Elections and Direct Democracy 31 October 2011

Who decides who the party nominee will be? In the past, party activists made the decision at the national convention Now (since the 1970s) voters decide through caucuses and primaries These contests determine how many delegates a candidate receives. The rules play a role in influencing what types of candidates will win

Iowa and NH can help the Underdog Underdogs (outsiders) have seen their support rise from an early win in Iowa and NH. Carter in 1976 (up 12 percent) Hart in 1984 (up 27 percent) Tsongas in 1992 (up 26 percent) Buchanan in 1996 (up 20 percent) McCain in 2000 (up 15 percent) Obama in 2008 (up 8 percent)

Frontloading

Incumbency Advantage The vast majority of congressional elections are not very competitive (most incumbents are re-elected; 94% in 2008; 86% in 2010 which was the lowest rate since 1970)lowest rate since 1970 Results for House of RepresentativesHouse of Representatives Senate elections are more competitive but reelection rates are still very high (ie. in 2010, 84% reelected; in 2008, 83% reelected rate). Republicans defeated two incumbents and defended all of their seats (a first) which was the largest number of Senate gains for the GOP since Democrats retained majority by 53-47, Results for SenateSenate

The 2010 Midterm Election An Historic Election? Republicans recaptured the House for the first time since 2006 with a gain of 63 seats; prior to the election Democrats held a majority (41 seat advantage)

Historic Comparisons Presidents party has lost seats in Congress for all but three of the 27 midterms beginning in the 20 th Century. Since the end of WW II, the average midterm seat loss for the president’s party is 24 seats. When the president’s approval rating is below 50% the average midterm seat loss is 38 seats. Source: Abramson et al. (2007) Change and Continuity in the 2004 and 2006 Elections

Trends in Midterm Elections The 2010 election represents the largest loss since 1948.

Voter turnout The 2010 midterm election experienced the highest turnout for a midterm election in the past 30 years. An estimated 41.5 percent of those eligible to vote participated, which appears to have topped the 41.1 percent in the 1994 midterm elections – another good year for Republicans. Nevertheless, turnout is substantially lower than presidential elections; in 2008, 61.6 percent of those eligible to vote did so. Source: Michael McDonald, George Mason UniversityMichael McDonald

Age and Turnout Exit polls showed that voters made up 11% of the electorate; down from 18% in In comparison, people age 65 and older increased from 19% in 2006 to 23% in Voters younger than 30 still gave Democrats a boost. Every other age group favoured the GOP, including a whopping 18-point advantage for Republicans among voters older than 65.

How Citizens Voted for U.S. House Source: CNN Exit PollsCNN Exit Polls

How do people decide who to vote for? Two Models of Voting Behaviour Voters as forward thinkers (Prospective Model) Party identification Candidate characteristics Issue positions Voters looking back (Retrospective Model) Party identification Evaluation of the past Note that both models agree that partisanship plays a central role

Functions of Party Identification Helps one organise and categorise information Perceptual Screen Helps one make value judgments. Is Barack Obama more competent than George Bush? Could Bill Clinton be trusted? Influence Political Behavior Persons who are party identifiers are more interested in politics, more concerned about who wins the election, and more likely to vote. party id is the most important determinant of the way people vote

Measuring Party Identification “Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, and Independent, or what?” Persons who call themselves Republicans or Democrats are then asked: “Would you call yourself a strong (Republican, Democrat) or a not very strong (Republican, Democrat). Persons who call themselves Independents, answer “no preference,” or name another party are asked : “Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican or to the Democratic party?”

Trends in Partisanship ( )

Influence of Party Id

Dynamics of 2000 Presidential Campaign Source: Johnston and Hagen (APSA 2003) “Priming and Learning: Evidence from the 2000 Annenberg Study”

Perception of Gore’s Honesty

Requirements for Issue Voting Aware of the issue Care about the issue Perceive difference between the candidates Correct about the difference

Direct Democracy as an Alternative Rather than voting for representatives, citizens are able to draft and vote directly on policy Direct democracy allows citizens to be their own “legislators” Direct democracy also allows citizens to set the policy agenda Circumvent a non-responsive legislature

Recall the reasoning for the U.S. Constitutional Framework… America is not so much a democracy as it is a republic. The whole idea of the Constitution was to limit majority rule, to prevent tyranny of the majority. This is why citizens do not make laws directly, but elect representatives to do so, and supra-majorities or checks and balances are required in every step of legislation and execution. Nevertheless, the Constitution reserves power to the states to determine their own laws. Many states allow voters to make laws directly.

Devices of Direct Democracy The Referendum Government places a question before the voters The Initiative Allows voters (or some organized group) to define the issue or question to be voted on The Recall Allows voters to undo elections by recalling elected officials

The Referendum France and the Netherlands recently voted on the European Constitution (2005) Constitution of Iraq (2005) Australian Republic (1999) Canada “Charlottetown Accord” (1992)— divisions of powers between federal and provinces Ireland (1995) held a referendum to decide whether divorce should be legal

The Initiative—Some Examples Taxes Prop 13 (California, 1978) Medicinal marijuana California’s Prop 315 (1996); Proposition 1 (Michigan 2008); Measure 67 (Oregon, 1998) New proposals in California would legalise, tax and regulate the drug in what would be the first such law in the United States. Tax officials estimate that legislation could bring $1.4 billion a year. New proposals Ban same-sex marriage 11 states (2004); 3 states (2008) Deny illegal immigrants social services, health care, and public education Prop 187 (California, 1994)

The Recall Typically used for local offices Exception-California Governor (October 7, 2003) Signatures Results

Where Direct Democracy is used

Examples of Ballot Measures California (2010)

Vote on Legalizing Marijuana (CA) Source: CNN Exit PollsCNN Exit Polls

Advantages Allows citizens to circumvent unresponsive legislatures (example of term limits and other reforms) Allows citizens to remove unpopular representatives (example of Gray Davis) Empowers voters

Criticisms of Direct Democracy Original intent of the framers was for a republican form of government Too much money and “special interest” influence Voters are incompetent Concern about minority rights

Reasons Californians Support Direct Democracy Source: Table 7.1, p. 135 Donovan and Bowler

Voter Evaluations of Representative versus Direct Democracy Source: Table 7.2, p. 136 Donovan and Bowler