Title Adapting to climate change: measuring progress Adaptation Sub-Committee Progress Report 2011 Lord Krebs Kt FRS 14 July 2011

2 Extreme weather events are in the headlines

Adaptation Sub-Committee Established by Climate Change Act 2008 to: advise on preparedness of UK for climate change monitor progress in adaptation Established by Climate Change Act 2008 to: advise on preparedness of UK for climate change monitor progress in adaptation Dr Andrew Dlugolecki Lord John Krebs Chairman Lord John Krebs Chairman Prof Tim Palmer Prof Anne Johnson Sir Graham Wynne Dr Sam Fankhauser Prof Martin Parry Prof Jim Hall 3

ASC’s second progress report 4 Measuring progress in adaptation (indicators) Focus on three priority areas Advise on Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) Measuring progress in adaptation (indicators) Focus on three priority areas Advise on Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA)

5 ASC ladder: indicators of preparedness Vulnerability to current climate and future climate Uptake of low-regret actions Accounting for climate change in long-term decisions

Indicators: development in flood risk areas 6 TypeIndicatorTrend ImpactInsurance claims for weather related causes VulnerabilityNew dwellings built in areas of high flood risk ActionUptake of resilience measures in new build Builds on original work by AEA Technology (2011) for ASC

7 Focus of the second report Land use planning Managing water resources Design and renovation of residential buildings Providing national infrastructure Managing natural resources Designing and renovating buildings Emergency planning Land use planning ASC’s adaptation priorities Assessed in this report

8 Land use planning

Development in flood risk areas continues 9 River/coastal flood risk areas Surface water flood risk areas All areas Source: Arup (2011) for ASC Change 2001 – 2011 (%)

Hard surfacing is increasing at expense of urban greenspace 10 Natural area Mixed use Man-made surfaces Source: Arup (2011) for ASC % Change in 2001 – 2011

Use of flood protection measures in new buildings 11 Source: Arup (2011) for ASC

Increased protection from flood defences 12 Source: Environment Agency (2011) Additional households protected

But residual flood risk still increasing in sampled locations 13 Source: Arup (2011) for ASC % Change in developed area Environment Agency Flood risk category

14 Managing water resources

Security of water supply has improved, but with continued environmental cost 15 Source: From data reported to Ofwat (‘June returns’). Security of supply index

16 Source: ASC calculations based on revised Water Resource Management Plans Without adaptation, there could be deficits in some parts of country 10 – 20% deficit 20 – 30% deficit >30% deficit > 30% surplus 20 – 30% surplus 10 – 20% surplus 0 – 10% deficit 0 – 10% surplus Zones in deficit or surplus (2035)

17 Water companies plan a mix of supply and demand measures to close the gap Thames Water preferred plan Source: ASC presentation of Thames Water data extracted from WRMP Current projected demand Reduced leakage Reduced leakage + demand Millions of litres

There is scope to increase action on demand 18 Our economic analysis suggests that it is cost-effective to reduce demand to 115 litres per person per day in the South East

Uncertainty is not fully factored in to water resource planning 19 Source: Atkins (2011) for the ASC and Thames Water. Projected deficits Adaptation pathways medium low 2050s medium 2080s high Groundwater Pathway 3 Pathway 1 Pathway 2 high 2020s Deficits

20 Designing and renovating buildings

Low-regret opportunities for adaptation – water efficiency measures New build End-of-life upgrade Retrofit Cost-benefit ratio Rain water system Grey water system Dual-flush WC Ml/year New build package at zero additional cost: 115 l/person/day Source: Davis Langdon (AECOM) (2011) for the ASC 85 l/person/ day standard End-of-life upgrade at zero additional cost: Low-flow shower, taps, WC Click-lock taps Low-water washing machine 1

Summary of headline messages 22 UK is coping with current climate variability Some sectors are near the limits and vulnerability is likely to increase Low-regret actions could be taken now Long-term decisions not fully incorporating climate adaptation UK is coping with current climate variability Some sectors are near the limits and vulnerability is likely to increase Low-regret actions could be taken now Long-term decisions not fully incorporating climate adaptation

Opportunities for National Adaptation Programme 22 ASC PriorityKey BarriersOpportunities Land use planning Not accounting for long – term costs Insufficient guidance Localism Bill National Planning Policy Framework Managing water resources Planning not factoring in full range of climate uncertainties Weak signals to encourage sustainable abstraction Water White Paper Price Review 2014 Design and renovation of residential buildings Lack of information, available capital or incentives Future reviews of Building Regulations Green Deal

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25 Increase in area of buildings in area of flood risk (2001 – 2011) Decrease in area of buildings in area of flood risk (2001 – 2011) East Riding Kingston- upon-Hull Source: Arup (2011) for ASC Development in flood risk areas continues