Transitology & Consolidation Plan for Today 1. Concluding analysis of pacts and transitology. 2. Distinguish among definitions of consolidation. 3. Survey authors’ claims on tasks/ areas of consolidation in new democracies.

Concluding Analysis on Strategic Actor Approaches

How important are pacts for successful transition to democracy?  Some pacted transitions have later reverted to authoritarianism.  E.g. Venezuela  In other cases, no pact but apparent successful democratization.  E.g. Czechoslovakia, Baltic states  Thus, any causal impact?

Analysis of Transition Model  What causes initial liberalization? Initial trigger for democratization can’t be predicted.  How do we really distinguish characters? Moderate softliner or thorough democratizer?  How to know where balance of power lies?  Is the model teleological – presupposes democratic outcome?

THE CONCEPT OF DEMOCRATIC CONSOLIDATION

A political regime in which democracy … has become “the only game in town.” Consolidation (Linz & Stepan):

3 Aspects of Consolidation (Linz & Stepan) 1. Behavioural 2. Attitudinal 3. Constitutional

“Two-turnover test”: two elections occur with peaceful changes of parties in power. Consolidation (Huntington):

Must use non-circular definition (separate from stability). Process of achieving broad regime legitimation among elites and masses. Consolidation (Diamond):

Russian lack of democratic legitimacy polling data (Levada Centre, Moscow)

What consolidation is not about (Linz & Stepan) 1. Consolidation doesn’t mean regime won’t become unconsolidated at some point. 2. Quality of democracy different from consolidation and different kinds of democracy possible.

Necessary Developments to Promote Consolidation (Linz & Stepan, Diamond)

Arenas of regime that must develop for consolidation (Linz & Stepan) 1. Civil society 2. Political society 3. Rule of law 4. State bureaucracy 5. Economic society

Tasks to Foster Consolidation (Diamond) 1. Democratic deepening. 2. Political institutionalization. 3. Regime performance.

Democratic Deepening 1. Making formal institutions more liberal, accountable, representative, accessible. 2. No illiberal, electoral democracies during third wave have achieved consolidation. 1. E.g. Russia, Venezuela: deconsolidation.

Political Institutionalization 1. Movement to routinized, predictable patterns of political behavior around common rules and procedures types of institutions involved: 1. State apparatus. 2. Institutions of democratic representation and governance. 3. Structures that ensure rule of law.

Regime Performance Economic Performance 1. Long record of economic performance can build “reservoir of legitimacy” to weather crises. 2. Cannot be widespread perception that few are benefiting disproportionately. 1. E.g. Mexico, Russia, South Africa. 3. Economic hardship generally doesn’t topple democracies.

Regime Performance Political Performance  People care about political goods as well as economic. 1. Order: physical safety, peace. 2. Prestige of country in international affairs (sometimes). 3. Political freedom, accountability, lack of corruption.