1. Agricultural Trade and Poverty Reduction in Nepal Dr. Shiva Sharma National Labour Academy nla@mail.com.npla@mail.com.np Presented in Media Workshop, "Role of Trade in Poverty Reduction" Nagarkot, December 1-2, 2006

2. What is Happening to Poverty from 42 in 1995 to 31% in 2004 45% in rural, and 10% in urban area are poor 54% are poor among agricultural labour households 50% poor among small land holders 2/3 of Nepali poor come from small holders Poverty among Dalits about 50% Muslims 44% poor in 1995, 41% poor in 2004 What Contributed to Poverty Reduction? Remittance income—1/3 of household receive it Increase in non-farm wage income

3. Agriculture: Growth and investment [1992/93-2005/6] GDP growth was 3.9% AGDP growth was 3.3% – Public sector expenditure in agri sector(-)3.57% – Agriculture(-)5.17 – Irrigation(-)5.55 – Land Reform(+)4.0 – Forest(+)1.0

4. Investment Growth rate After APP (1997-2005) Agri sector (-)2.5 Research (-)5.3 Extension (+)1.2 Subsidy (-)42.4 Irrigation (-)6.4 Feeder Roads (-)9.8 Rural Roads (+)11.9

5. Output growth rate [1997-2005] Cereal growth3.2 Fruits3.5 Vegetables4.9 Milk3.1 Meat3.0 Egg4.2 Per capita food production from 170 kg in 1992 to 193kg in 2005

6. Trade channels through which poverty is affected income and employment effect expenditure effects arising of price changes effects on revenue—enabling higher expenditure on poverty reduction But not that simple; these are must for impact on poverty backward linkages to resources owned by poor labor intensities of activities labor market conditions (wage, security, safety at work) Poor with these characteristics are least affected by trade lack of assets and capital physical isolation lack of access to created opportunities

7. Characterizing Agricultural Export/Import Export accounts 3 to 4% of AGDP Imports accouts 7 to 8% of AGDP Dominated by India: 70% of export; 55 percent of import Likely beneficiaries of trade policy reforms Market surplus of paddy27% Market surplus of lentil42% Top 20% of farmers account 90% of sales of cereals Subsistence farmers—lack ability to respond to price changes Little diversification Weak, fragmented markets

8. After reform outcomes prices are falling-rice, fruits inputs prices are rising cheaper imports of rice from India [productivity and subsidy high in India] supply responses weak—many reasons [related macro policies] diversification—but who do that taking risks (prices, inputs)? Large farms?

9. Policy Outlook "Utilizing trade for poverty reduction needs reorienting production structure and developing linkages with rural resources, resources owned by the poor" Strategic interventions to build 'supply side' capability and capacity enabling poor to benefit from growth, trade—asset ownership; employment subsidy tariff policy to halt cheaper imports infrastructure—example of shallow tube wells public good character of agri investment

10. Thank you