F RANKLIN C OUNTY P UBLIC S CHOOLS Enrollment Projection and Demographic Report

F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  Data used in this projection included:  Franklin County live births for the past 10 years  Franklin County population information  K-12 enrollment history at the end of the first school month by grade and by school for the past 10 years 2

F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  The methodology included:  Analysis of the end of the first school month enrollment by grade and for each school in the district.  Calculate percent of Franklin County’s live births 5 years prior to the current year number that entered kindergarten ( percent of survival )  Calculate percent of students moving the next grade ( percent of survival ) for each school and for the district as a whole. The percent of survival for three trend periods was calculated—3, 5 and 10 years. 3

F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  The methodology included:  Percent of survival for each trend ( 3, 5 & 10 years ) was applied to the end of the first month enrollment to generate projected district wide end of first month enrollment 10 years into the future.  School specific projections were generated by grade for each school for using data from each trend.  Population projections from the Kentucky State Data Center for school age population groups were used to analyze the trend projection and select the trend most likely to represent the actual enrollment in the future. 4

F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT Demographic Information: 5 Figure 1: Franklin County Kentucky Population – 1980 to 2010 – Projected to 2030

F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT Demographic Information: US Census Age GroupCensus 1990Census 2000Census 2010 Under 52,8142,8992, ,4069,2599, ,7576,6726, ,89322,97223, ,2735,8856,882 Total44,14347,68749,285 Under 56.4%6.1% %19.4%18.8% %14.0%12.8% %48.2%48.4% %12.3%14.0% Total100.0% Source - KY State Data Center 2010– Franklin County, KY US Census by Age to Table A Franklin County Population in Age Categories – 1990 – 2010

F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT Demographic Information: Projected Population by Age 7 Age Group Projected Pop 2015 Projected Pop 2020 Projected Pop 2025 Projected Pop ,9672,9683,0013, ,7308,7268,6838, ,7095,7665,8325, ,72621,95421,27420, %6.1% %17.9%17.7% % %45.1%43.4%42.1% %19.0%20.9%22.1% Total is not exact same as projected total in Figure 1 due to rounding Source - KY State Data Center 2010– Franklin County, KY Projection by Age to 2030 Table B Kentucky Data Center 2011 Projections Franklin County Projected Population in Age Categories – 2015 – 2030

F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT Demographic Information: Change 2000 to 2010 by Race 8 TotalChange Ages 0-17Change Race Category NumberPercent NumberPercent Total Population 47,68749,2851,5983.4%10,77610, % White, Not Hispanic 41,68141, %9,1698, % AfrAm, Not Hispanic 4,4425, %1, % AmIndian, Alaska native, Not Hispanic % % Asian, Not Hispanic % % Native Hawaiian, Not Hispanic % % Other Race, Not Hispanic % % Multiple Race, Not Hispanic % % Hispanic 5311, % % Table C Franklin County Population in Racial & Age Categories

F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT Demographic Information: Population in Relationship by Household Type & NumberPercent RELATIONSHIP BY HOUSEHOLD TYPE NumberPercentNumberPercentChange Total Population in Households45, %47, %1,3623.0% Total Households19, %20, %7553.8% In Family Households12, %12, %470.4% With Own children under 185, %5, % % Average Household Size % Average Family Size % Table D Franklin County Population in Relationship by Household Type & 2010

F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT Demographic Information: Housing Units & NumberPercent HOUSING UNITS NumberPercentNumberPercentChange Total Housing Units 21, %23, %1,7558.2% Occupied housing units 19, %20, %7553.8% Vacant housing units 1,5027.0%2, %1, % Owner Occupied 12, %13, %4883.8% Renter Occupied 7, %7, %2673.8% Table E Franklin County Housing Units & 2010

F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT Demographic Information: Economic Indicators 11 FROM KY KIDS COUNT 2010NumberPercent Children in Poverty 20001, % Children in Poverty 20081, % Median Household Income 2000$40,011 Median Household Income 2008$48,291 Unemployed % Unemployed 20082,2439.0% Table F Economic Conditions Affecting Franklin County Children & 2010

