer prices) CGR (%) Reg. Coeff. (Dependent: Milk prod.) (8.46)(4.28)(3.60)(3.83) Elasticity of Milk prod

Share of Livestock in NSDP of Primary Sector in different regions/districts (%) Sub-Mountain Zone Gurdaspur Hoshiarpur Ropar Central Zone Amritsar Kapurthala Jalandhar Ludhiana Sangrur Patiala South Zone Ferozpur Faridkot Bathinda

Determinants of Livestock Growth Depend: Share of Livestock in NSDP (primary) Sub- Mountainou s Zone Central Zone South Zone Reg. Coeff. (linear) Share of Livestock Economic Factors Av. Milk Yield Crop Productivity (Rs/ha) Real PCI (Rs at1980/81p) Institutional and Infrastructural Factors Milk Soc/100 sq km area19136 Villages/milk society Animals/Vet. Hospital Road Density Urbanisation (%) Literacy (%)

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