0. Economic Impacts on Transportation of the US/Canada Border
Workplan & Expected Study Outcomes
Transportation leadership you can trust.
presented to Border Transportation Working Group
presented by Michael Fischer Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
April 22, 2008

1. Overview of Project
Main objective of study is to assess the impact of delay at border crossings and resulting changes in user benefits and broad macroeconomic measures
Key issues:
Definition and measurement of delay
Trends of delay patterns at border crossings
Breakdown of impacts across different modes
Truck traffic
Passenger vehicles [if data available]
Outputs of analytical task are user dis-benefits by mode and macroeconomic impacts

2. Progression of Study Tasks
Task 1: Work Plan
Phase I: Methodology and Background Research
Collection of available/relevant data
Assessment of trends
Case study comparisons
How can impacts be measured and modeled using economic impact tool?
Phase II: User Dis-benefits and Macroeconomic Impacts
Employment
Income
GDP
Task 2: Overview of Trade Data
Task 3: Literature Review
Task 4: Development of Methodology
Task 5: User Dis-benefits & Macroeconomic Impacts (TREDIS)

3. Task 1: Detailed Work Plan
Workplan defines the specific tasks and deliverables of Phase I
Deliverables are technical memoranda for each task and a final report that combines individual documents
Workplan outlines how individual tasks will feed into each other and allow for the quantifiation of economic impacts of border delay

4. Task 2: Overview of Economic Trade Data
Aggregate Economic and trade data obtained from a variety of sources [Global Insight, Statistics Canada, BTS, US Census, etc]
Trade data by commodity & time series
Border Crossing Information
Data measured in dollars [trade] and vehicle movements [traffic] differentiated by surface mode
Passenger trip purpose unlikely to be available
Aggregate trade forecasts between US and Canada to be obtained from Global Insight

5. Task 3: Literature Review
Literature review captures previously completed studies on border delay and transportation costs
Emphases gathered from previous studies:
Selected methodologies
Available and collected data
Outputs from previous studies [performance measures]
Impacts of new border security measures on delay
Typical cost of delay based on previous studies
Task will guide the development of the methodology [Task 4] and calibration of economic model [Task 5]

6. Data Requirements
Literature review allows for assessment of available data sources and how data was used in other studies
Methodology includes separate impacts for passenger and truck traffic
Source of any passenger traffic data is still uncertain whereas data exists on truck traffic
Development of Methodology will determine specific data requirements for economic model
Definition of “delay” at the border
Congested vs. free flow conditions
Changes in traffic performance measures [VMT, VHT]

7. Data Requirements [cont.]
Truck data for different ports of entry will likely be obtained from ATRI
Data can be differentiated by time-of-day and distance from border
Data obtained for main border points of entry
ATRI/Qualcomm data on truck traffic
Captures approximately 10% of truck traffic in US
Average day measure of delay compared to uncongested conditions [peak vs. off-peak]
Reliability Index
Access to data as part of FHWA data sharing process

8. Task 4: Development of Methodology
Scope of Methodology:
Population and Employment
Business and Industry
Tourism and Visitor Industry
Impacts differentiated
Passenger Impacts
Freight Impacts
Measurement of Impacts using TREDIS
Increased travel time as a result of delay
Higher user dis-benefits, such as travel costs for passengers and businesses
Passengers alter trips & business experience lower productivity
Higher product prices and resource costs
Macroeconomic Impacts on GDP, Employment, Income

9. Task 4: Development of Methodology [cont.]
Definition of Study Area
Consideration of four different regions handling in excess of 70% of all truck traffic
Michigan/Ontario
New York/Ontario
Lacolle/Champlain
Pacific Highway
Each border crossing region is likely to have a different mix of passenger and freight traffic, and different mix of commodities
Different sensitivities to recurrant and non-recurrant delays

10. Task 4: Development of Methodology [cont.]
Measurement of impacts based on microeconomic theory
Border delays affect households and businesses by increasing their respective direct and indirect travel costs and therefore cause shifts in supply/demand
Passenger trips may be altered which will affect consumption expeditures at travel destination
Passengers have different sensitivities depending on purpose of travel [commuting, leisure, vacation, business]
Impact on commuters as a result of delay affects the access to labor pool by employers

11. Task 4: Development of Methodology [cont.]
Businesses experience impacts as a result of delay:
higher costs
lower productivity
Impact also felt on reliability due to just-in-time delivery schedules
Depending on relative cost and price elasticities, impacts increase wages and subsequently product prices
Changes in product and resource markets [labor & materials] impacts overall trade patterns
Exchange rate fluctuations provide additional complication

12. Task 5: Estimation of Economic Impacts Phase 2 – currently not included in WP
Inputs to model are travel-related changes resulting from new [security] policy or changing in infrastructure
TREDIS is based on:
Travel Cost Response Module [VHT and VMT turned into user benefits]
Market Access Response Module [measures changes in accessibility and connectivity]
Economic Adjustment Module [estimated indirect and induced effects]
Benefit Cost Module [accounting of all benefits/costs and computation of B-C ratios]
Evaluation of different scenarios possible

13. What will we learn from this analysis?
Determination of the economic impacts of delay on freight and passenger traffic
Estimation of wait time/delay
User dis-benefits
Impacts on different type of travellers
Freight [Impacts by industry]
Passenger [vacation, recreational, commuting, business]
Trends in border delays and future projections

14. Decision-points and next steps
Revision of detailed workplan
Development of specific schedule & timeframe for tasks deliverables
Adjusted cost estimate
Obtain feedback and direction from Transportation Border Working Group regarding:
Other sources of critical data for analysis
Direction & outputs of study