F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT Demographic Information: Economic Indicators 12 FROM KY KIDS COUNT 2010NumberPercent Children receiving SNAP 20001,085 Children receiving SNAP 20092,789 Children receiving WIC Children receiving WIC Free & Reduced Lunch , % Free & Reduced Lunch , % Table G Economic Conditions Affecting Franklin County Children & 2010

F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT Demographic Information: Economic Indicators 13 FROM KY KIDS COUNT 2010Number Children enrolled in KDHIP Children enrolled in KCHIP Children enrolled in Medicaid 20001,969 Children enrolled in Medicaid 20093,559 Child Support Paid 2000$2,807,516 % Child Support Collected % Child Support Paid 2010$4,610,257 % Child Support Collected % 2-Bedroom Fair Market Rent (FMR)2010$698 Hourly Wage needed to afford FMR$13.42 % renters unable to afford FMR45.0% Table H Economic Conditions Affecting Franklin County Children & 2010

F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  Enrollment History – End 1 st Month – Elementary: 14 Grade BP CL ELVElkhornHearnPM WR Elem Total Elem Projected Prim-K/G P – P – P – Total ,9502,948 Projected ,948 Total less Projected 13(21)20(10)4(5)1 2 Bldg. Capacity ,600 % Occupied 79%113%107%60%69%58%90%82% Table I-1 Enrollment by Elementary School – End of First School Month –

F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  Enrollment History – End 1 st Month – – M/S & H/S: 15 Grade BMS EMS FCHS WWHSAcademy District Total District Projected K ,950 2, Total ,1016,111 Projected ,111 Total less Projected (8)(1)58(16) (10) Bldg. Capacity , ,025 % Occupied 95%82%92%95%87% Table I-2 Enrollment by Middle and High School – End of First School Month –

F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  Enrollment History – End 1 st Month – to – K-12: 16 School Year Change % Change Bridgeport % Collins Lane % Early Learning % Elkhorn (56)-15.8% Hearn % Peaks Mill (20)-6.5% Westridge % All Elementary2,8452,8442,8652,9222, % Bondurant MS (3)-0.5% Elkhorn MS (13)-1.8% All Middle School1,3101,3531,3541,3251,337(16)-1.2% FCHS1, (24)-2.4% WWHS % All High School1,7621,7701,7201,7261, % Academy (10)-23.3% All K-12 5,9616,0105,9996,0226, % Table M End First School Month K-12 Enrollment by School to

F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  K-12 Enrollment History – to Grade P-K/G P – P – P – Sp. Ed Total 5,7805,7815,7865,7695,8435,9135,9616,0105,9996,0226,101 Change K-12 (31)15(17) (11)2379 FTE Enrolled 5,565.05,546.05,537.55,534.55,595.55,668.05,726.05,758.55,733.55,778.05,815.0 FTE Change (27)(19.0)(8.5)(3.0) (25.0) Table N K-12 Enrollment by Grade - End of First School Month to

F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  Projected 1 st Month Enrollment – – 3 Trends 18 Figure 2. Projected K-12 Enrollment Franklin County Public Schools to

F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  Projected 1 st Month Enrollment Compared to KY Data Center Projections – – 3 Trends 19 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 3 year 6,1016,1546,1626,1826,1966,2016,2416,2556,2366,2886,299 5 year 6,1016,1796,2066,2446,2876,3056,3666,4036,3966,4676, year 6,1016,1566,1556,1706,2056,2066,2526,2816,2646,3236,334 Pop 5-19 Prj9,275 8,730 8,726 % Enrl of Prj % 71.0% 71.5% % Enrl of Prj % 72.0% 73.3% % Enrl of Prj % 71.1% 71.8% Table P Comparison of Enrollment Trends to Data Center Age 5-19 Projection

