Projection of West Virginia K-12 (0-19 Years Old) Population Christiadi Bureau of Business and Economic Research College of Business and Economics West Virginia University Presented at the: WEST VIRGINIA BOARD OF EDUCATION Commission on School District Governance and Administration Meeting Charleston, WV March 27-28, 2014

WV Population is not Expected to Grow as Fast as Previously Predicted Old Projection New Projection

WV population has always been among the oldest since In 2010:  WV median age = 40.5, 3 rd in the nation.  WV share of 65+ = 16.0 percent, 2 nd in the nation. Both the state and US population are aging. The path of aging, however, is different:  Between 2000 and 2010, the old & young population in the nation are both growing but the old is growing faster.  In the state, older population is growing while young population is declining. WV vs. US Demographics

Sources: Decennial censuses, U.S. Census Bureau Between 2000 and 2010 Population in the Younger Age Groups Declined, Population in the Older Age Groups Rose Thousands

In the next Two Decades, Population in the Younger Age Groups is Expected to Continue to Decline Source: 2010 Census, U.S. Census Bureau

WV Population 0-19 has been Declining since 1970 Source: 2010 U.S. Census. U.S. Census Bureau Thousands

K-12 Head-Count Enrollment, WV Note: 2002 means academic year. Source: WV Department of Education

Source: “Early Childhood Effect on FTE Enrollment History” WV County Boards of Education, 2014 K-12 FTE Enrollment with vs. without Early Childhood Enrolment

Source: Author’s calculations of the West Virginia Department of Education head-count enrollment data Cohort: Enrolled (Head-Count) in Grade K in to Grade Progression: Cohort Analysis Thousands

Estimated Population 18+ Enrolled in High School in 2011 Thousands Source: Author’s calculations of the US Census Bureau’s 2012 American Community Survey data

Source: 2010 U.S. Census. U.S. Census Bureau Thousands What Would Happen to WV Population 0-19 in the Next Two Decades?

Source: 2010 U.S. Census. U.S. Census Bureau Thousands What Would Happen to WV Population 0-19 in the Next Two Decades? ?

 Birth Rate  The Number of Women at Child- bearing Age (15-44)  Migration Factors Determining Population 0-19 in WV

General Fertility Rate, WV and the US General Fertility Rate = Total Births per 1000 Women Years of Age. Sources: Decennial Censuses, U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics Reports (NVSR) and the WV Bureau for Public Health, Health Statistics Center

Births and Deaths, WV vs. the US West VirginiaUnited States Sources: U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics Reports (NVSR) and the WV Bureau for Public Health, Health Statistics Center.

The Number of Women at Child-bearing Age (15-44) is Declining Sources: Decennial censuses, U.S. Census Bureau Thousands

.. and is expected to Continue to Decline Source: 2010 U.S. Census. U.S. Census Bureau Assuming Death & Migration are 0: Total in 2010 = B + C + D = thousand Total in 2020 = A + B + C = thousand  a 12.6 thousand decline A B C D

WV Net-Migration,

Sources: US Census Bureau 2010 Census and Author’s calculations of vital statistics data from the West Virginia Bureau for Public Health data, Health Statistics Center. Thousands What Would Happen to WV Population 0-19 in the Next Two Decades?

Estimated Accumulated Births vs. Population 0-19, WV Thousands Sources: 2010 Census, U.S. Census Bureau and 2014 WV Population Projection, Bureau of Business and Economic Research

WV Population 0-19, 1970 to 2030 Sources: Decennial censuses, U.S. Census Bureau and the 2014 WV Population Projection Bureau of Business and Economic Research, West Virginia University

Absolute Change of Population 0-19 Years Old West Virginia Sources: Author’s calculations

Percent Change of Population 0-19 Years Old West Virginia Sources: Author’s calculations

Percent Change of Population 0-19 Years Old by County, WV Source: Author’s calculations

WV population is aging WV population 0-19 is declining as a result of:  Baby boomers get older  Decline in births  Migration? WV young population (0-19) is expected to continue to decline at least in the next decade Maintaining K-12 enrollment will be a challenge Counties with declining enrollment is expected to see continued decline in enrollment Summary For other questions on demographic issues in the state, contact: