1. The Irish economic and consumer outlook Retail Ireland Annual Conference May 23rd Fergal O’Brien Chief Economist

2. International markets’ confidence in Ireland returned and successful exit from EU-IMF bailout increasingly likely

3. 85% of austerity has been delivered…..
Adjustments in public finances to date
% GDP
July 2008-April 2009
€10.5 bn
Budget 2010
€4.3 bn
2.8
Budget 2011
€6.0 bn
3.8
Budget 2012
€3.8 bn
2.4
Budget 2013
€3.5 bn
2.1
Total to date
€28.1 bn
Adjustments planned
Budget 2014
€3.1 bn
1.8
Budget 2015
€2.0 bn
1.1
Total planned
€8.6 bn
TOTAL
€33.2 bn

4. Exports continued to drive GDP growth in 2012, but evidence of some rebalancing also

5. IBEC economic forecasts 2013/’14
% change
2011
2012
2013
2014
Consumer Spending
-2.4
-0.9
0.0
1.0
Investment
-12.6
1.2
7.1
9.6
Exports
5.1
2.9
3.0
4.0
GDP
1.4
0.9
1.8
2.5
GNP
-2.5
3.4
1.9
Inflation (CPI)
2.6
1.7
1.3
Unemployment (%)
14.6
14.7
13.9
13.3

6. Private sector employment returned to growth during 2012

7. Consumer sentiment strengthened during 2012, but subdued in recent months

8. Domestic economy improved in H2 2012 but tough Q1
***Electrical goods in particular received a boost thanks to the summer sporting events and digital switchover.

9. Consumer fundamentals improving – particularly incomes

10. Irish households by type

11. Spending power improving marginally in 2013