MET MET 112 Global Climate Change: Lecture 12 Controls on Climate Change Professor Menglin Jin Outline:   IPCC   CA Efforts on Energy   Kyoto Treat

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change ‘stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic human induced interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time- frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner’

MET Figure: Courtesy of IPCC

Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis WGI contribution to IPCC Third Assessment Report Summary for Policymakers (SPM) Drafted by a team of 59 Approved ‘sentence by sentence’ by WGI plenary (99 Governments and 45 scientists) 14 chapters 881 pages 120 Lead Authors 515 Contributing Authors 4621 References quoted

MET IPCC Assessment Report  IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change –Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming). –Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing (cooling) “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate” (IPCC) 1997 "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.“ "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.“ (IPCC), 2001 (IPCC), 2001 (IPCC) 2007

MET IPCC Assessment Report  IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change –Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming). –Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing (cooling) “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate” (IPCC) 1997 "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.“ "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.“ (IPCC), 2001 (IPCC), 2001 The IPCC finds that it is “very likely” that emissions of heat- trapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century. (IPCC) 2007

MET The IPCC finds that it is “very likely” that emissions of heat-trapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century.” Human Responsibility for Climate Change Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.

MET IPCC video  videos/MET%20112%20Video%20Library- MP4/future%20impact%20from%20ipcc/

MET Model Sensitivity  Models (like the atmosphere) are sensitive systems.  They can respond differently to the same radiative forcing, e.g., a doubling of CO 2 –This means that different models give different answers to the same problem –Thus, we use a range of models to determine the range of possible future scenarios.

MET Model Sensitivity  Models (like the atmosphere) are sensitive systems.  They can respond differently to the same radiative forcing, e.g., a doubling of CO 2 – –Thus, we use a range of models to determine the range of possible future scenarios.

MET Emission Scenarios  SRES (special report on emission scenarios)

MET Scenarios

MET CO 2 concentrations (amount)

MET Future Predictions: Temperature

MET Notes on Temperature Projections   Curves represent warming produced for seven scenarios by a model with average sensitivity.  Each bar on right represent range of warming produced –

MET Notes on Temperature Projections  Projected Warming: 2000 – 2100 ranges from ~1.4°C to ~5.8°C.  Curves represent warming produced for seven scenarios by a model with average sensitivity.  Each bar on right represent range of warming produced –by models of differing sensitivies for a specific scenario.

MET Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1 o C

MET Land areas are projected to warm more than the oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1 o C

MET Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990

MET Some areas are projected to become wetter, others drier with an overall increase projected Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990

MET Sea Level

MET Sea Level Rise Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990

MET

MET What percentage of electricity generation comes from the burning of natural gas? 2. 2.What percentage of transportation energy comes from natural gas burning? 3. 3.What percentage of transportation energy use comes from coal? 4. 4.If you buy an electric car, what is the mostly likely source of energy? 5. 5.Where does most residential energy come from? Class participation Questions

MET   Obviously, one of the main issues related to climate change is the burning of fossil fuels   Thus, energy use, and the continuing demand for energy are central to the challenges of climate change. Energy and Climate Change

MET

MET

MET Tons of CO2 emitted per person

MET US CO 2 Emissions  Total emissions ~ 5,788.5 million metric tons  ~ 22 metric tons per person  Industry: 35%  Transportation: 33%  Residences: 18%  Commercial: 14%  1,600 million metric tons due to personal use (~33%)

MET Automobile fuel: 38 gallons per month Natural Gas: 15 therms per month Electricity: 190 Kilowatt-hours per month Airline Miles flown 147 miles per month Total:   Latest estimate ~   Kyoto allowance (for US): ~~   To stabilize climate (550ppm)   Average US Personal Energy Use (Per Person)

MET Automobile fuel: 38 gallons per month Natural Gas: 15 therms per month Electricity: 190 Kilowatt-hours per month Airline Miles flown 147 miles per month Total:   Latest estimate ~ 17,600 lbs of CO 2   Kyoto allowance (for US):   ~11,000 pounds   To stabilize climate (550ppm)   4,700 pounds Average US Personal Energy Use (Per Person)

MET

MET Mitigation of climate change  Mitigation: –Steps taken to avoid or minimize negative environmental impacts. Mitigation can include : avoiding the impact by not taking a certain action; avoiding the impact by not taking a certain action; minimizing impacts by limiting the degree or minimizing impacts by limiting the degree or magnitude of the action; rectifying the impact by repairing or rectifying the impact by repairing or restoring the affected environment

MET Climate Change Impacts  What signals would we expect from a warmer world? –Higher average temperature –Higher maximum temperatures –Higher minimum temperatures –More precipitation –Higher sea level –etc  What ‘evidence’ do we have for changes in the 20th century?

The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These amount to an average of five per cent against 1990 levels over the five-year period over the five-year period The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on entered into force on 16 February 2005

MET The Kyoto Protocol  A United Nations sponsored effort: –Calls for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions by industrialized countries of 5.2 per cent below 1990 levels. –The Protocol will go into force after 1.The protocol has been ratified by a minimum of 55 countries. 2.The ratifying nations comprise 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions. –Current status:  156 countries have signed accounting for 61% of global CO 2.  US not planning on signing protocol (US accounts for 36% of CO 2 emitted)  Kyoto protocol went into force in Feb 2005

MET Kyoto Protocol  Aim: –Ways to reduce increasing GHG  Goals: –Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy

MET

MET Kyoto Protocol  Aim: –Ways to reduce increasing GHG  Goals: –Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy –Protection and enhancement of sinks

MET

MET Kyoto Protocol  Aim: –Ways to reduce increasing GHG  Goals: –Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy –Protection and enhancement of sinks –Promote sustainable agriculture

