1. 1. Supplement Carothers’ critique of the transition paradigm with specific empirical challenges for 3 rd wave electoral democracies. 2. Conclude by speculating on likely trends in regime change. 3. Outline exam format and formulate exam strategy through practice questions.

3. 3. Belief in the crucial importance of elections.  Often elections don’t lead to much else in democratization.

4.  Basically free & fair elections for president but no checks & balances.  Not “consolidated” in terms of institutionalization, but may be stable & enduring.  E.g. Venezuela, Argentina, Peru, Russia.

5. 4. Belief that structural conditions will not strongly affect the initiation or outcome of democratic transition.  May be true of initial transition, but socioeconomic “preconditions” very important for successful further democratization.

6. 4. Belief that structural conditions will not strongly affect the initiation or outcome of democratic transition.  Cultural/ historical legacy: Central and Eastern Europe, former USSR. ▪ “Distance from Berlin” pattern shows salience of history with democracy and cultural integration with Europe.

7. 4. Belief that structural conditions will not strongly affect the initiation or outcome of democratic transition.  Informal institutions: “unwritten rules, norms, and social conventions rooted in shared expectations and reinforced by social sanctions” (Collins).  E.g. Corruption, organized crime, clans, other patron-client networks.

8.  Formally democratic institutions established after fall of USSR.  Relations among clans really determine power and resource distributions.  Clans = large kinship-based networks.  Asset-stripping and “crowd out” democratic processes.  Prevent rule of law.

9. 5. Assumption that democratic transitions are being created in functioning, stable states.  State-building has been a much bigger task than analysts and foreign donors imagined.

11. 1. If we should discard transition paradigm, then what proposed to replace it? 2. Countries that haven’t fully democratized should still be measured by how far they are along the path.

13. 1. Third wave stalled and may be entering reverse. 1. Freedom House 2006 Report: 1.90 countries “free” (47%) 2.58 countries “partly free” (30%) 2. Data suggest stagnant period with ~ equal numbers of states improving vs. dismantling democracy & human rights conduct in recent years.

14. 1. Main problem is democratic regimes facing serious challenges to depth or quality of democracy. 1. More and more hybrid regimes with formal institutions of democracy (esp. elections) alongside undemocratic practices. 2. Question of international normative context if US in decline.