Famine Early Warning Systems Network CURRENT CLIMATE SITUATION AND FORECAST June 16 Kabul, Afghanistan.

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Presentation transcript:

Famine Early Warning Systems Network CURRENT CLIMATE SITUATION AND FORECAST June 16 Kabul, Afghanistan

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK1 OUTLINE  CURRENT AGRO-CLIMATIC CONDITIONS  WEATHER FORECAST  FLOOD RISK

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK2 CURRENT AGRO-CLIMATIC CONDITIONS

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK3 Current agro-climatic conditions

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK4 Current agro-climatic conditions

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK5 Current agro-climatic conditions MODIS 8-day Snow Cover Extent Current Period vs. Monthly Average ( )

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK6 Current agro-climatic conditions

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK7 Current agro-climatic conditions

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK8 FORECAST

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK9 One week precipitation forecast

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK10 Hazards Outlook June , 2015

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK11 Two weeks precipitation forecast

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK12 Precipitation Forecast Jul – Sep 2015 The models historically perform well regionally and forecast average to below average precipitation

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK13 Precipitation Forecast Oct – Dec 2015 above average precipitation

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK14 Temperature Forecast Jul – Sep 2015 The forecast is for average to above-average temperatures

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK15 Monsoon: The June to September Indian Monsoon is expected to bring average to below-average rain to eastern Afghanistan due to the El Niño event. No unusually heavy rains that would lead to large-scale flooding are expected. Temperature: Average to above-average temperatures are expected from June to August. Temperature anomalies are not expected to have an adverse impact on availability of irrigation water for the remainder of the 2015 cropping seasons. 2015/2016 Wet Season: The forecast continuation of El Niño through early 2016 will result in above-average precipitation for Afghanistan during the coming wet season from October 2015 to May ASSUMPTIONS

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__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK28 Province est. tot population (CSO ) est. population at high and medium risk % of est. population at high and medium risk Badakhshan935,73825, % Baghlan894,83821, % Balkh1,298,24715, % Ghazni1,208,55916, % Jawzjan530,7511, % Kunduz990,937105, % Takhar966,576125, % TOTAL6,825,646311, %

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__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK30 Thanks