MET

MET Kyoto Protocol  Aim: –Ways to reduce increasing GHG  Goals: –Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy –Protection and enhancement of sinks –Promote sustainable agriculture –Research and promote new and renewable energy –

MET Kyoto Protocol Kyoto Protocol  Aim: –Ways to reduce increasing GHG  Goals: –Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy –Protection and enhancement of sinks –Promote sustainable agriculture –Research and promote new and renewable energy –Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’ –

MET Kyoto Protocol  Aim: –Ways to reduce increasing GHG  Goals: –Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy –Protection and enhancement of sinks –Promote sustainable agriculture –Research and promote new and renewable energy –Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’ –Encourage ‘good practices’

MET Kyoto Protocol  Aim: –Ways to reduce increasing GHG  Goals: –Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy –Protection and enhancement of sinks –Promote sustainable agriculture –Research and promote new and renewable energy –Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’ –Encourage ‘good practices’ –Cut GHG from aviation

MET Kyoto Targets  Industrialized countries will reduce their collective emissions by 5.2% compared to the year 1990  Note that compared to the emissions levels by 2010 without the Protocol, this target represents ~30% cut).  Calculated as an average –over the five-year period of  Target includes six greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, HFCs, and PFCscarbon dioxidemethanenitrous oxidesulfur hexafluoride HFCsPFCs

MET  HFC - Hydrofluorocarbons  PFC- perfluorocarbon, a powerful greenhouse gas emitted during the production of aluminumPFCPFC

MET Kyoto Targets  National targets –European Union - 8% below 1990 levels –USA - 7% below 1990 –Japan - 6% below 1990 –Russia 0% (stay at 1990 levels) –Australia 8% over 1990 levels) –Developing countries (no target)  China, India etc.

MET Kyoto Targets: Developing countries  The UN Framework on Climate has agreed: 1.The largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases – 2.Per capita emissions in developing countries – 3.The share of global emissions originating in developing countries –will grow to meet their social and development needs.

MET Kyoto Targets: Developing countries  The UN Framework on Climate has agreed: 1.The largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases –has originated in developed countries; 2.Per capita emissions in developing countries –are still relatively low; 3.The share of global emissions originating in developing countries –will grow to meet their social and development needs.

MET The Kyoto Mechanisms  Under the Treaty, countries must meet their targets primarily through national measures. However, the Kyoto Protocol offers them an additional means of meeting their targets by way of three market-based mechanisms. mechanisms  The Kyoto mechanisms are:  Emissions trading – known as “the carbon market" Emissions trading  Clean development mechanism (CDM) Clean development mechanism (CDM)  Joint implementation (JI). Joint implementation (JI)

MET Kyoto Protocol Mechanisms  Keep to assigned amounts of GHG with overall worldwide reduction by at least 5% below 1990 levels by  Countries can meet their commitments together  Joint implementation -Countries can work together to meet their emission reduction targets.  Richer (annex 1) countries can help developing countries to achieve sustainable development and limit GHG increases and then claim some emission reductions for their own targets  Emissions trading - countries can trade in ‘emission units’

MET Emissions Trading  Each country has an emission limit.  If this country cannot meet it’s target, it may purchase carbon credits from other countries (on the open market) who are under their limit.  This financially rewards countries that meet their targets.   Countries also receive carbon credits through –

MET Emissions Trading  Each country has an emission limit.  If this country cannot meet it’s target, it may purchase carbon credits from other countries (on the open market) who are under their limit.  This financially rewards countries that meet their targets.  Countries also receive carbon credits through –clean energy programs (i.e. greentags) –carbon dioxide sinks (i.e. forests, oceans)

MET CO 2 emissions for various scenarios Kyoto’s eventual goal

"We will not do anything that harms our economy, because first things first are the people who live in America" - President Bush Main reasons the US will not sign the Kyoto Protocol? Economic burden No limits on developing countries (i.e. China, India) Protocol is not going to help much

MET Video for global warming debate  videos/MET%20112%20Video%20Library- MP4/climate%20feedback/ videos/MET%20112%20Video%20Library- MP4/climate%20feedback/  Moyers-1.mp4

MET Al Gore’s New Book  #pg #pg27 “Several problems, one solution”

MET Solutions - government   Kyoto Protocol   California potential leader

MET

MET

MET Solutions - personal l l Transportation l l Home l l Food l l Consumption : Top 10 Actions; Ecological Footprint

MET

MET Four R’s 1. 1.Rethink 2. 2.Reduce 3. 3.Reuse 4. 4.Recycle

MET Report Issued in 2004   Sections include: –– –– –– –– –– –– –– –– –– –– –– ––

MET Report Issued in 2004   Sections include: – –Climate projections – –Sea levels – –Extreme heat – –Health impacts – –Water resource – –Agriculture and vegetation

MET

MET What is Heat Wave?  A heat wave is a prolonged period of excessively hot weather weather  may be accompanied by high humidityhumidity  Definition recommended by WMO The definition recommended by the World Meteorological Organization is when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 °C (9 °F), the normal period being World Meteorological Organization

MET

MET Class Participation  By 2050, which city has the longest heat wave days? Why?  What are the differences between the low emission and high emission cases in terms of heat wave days by 2090 for city Riverside? How about city LA?  How many people may die due to heat wave in SF in 2050 and 2090? Your name_________

MET

MET

MET Climate change and California Average Temperature: Winter - warmer winters - snowpack declines by 70-90% by 2090 Summer – warmer summers (5-15F by 2090) 1. 1.Coastal cities: coastal erosion by sea level rise Human health: Urban air pollution/heat extremes impact most vulnerable 3. 3.Water resources: Total water, but early runoff from Sierras costly to adapt Agriculture: Major challenge to various crops industries.