Monetary Policy Committee GDP growth and Inflation Outlook Dr A. Aubeeluck (Head - Economic Research Division) and Dr A. Madhou (Chief - Economic Research.

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Presentation transcript:

Monetary Policy Committee GDP growth and Inflation Outlook Dr A. Aubeeluck (Head - Economic Research Division) and Dr A. Madhou (Chief - Economic Research Division) 14 July 2014

© Bank of Mauritius Technical Specifications 2

© Bank of Mauritius Global Output Growth E2015E E BearBaseBullBearBaseBull Global G Emerging Markets Source: Morgan Stanley Research (June 2014)  World Bank global growth projections have been marked down from 3.2 percent in January 2014 to 2.8 percent  Notwithstanding the early weaknesses, global growth is expected to pick up as the year progresses.

© Bank of Mauritius Assumptions for FPAS  Implicit inflation target is assumed to be 4%  Potential output growth is assumed to be 4.5%  Trend level of domestic real interest rate is 1%  Trend change in the real exchange rate is -4%  Trend level of foreign real interest rate is 1%  Foreign inflation target is assumed to be 2% 4

© Bank of Mauritius GDP Growth Forecast  GDP growth is projected to reach 3.7 percent in 2014Q3 and 4.1 percent in 2014Q4  Growth outlook for the year 2014: 3.4 – 3.6 percent 5  However, over the previous quarters, the forecast error of the core model has not been within tolerable margins. The core model is presently being upgraded and remains a work –in-progress.

© Bank of Mauritius Medium-Term Forecasts  The core model forecasts inflation to fluctuate within the 4-5 percent band throughout the projected period.  However, over the previous quarters, the forecast error of the core model has not been within tolerable margins. The core model is presently being upgraded and remains a work-in-progress. 6 VariableFrequency2014Q32014Q42015Q12015Q22015Q32015Q4 CPI% (Y-o-y) CPI% (Q-o-q)

© Bank of Mauritius Baseline Assumptions for VECM & BVAR  Key Repo rate is assumed to remain unchanged as at end of June  Three-month Treasury-bill is assumed to remain unchanged for the months April to June.  CPI Europe is expected to grow at the rate of 0.7% as at 2014Q2 to 1.3% as at 2015Q3 (Reuters Poll).  Private sector credit is assumed to grow at 2 percent monthly.  GDP Europe is projected to rise from 0.2% as at 2014Q2 to 0.4% by 2015Q3 (Reuters Poll). 7

© Bank of Mauritius Near-Term Forecasts 8 Model2014Q32014Q4 VECM BVAR  The forecast results of the VECM and BVAR are robust for the 1 st and 2 nd quarters only.  In-sample forecast errors (RMSE) of VECM and BVAR have been relatively low.

© Bank of Mauritius Comparison of Forecasts Growth ForecastInflation Forecast Domestic Agency Bank of Mauritius 3.4 – – 4.2 Statistics Mauritius 3.5n.a International Agencies IMF World Bank 4.1n.a Economist Intelligence Unit African Economic Outlook (AFDB, OECD & UNDP) Private Sector (domestic) Pluriconseil KPMG (Mauritius) n.a Mauritius Commercial Bank BDO Mauritius MCCI 3.44 Private Sector (foreign) Capital Economics 4.0 Range

© Bank of Mauritius 10 Thank you