F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  Projected 1 st Month Elem. Enrollment – 3 Year Trend: 20 Table R-1 Projected K-5 Enrollment 3-Year Trend End of First School Month Grade BP CL ELVElkhornHearnPM WR Elem Total Prior Year M1 Prim-K/G P – P – P – Total ,9532,950 Prior Year M ,950 Bldg. Capacity ,600 % Occupied 93.6%92.7%116.0%55.4%66.4%60.4%87.2%82.0%

F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  Projected 1 st Month M/S & H/S Enrollment – 3 Year Trend: 21 Table R-2 Projected K-12 Enrollment 3-Year Trend End of First School Month Grade BMS EMS FCHS WWHSAcademy District Total Prior Year M1 K-5 2,9532, Total , ,1546,101 Prior Year M ,101 Bldg. Capacity , ,025 % Occupied 99.4%81.6%96.5%94.1% 87.6%

F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  Special Needs Enrollment – : 22 The 3.9% decline of all disabled students was in contrast to the 2.3% increase for all students during the period from to Table S Student with Disabilities Child Count for SEEK Calculation to Category Change% Change Severe % Moderate % Speech % Total %

F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT Free & Reduced Lunch Students : 23 Table T-1 Elementary Students Receiving Free & Reduced Lunch End of 1 st School Month – Category Bridgeport Collins Lane Early Learning ElkhornHearn Peaks Mill Westridge All Elem FREE LUNCH ,513 REDUCED TOTAL ,725 TOTAL ENROLLED ,950 % FREE LUNCH 49.8%45.9%55.2%64.2%40.4%69.6%42.9%51.3%

F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT Free & Reduced Lunch Students : 24 Table T-2 Middle/High Students Receiving Free & Reduced Lunch End of 1 st School Month – Category Bondurant MSElkhorn MSFCHSWWHS AcademyDistrict FREE LUNCH ,786 REDUCED TOTAL ,233 TOTAL ENROLLED ,101 % FREE LUNCH40.9%52.4%37.0%31.7%90.9%45.7%

F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  Students on Free Lunch – : 25 Figure 4. Percent Franklin County K-12 Students Receiving Free Lunch to

F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  Projected Enrollment & Capacity – – 3 Yr Trend 26 Table U Projected Enrollment and Student Capacity 3 Year Trend Grade Level 11/1212/1313/1414/1515/1616/1717/1818/1919/2020/2121/22 K-5 Enrollment 2,9502,9533,0403,0413,0313,0573,0112,9902,9562,9652,958 Comb. Elem Bldg. Capacity 3,600 # Schools Ave. Enrolled Per School % Occupied 81.9%82.0%84.4%84.5%84.2%84.9%83.6%83.1%82.1%82.4%82.2% 6-8 Enrollment 1,3371,3651,3541,3481,3411,3731,4361,4431,4951,4371,422 Comb. M/S Bldg. Capacity 1,525 # Schools Ave. Enrolled Per School % Occupied 87.7%89.5%88.8%88.4%87.9%90.0%94.2%94.6%98.0%94.2%93.2% 9-12 Enrollment 1,8141,8361,7681,7931,8241,7711,7941,8221,7851,8861,919 H/S 1,900 # Schools Ave. Enrolled Per School % Occupied 95.5%96.6%93.1%94.4%96.0%93.2%94.4%95.9%93.9%99.3%101.0% K-12 Enrollment 6,1016,1546,1626,1826,1966,2016,2416,2556,2366,2886,299 District Bldg Capacity 7,025 Excludes Portable Classrooms % Occupied 86.8%87.6%87.7%88.0%88.2%88.3%88.8%89.0%88.8%89.5%89.7%

F RANKLIN C O E NROLLMENT & D EMOGRAPHIC R EPORT  Summary 27 Franklin County Public Schools are expected to experience slow enrollment growth in the next 10 years. If the trend of the past 5 years continues the school district’s number of students with disabilities may decline or at least not increase at a faster rate than overall enrollment. Based on the KY Data Center’s 2011 population projection of the 5-19 age category Franklin County’s percent of all non-white students will increase with a decline in the percent of whites.