The Art and Science of Decision-Making The assignment links: Please the 4 letter preferences to Jason at the address above

1 Definitions Art: Skill acquired by experience or study Systematic use of knowledge or skill in making or doing things The use of skill and imagination in the production of things of beauty Science: Study concerned with observation and classification of facts and (especially) with the establishment of verifiable general laws Accumulated systematized knowledge especially re physical world Source: Webster’s.

2 Art Science World of human interaction Social Sciences World of material objects Nature Sciences Source: Standards by Laurence Busch.

3

4

5

6

7

8 Before Decision DeliberationDecision Post- Decision Advising Making Explaining Implementing

9 From 2 Legends in Advertising “Advertising is fundamentally persuasion and persuasion happens to be not a science, but an art.” - Bill Bernbach “Advertising is based on fixed principles and is reasonably exact. We know what is most effective and we act on basic laws.” - Claude Hopkins

10 Key Concepts Personality types Cognitive dissonance Selective perception Framing Deliberations

11 The Art and Science of Decision-Making – Spring 2013 Rob Duboff/Jason Robins Week 1 (1/28)  Introduction of individual students and their reasons for taking the course o Finalize syllabus as/if needed  Is decision-making primarily rational or emotional?  Organization of course: address specific issues each week Assignment: Short essay on whether study of decision-making is an art or a science View Super Bowl Ads Week 2 (2/4) – Perspectives on Decision-Making  Discuss the noteworthy ads o Implications about consumers? o Decisions to put on the ads  Contexts for thinking about decisions o Art vs. science o Rational vs. emotional o Prospective vs. retrospective o Individual vs. group decisions o Advising vs. making decisions o When to decide (vs. what or how) Assignment: Take MBTI

12 The Art and Science of Decision-Making – Spring 2013 Rob Duboff/Jason Robins Week 3 (2/11): Individual Differences  Discuss MBTI and implications on decision-making  How can understanding personal differences help in group decisions? In explaining decisions?  Risk profiles Assignment: Read Blink by Gladwell (Chapters 1-4; Conclusion) Week 4 (2/25): Self-Awareness  Discuss Blink and implications for decision-making  Does self-awareness help or hurt decision-making?  How does knowing yourself help in making decisions about buying a home Assignment: Select essay topic and lab focus (e.g., influencing others vs. own decisions) Read Thinking, Fast and Slow by Kahneman (sections to be announced) Week 5 (3/4): What Influences Decisions  Reprise: is decision-making art or science?  What does science (in terms of type 1 and type 2 delineation) tell us about making decisions?  Negotiations Assignment: Essay applying MBTI and books to a past decision – due 3/11 Read article from course web site

13 The Art and Science of Decision-Making – Spring 2013 Rob Duboff/Jason Robins Week 6 (3/11): Individual vs. Group Decisions  When are group decisions better/worse than individual decisions?  Are juries rational?  Are they fair? Assignment: Read article from course web site Week 7 (3/25): Personal vs. Business vs. Government Decisions  Detail similarities and differences re process and substance o How is a start-up different?  How might we all do better? Assignment: Background for classroom decision lab options (i.e., a case study) Week 8 (4/1): Decision-Making in Action  Decision lab (1)  Teams discuss issues and then try to influence decision of a tribunal of other students Week 9 (4/8): Decision-Making in Action  Decision lab (2)  Teams discuss issues and then try to influence decision of a tribunal of other students

14 The Art and Science of Decision-Making – Spring 2013 Rob Duboff/Jason Robins Week 10 (4/15): Decision-Making Debrief and Decision-Making Process  What have we learned about decisions? o Best process(es) o Use of group (or not) o Role of information/ “facts” Assignment: Select final paper topic ( 3-5 pages) Read Competing on Analytics (from web site) Week 11 (4/22): Supporting Decisions  Developing the information you/someone else needs  Market research  How make decisions with imperfect knowledge o “Big data” vs. “insights” Assignment: Start final paper Read Being Wrong by Schulz (Chapters 1-3 and 13-15)

15 The Art and Science of Decision-Making – Spring 2013 Rob Duboff/Jason Robins Week 12 (4/29): The Decision-Making Process  Decision trees/Bayesian analysis overview  What have we learned about decisions? o Best process(es) o Use of group (or not) o Role of information/ “facts” Assignment: Complete final paper on a decision to be made in the future Week 13 (5/13): How Can We Make the Process and Substance of Decisions Better?  Summary of course  Is decision-making a puzzle or a mystery?