Adapting Natural Resource Management to Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest Dave Peterson U.S. Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station

Adaptation strategies for natural resource management?

Now available…. US Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.4 (SAP 4.4) Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources National Forests National Parks National Wildlife Refuges Wild and Scenic Rivers National Estuaries Marine Protected Areas

Vulnerability Tendency of an ecosystem to experience harm from a stressor as a result of being exposed to stress, sensitivity to stress, and inability to cope with and recover from the impact. Changes in species distribution and abundance Changes in ecological processes Changes in functional relationships Pinyon-juniper, New Mexico

Adaptation Adjustment in ecological, social, or economic systems in response to climate change, in order to minimize potential negative effects. Supports sustainability of ecosystem services A long-term, experimental management approach Adaptive management is a component of adaptation

Adaptation Approaches Depend on timing and intention… No active adaptation Planned management responses Anticipation of climate change

Adaptation Approach 1 No active adaptation React to a climate-driven event without foresight or planning, OR Make a conscious decision not to manage for climate change after consideration of the resulting vulnerabilities and impacts.

Adaptation Approach 2 Planned management responses Adjust management during or after a climatic event. Climate-change effects are uncertain, OR insufficient resources are available to prepare for events, OR post- disturbance action is the best choice from a scientific and organizational perspective.

Adaptation Approach 3 Anticipation of climate change Uses information about changing ecosystems and disturbance regimes to identify proactive management strategies. More viable as more scientific information becomes available. Allows for adjustment of management targets.

Emissions scenarios Global Climate Models (GCMs) Downscaling methods Effects models Interactions among multiple stressors Scale of effects assessment vs. management actions Sources of uncertainty

Usually greater confidence in broader scale projections Greater confidence in mid-century projections than late-century Greater confidence in projections of some climate variables than others (i.e., temperature vs. precipitation) Evaluate the evidence and judge the confidence in specific projected impacts for specific areas – look for convergence among effects models Uncertainty ≠ ignorance

Address climate change as a risk Address adaptation as risk management Uncertainty and risk management are common in natural resource management But climate change poses new risk management challenges Non-analog conditions Rapid rate of change Evolving scientific understanding Many interactions

A framework for addressing uncertainty Establish a science-management partnership Identify scenarios for future conditions Evaluate vulnerability and risk Make robust decisions Monitor, evaluate, and review

Establish a science- management partnership Develop a cadre of scientists and managers with multiple areas of expertise Focus on a consensus range of issues and resource disciplines Work together towards final products and outcomes

Identify scenarios for future climate and potential effects Identify a range of climate and effects projections for your area (from multiple models) Focus on the time horizon of the decision, but also consider longer term Consider observed trends and variability

Consider the effects of extreme climate

Extremes matter for fire Standard deviation 1 in 40 yr high range Fire frequency, extent, and severity may be affected by climate change, altering the mean and variability of fire regime properties. A shift in distribution of fire regime properties has a larger relative effect at the extremes than near the mean. A shift of 1 standard deviation changes a 1 in 40 yr event to a 1 in 6 yr event

Evaluate vulnerability and risks Start with existing conditions and stressors (sensitivity) Consider observed variability and trends along with projected trends (exposure) Estimate potential for different resources to respond favorably to an altered climate (adaptive capacity)

Make robust decisions Strive for decisions that can accomplish objectives across a range of climate and effect projections Prioritize “no regrets” actions and projects with high probability of success/impact “Robustness” as a criterion for Identifying options Evaluating tradeoffs among options Final decision

Truly implement adaptive management Environmental Management System framework: plan, act, monitor, adjust Monitor, evaluate, and review

Reducing Climate Change Risk through Adaptation –––– A Strategic Approach

Resistance Resilience Response Realignment The adaptation strategies

Create/Increase Resistance to Change Isolate, protect, and prepare resources for direct & indirect effects of climate Management examples: Thinning; Fire breaks; Fuels mgmt; Age-class adjustments; Type conversions; Fighting insects / disease; Reducing air pollution Increasing over time: Wildfire Invasions by exotic species Insect & disease Site conversions

Create Resilience to ongoing changes and climate-related disturbances Reduce and minimize stress within habitats Mgmt Examples Thin stands Increse buffers Increase TES pop. sizes Stock seed banks Use redundancy Increase heterogeneity

Respond to Climate Influences Follow climate change –Use climate projections to plan vegetation options –Where will species move? Options for Management Anticipate / plan for risks (e.g., longer summers, lower snowpack, regular droughts) Learn from experiments (AM) Promote diverse landscapes

Realign conditions to current dynamics Forest density & structure DWP diversions began For systems out of the range of natural variability – a “restoration” option

Adaptation example #1 Increase landscape diversity Increase resilience at large scales -- Treatments and spatial configurations that minimize loss of large number of structural and functional groups Increase size of mgmt. units -- Much larger treatments and age/structural classes Increase connectivity

Adaptation example #2 Maintain biological diversity Experiment with mixed species, mixed genotypes Modify genetic guidelines Identify species, populations, and communities that are sensitive to increased disturbance

Adaptation example #3 Plan for post-disturbance management Treat fire and other ecological disturbance as normal, periodic occurrences Incorporate fire management and other disturbance options in land management considerations

Adaptation example #4 Implement early detection / rapid response Eliminate or control exotic species Monitor post-disturbance conditions, reduce fire-enhancing species (e.g., cheatgrass)

Adaptation example #5 Manage for realistic outcomes Identify key thresholds for species and functions Determine which thresholds will be exceeded Prioritize projects with high probability of success; abandon hopeless causes Identify species and vegetation structures tolerant of increased disturbance

Adaptation example #6 Incorporate climate change in restoration Reduce emphasis on historical references Reduce use of guidelines based on static relationships (e.g., plant associations) Develop performance standards that consider climate change in restoration trajectories

Where is adaptation being implemented? California: Inyo NF, Tahoe NF, Devils Postpile NM, Sequoia-Kings Canyon NP Colorado: Arapahoe-Roosevelt NF, Routt NF, Rocky Mountain NP Idaho: Idaho Panhandle NF Montana: Kootenai NF New Mexico: Carson NF, Santa Fe NF North Carolina: Uwharrie NF Oregon: Willamette NF Washington: Olympic NF, Okanogan-Wenatchee NF, Mt. Baker- Snoqualmie NF, Olympic NP, North Cascades NP, Mt. Rainier NP Wisconsin: Chequamegon-Nicolet NF Wyoming: Shoshone NF

U.S. Forest Service National Roadmap for Climate Change (2010) Agency capacity Educate employees Designate climate change coordinators Develop program guidance and training Partnerships and education Integrate science and management Develop partnerships and alliances Adaptation Assess vulnerability Set priorities Monitor change Mitigation and sustainable consumption Assess and manage carbon Reduce environmental footprint

Your turn!