1. SUB-NATIONAL FOREIGN- BORN POPULATION PROJECTIONS THE CASE OF ANDALUSIA Silvia Bermúdez, Juan A. Hernández & Joaquín Planelles Andalusian Statistical Office

2. Index  Andalusia in Context  Nationality versus Place of Birth  Demographic Phenomena  Main Results

3. Index  Andalusia in Context  Nationality versus Place of Birth  Demographic Phenomena  Main Results

4. Andalusia in Context 1. Andalusia is located in Europe

5. Andalusia in Context 1. Andalusia is located in Europe 2. It is a part of Spain

6. Andalusia in Context 1. Andalusia is located in Europe 2. It is a part of Spain 3. It is down south of Iberian Peninsula

7. Andalusia in Context 17 Regions Big within Spanish context: 1 st in terms of population. 8 million, 18% share 2 nd in terms of size, 17% share

8. Andalusia in Context 50 Provinces (8 in Andalusia) 8.112 municipalities (770 in Andalusia)

9. Andalusia in Context Madrid and the Coast 2 out of 6 half-million cities

10. Andalusia in Context Madrid and the Coast 2 out of 6 half-million cities … And immigrants follow the very same pattern

11. Index  Andalusia in Context  Nationality versus Place of Birth  Demographic Phenomena  Main Results

12. Nationality vs Place of birth 1. Andalusian population projection have traditionally distinguished 3 variables…. AgeSexLocation Origin of individuals

13. Nationality vs Place of birth 2. The choice of the definition is mainly based on data availability & plausibility of identifying demographic clusters ProsCons As nationality changes, it may interact with renewable phenomena Offspring nationality Additional assumptions on future naturalizations Nationality data easily avialable

14.  Long term convergence?  Second generations  How many “origin” groups?  Different patterns for fertility, ¿mortality? & mobility converge on the long term  Not considered separately  5 groups based on the place of birth with unique population structures & demographic behaviours Further questions….we have assumed… Nationality vs Place of birth

15. 1. Born in Spain

16. Nationality vs Place of birth 2. Born in Africa Male thing, labor ages

17. Nationality vs Place of birth 3. Born in Latin America Female thing, labor ages

18. Nationality vs Place of birth 4. Born in UE15 Retirement thing

19. Nationality vs Place of birth 5. Other Balanced, labor ages.

20. Index  Andalusia in Context  Nationality versus Place of Birth  Demographic Phenomena  Main Results

21. Demographic Phenomena 1. Changes in fertility patterns are similar to other European Regions Though changes were more drastic and they began later

22. Demographic Phenomena 1. Immigrant fertility is greater and it starts sooner

23. Demographic Phenomena 1. Immigrant fertility is greater and it starts sooner … But immigrant population is heterogeneous

24. Demographic Phenomena 1. Immigrant fertility is greater and it starts sooner … But immigrant population is heterogeneous

25. Demographic Phenomena 2. Mean life duration has experienced a dramatic change in Andalusia

26. Demographic Phenomena 2. Mean life duration has experienced a dramatic change in Andalusia … So we assumed those trends to continue in the future

27. Demographic Phenomena 2. It was impossible to record differential place of birth mortality patterns Impossibility to record differential mortality patterns Not clear results from abroad: “Salmon bias” Emigration selects healthy individuals Immigrant population are young Strong positive correlation income vs health status

28. Demographic Phenomena 3. Migration analysis and modeling issues Volatility Data Quality Complexity Most volatile phenomena Difficult to deal with when forecasting Migration data presents lower quality than other phenomena Difficult coverage of targeted population Sub- phenomena based on the flow direction & geographical scope Internal & External, In & out migrations

29. Demographic Phenomena 3. Migration sub- phenomena decomposition As many times as birth groups selected Inside Andalusia In & Out Other Spanish regions InOut Foreign countries InOut

30. Index  Andalusia in Context  Nationality versus Place of Birth  Demographic Phenomena  Main Results

31. Main Results 1. Population will continue growing in the coming years, due to its natural growth potential Nonetheless, population is likely to fall in the long run

32. Main Results 2. Despite expected increase in fertility, births are likely to fall

33. Main Results 2. Despite expected increase in fertility, births are likely to fall Despite expected reduction in mortality, casualties are likely increase

34. Main Results 3. Ageing. Baseline

35. Main Results 3. Ageing. Low growth

36. Main Results 3. Ageing. High growth

37. Main Results 3. Population is ageing

38. Main Results 3. Population is ageing … But should we use static indicators of ageing? 2010 Population over 80+ 4,0% Population over 65+ 14,9% 2025 Population over 80+ 5,5% Population over 65+ 18,8% 2050 Population over 80+ 9,8% Population over 65+ 29,1% Dynamic indicators may be required to compare the so called “senior groups” in a context of continuous Improvement of Life Expectancy & Disability-free life expectancy rates

39. Main Results 4. Foreign- born population is likely to increase in the future.

40. Main Results 4. Foreign- born population is likely to increase in the future. … But in the long term, immigrant population will get older too.

41. Main Results 5. Data access. http://www.iea.junta-andalucia.es/proyecc

42. Contact information Thank you  jantonio.hernandez@juntadeandalucia.es  silvia.bermudez.parrado@juntadeandalucia.es  joaquin.planelles@juntadeandalucia.es