InMoSion: Science Shop for Innovative Mobility Solutions for Mobility Challenged Europeans 3rd INTERNATIONAL MEETING ANKARA, TURKEY Partnering: Civil Engineering Department Middle East Technical University (METU) Ankara, Turkey

WP2 User Needs for a Demand Driven Paratransit System Leader: METU Person-months: 14 Partners: UTH HIT METU EIVP CTL SRM MP Start-End : 1 st -12 th month Deliverables: D.2.1: Report on the survey (completed questionnaires) (Month 6) – Part I  D.2.2: Analysis of the questionnaires and documentation of results (Month 12) – Part II  Objectives: This work package aims to identify all the needs that may be involved in a system like this and will help to integrate these needs into process’s design and finally into model’s deployment.

WP2 -Part II Work Description The statistical analysis of the survey mainly deals with  Mobility in the region  Forecast for the travel demand in the region  Forecast for the market share of paratransit

WP2 - Part II Statistical analysis of the survey (as presented at Bologna Meeting) TASK 1: Evaluation of Randomness of Sample TASK 2: Origin-Destination Matrices for the Survey Sample TASK 3: Mobility Analysis TASK 4: Trip Characteristics TASK 5: Evaluation of Existing Transport System TASK 6: Expectations from Paratransit System TASK 7: Regression Analysis for Trip Number Estimation TASK 8: Market Share Estimation  Guidelines on know-how for local authorities

WP2 - Part II Statistical analysis of the survey (as presented at Bologna Meeting) TASK 1: Evaluation of Randomness of Sample TASK 2: Origin-Destination Matrices  Gender Based  Departure Time Based  Trip Duration Based TASK 3: Mobility Analysis 3.1: Weekly Trip Number Based Mobility Analysis  Gender Based  Age Based  Income Based Mobility Analysis  Employment and Main Occupation Based

TASK 4: Trip Characteristics  Home Based Trips with Returns  Commute Pattern in the Sample Data TASK 7: Regression Analysis for Trip Number Estimation  Aggregate Weekly Trip Number Estimation  Linear Regression Models The Total Number of Weekly Trips Estimates for Age Groups Based on Regression Models. WP2 - Part II Statistical analysis of the survey (as presented at Bologna Meeting)

WP2 - Part II Statistical analysis of the survey (After Bologna Meeting) TASK 3.2: Distance Based Mobility Analysis  Two distance based mobility measures are defined  Person.km mobility (person.km/traveler/week)  Average trip length (person.km/trip)  person.km/person.trips  Gender Based  Age Based  Departure Time Based  Income Based  Employment Status/Main Occupation Based Cross tables are prepared

WP2 - Part II Statistical analysis of the survey (After Bologna Meeting) TASK 5: Evaluation of the Existing Transport System Participants are asked for the evaluation of the existing transportation system in order to determine the insufficiencies and to make the system better. What is your opinion of the existing public transport system ?

WP2 - Part II Statistical analysis of the survey (After Bologna Meeting) TASK 5: Evaluation of the Existing Transport System  Age Factor  Income Level Factor  Main Occupation Factor

WP2 - Part II Statistical analysis of the survey (After Bologna Meeting) TASK 6: Expectations from Paratransit System  Willingness to use  Willingness to pay  Willingness to Wait to be Picked-Up  Travel Time Preferences  Willingness to Wait for Pick-up/Drop-Off Stops  Willingness to Schedule Trips in Advance  Personal Expectations   Trip Reservation  Perception Evaluation 

WP2 - Part II Statistical analysis of the survey (After Bologna Meeting) TASK 8: Market Share Estimation Trip level scenario analysis is designed such that for every reported trip  Using origin-destination information  travel times and costs are determined for available modes (taxi, car and public transport)  The modal split for each traveler is “estimated” from questionnaire  number of weekly trips  public transit use frequency  taxi use frequency

WP2 - Part II Statistical analysis of the survey (After Bologna Meeting) TASK 8: Market Share Estimation For an assumed paratransit price scenario, desired limits are checked  the price vs participant’s desired cost limit  travel time vs participant’s desired travel time limit  If both are satisfied  assign the trip as a “potential paratransit trip”  Total number of potential paratransit trips are obtained

WP2 - Part II Statistical analysis of the survey (After Bologna Meeting) TASK 8: Market Share Estimation  Travel times and costs are determined for taxi, car and public transport. V taxi = V car =70 kph V pub.tr = 50kph + 10 min waiting time for public transport Travel Time Public Transport Cost A table provided by Phillipi Region 1.2€ for distance ≤ 12 km 1.2+(distance-12)*0.1€ for 12 km < distance ≤ 17 km 1.7 € for 17 km < distance ≤ 25 km 2.5 € for distance > 25 km

WP2 - Part II Statistical analysis of the survey (After Bologna Meeting) Price Scenarios 1.7€ 2.0€ 2.3€ 2.5€ 2.7€ 3.0€

WP2 - Part II Statistical analysis of the survey (After Bologna Meeting) TASK 8: Market Share Estimation  For relatively shorter travel times (such as taxi or 1.5 times taxi travel time),  cost is the main criterion in decision making,  there is almost a constant level of demand for the price range of 2€ to 2.3€  uppler limit can be charged without significant level of loss of demand.  Almost negative linear relation is observed between demand and price up to 2.7€,  not sensitive to cost beyond this limit  almost a constant level of demand desire to use paratransit

WP2 - Part II Statistical analysis of the survey (After Bologna Meeting) TASK 8: Market Share Estimation  As the travel time increases, the potential number of paratransit decreases  “0.5bus” level travel times generate more potential than the “1.5taxi” level  more shorter trips in the regions (average taxi and bus trip travel times are calculated as approximately 10 minutes and 25 minutes).

A General Paratransit Market Estimation Study A document describing general steps:  Travel Demand Analysis Step 1 Trip Generation and Attraction Step 2 Trip Distribution Step 3: Mode Choice Step 4: Traffic (Route) Assignment  Market Share Estimation for Paratransit i) Logit Approaches ii) Simulation-/Scenario-based Approaches

A General Paratransit Market Estimation Study The aimed outcomes would be determination of relationships between a) price and ridership, b) travel time and ridership, c) price and travel time. Ridership P2P2 P1P1 Price