UNIVERSITY OF THESSALY DEPARTMENT OF PLANING AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT LABORATORY OF DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIAL ANALYSES GEOGRAPHY OF FERTILITY IN GREECE: COHORT ANALYSIS USING CENSUS DATA SOFIANOPOULOU KAKIA LDSA

Geography of fertility in Greece: cohort analysis using census data Main Objectives Are there spatial differences of the cohort fertility in Greece? Is there convergence or divergence at municipality level between the fertility of the old and the new cohorts ? Are there different growth rates of cohort fertility evolution among the spatial entities?

Geography of fertility in Greece: cohort analysis using census data Data Greek Census 2001 Distribution of women (Greek nationality) present at the time of Census by number of born alive children Indices Completed fertility CFR a, CFR b, a=cohort and b=cohort Variation Index: (CFR b -CFR a )*100/CFR a, % of women without children % of women having more than 5 children (live births)

Geography of fertility in Greece: cohort analysis using census data Methodology Choice 2 groups of generations ( and ) Exclude spatial entities having less than 20 women and Δ >= +- 20%, where Δ= (CFR t+1 -CFR t )*100/CFR t, t=cohort Classification and mapping of CFRa, CFRb and Variation Index Statistical analysis, based on relevant indicators, in order to see if there is convergence or divergence of completed fertility between “old” and “new cohorts” at municipality level Cross-tab analysis, (CFRa by Variation Index), in order to detect the growth rate of convergence or divergence among the spatial entities Cluster analysis (K-means, 3 variables) and mapping

Geography of fertility in Greece: cohort analysis using census data The completed fertility in Greece is falling through the generations. The results in the level of the country reveal that there is a fall of the indices by 8,2% between 1925 and 1954.

Geography of fertility in Greece: cohort analysis using census data Based on natural movement data, the longitudinal analysis gives similar results for the completed fertility, with slightly lower values

Geography of fertility in Greece: cohort analysis using census data Classification around the national mean Lowest values: Region of Athens, Central-East Greece, Thessalonica, Corfu and Lesvos Higher values: Dodecanese, South Crete, West Peloponnesus, Central-West Greece, Central Macedonia and Thrace Generally the majority of the municipalities are around or above the population replacement limit (2,2-2,3 children/woman)

Geography of fertility in Greece: cohort analysis using census data Classification around the national mean Fall of the upper level, by one child per woman The group of the lowest fertility units has ameliorate its values. At the opposite there is a decline of the completed fertility on the higher groups Again the majority of the municipalities are around or above the population replacement limit (2,1 children/woman)

Geography of fertility in Greece: cohort analysis using census data Classification around the national mean In the majority of municipalities the completed fertility is falling In the Central-East Greece and Peloponnesus as well as East Crete the CFR is increasing Maximum decrease in the areas where the CFR was too high at the start point First sign of convergence

Geography of fertility in Greece: cohort analysis using census data the Conv.Index > Conv.Index (=> convergence between the two groups of cohorts) Statistical Analysis of Completed Fertility Statistical indices Cohort Cohort Mean (X)2,12042,0915 Standard Deviation0,354250,25319 Variation17%12% 1st quartile (Q1)1,89131,9391 2nd quartile (Q2)2,06632,0722 3rd quartile (Q3)2,29212,2157 Minimum1,361,16 Maximum4,793,61 Convergence Index (X-Q2)*100/(Q3-Q1)13%7%

Geography of fertility in Greece: cohort analysis using census data Repartition of cohorts Completed Fertility groups by the Variation Index groups ( %) Variation Index CFR =<-15,0 -10,0_-14,9 -7,0_-9,9-5,0_-6,9-3,0_-4,9 2,9_-2,9 3,0-4,9 5,.0-6,9 7,0-9,9 10,0-14,9 >=15,0 Total Number of cases =<1,69 4,61,53,01,525,810,63,010,613,625, ,70-1,89 0,6 1,94,432,78,210,716,417,07, ,90-1,99 3,42,55,030,310,911,817,710,97, ,00-2,191,26,55,711,011,437,86,97,76,52,92, ,20-2,3910,69,915,913,9 19,97,32,04,62, ,40-2,5918,6 14,312,910,012,92,9 4,31, ,60-2,7932,429,42,9 17,78,82, ,80-4,7952,623,72,613,22,65, The municipalities having high CFR in the cohort mark decrease with faster rates. On the other hand those having low CFR in the cohort mark increase with slow rates

Geography of fertility in Greece: cohort analysis using census data Cluster analysis with 3 variables: Completed Fertility % of women without children % of women having more than 5 live born children The majority of spatial entities are in the medium fertility level, with CFR faintly above the population replacement limit (2,2-2,3 children/woman) and low percentages (<10%) of women without children, or having more than 5 children (<5%)

Geography of fertility in Greece: cohort analysis using census data Cluster analysis with 3 variables Completed Fertility % of women without children % of women having more than 5 live born children The majority of spatial entities are in the medium fertility level, with CFR in the population replacement limit (2,1 children/woman) and low % of women without children (<8%), or having more than 5 children (<2%) The number of municipalities with maximum fertility levels declined and there is a slight increase of those with relatively high or high fertility levels

Geography of fertility in Greece: cohort analysis using census data Conclusions The decline of fertility in Greece is a fact. The lifetime fertility is falling through cohorts at the country level There is a convergence between the fertility levels of the municipalities (Total = 1033 units, 883 for our analysis) The pattern of fertility in Greece was a mosaic of spatial entities with different levels of fertility at the start point But due to the recent tendencies, we tend to a relative fertility spatial homogenization The rate of convergence is different for the spatial entities and depends from the level of fertility (low, medium, high) at the start point