1. Linda Joyce Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA FS September 4, 2008 Climate Change and Rangelands Climate Change and Rangelands Information for Adaptation

2. Prairie Heating and CO 2 Enrichment (PHACE) Cheyenne, Wyoming, USA (summer, 2008) 9:00 am — 11:00 pm: Presentations by David Williams and Steve Gray (Univ. of WY), Alan Knapp (CO State Univ.), Jack Morgan (USDAARS)

3. Information from Previous Talks Information on the effects of climate change on western rangelands Developed through experimentation, testing hypotheses, analyzing data, exploring results The scientific process – takes data and develops information.

4. Information for Adaptation Planning for Climate Change –Assessing vulnerability How might this be explored? –Adaptive Capacity What influences this? Adaptation Reflections on Past Experiences –And the process of taking data to develop information to make management decisions

5. Adaptation to Climate Change Takes place through adjustments to reduce vulnerability or to enhance resilience in response to observed or expected changes in climate and associated extreme weather events To minimize the impact or harm and To capitalize on opportunities. IPCC WGII 2007 Confederation Bridge, Canada Constructed 1 metre higher to account for climate change Land acquisition program Increased use of artificial snow by Alpine ski industry

6. Criteria to Identify Vulnerabilities to Climate Change Magnitude of Impact Timing Persistence or Reversibility Likelihood of Impacts Capacity for Adaptation Distribution of Impacts: social, geographic Importance: ecological, social, economic IPCC WGII 2007

7. Data to Identify Vulnerabilities

8. Timing – sudden versus gradual ABRUPT CHANGE Dieback of pinon in pinon-juniper woodlands – insects and drought in the Southwest Left – 2002, Right - 2004 Data to Identify Vulnerabilities Inouye et al 2000 National Geographic GRADUAL CHANGE Average snowmelt date has not shifted. Marmots emerging 3 weeks earlier from hibernation than a few decades ago. Still snow covered fields on their emergence date. Breashers et al 2007

9. IPCC WGII 2007 Persistence and reversibility of impacts Ross Ice Shelf – Iceberg B15 Calving Credit: Jacques Descloitres, Modis Land Science Team Data to Identify Vulnerabilities When does ‘drought’ become ‘climate’?

10. Criteria to Identify Vulnerabilities to Climate Change Magnitude of Impact Timing Persistence or Reversibility Likelihood of Impacts Capacity for Adaptation Distribution of Impacts: social, geographic Importance: ecological, social, economic IPCC WGII 2007

11. Adaptation Reactive Anticipatory

12. ADAPTATION: REACTIVE

13. Capacity is influenced by: –Topography and micro-refugia –Soil traits –Existing biodiversity –Pre-existing stresses, e.g. invasive species, air pollution, fragmentation of the landscape –Status of ecosystem, e.g., early to late succession –And on the characteristics of the social system interacting with, or dependent on, the ecosystem Capacity for Adaptation: Ecosystems

14. ADAPTATION: REACTIVE, ANTICIPATORY

15. Adaptive Capacity in human systems is influenced by local factors: –Available and appropriate skills –Available financial resources –Local support: family, stakeholder, etc. General factors: Socioeconomic and political –Federal laws –Federal policies and regulations –Globalization of markets –Commodity market conditions Capacity for Adaptation: Humans

16. BUILDING THE TOOLBOX  No single solution fits all  Range of options for short & long term  Mix and match tools  Capitalize on experience  Be flexible, experimental (learn-as-you-go), innovative, risk-taking, course-correcting Synthesis and Assessment Report 4.4 ‘Preliminary Review of Adaptation Options for Climate-sensitive Resources and Ecosystems’ http://www.fs.fed.us/ccrc Management

17. ‘Win-Win’ Strategy – Address Current Stressors Altered Disturbances –Drought, fire, insects Habitat Fragmentation and Loss Invasive Plants, Animals, and Pathogens Air and Water Pollution Legacy of Past Management

18. Current Stressors Current Management to address these stressors Experience to draw upon

19. Information for Adaptation Information on the effects of climate on western rangelands: scientific process Operators, Resource Managers, Decision- makers – also have a process of taking data and developing information Information used in decision making for natural resource management

20. Reflection of Experiences as Resource Managers Have you ever experienced a weather- related event where you had to change your management actions and maybe goals? What type of information was needed? What would you do differently?

21. drought Setting – National Forest, City watershed on the National Forest, Focus – Weather suggesting drought In place – Agreement on how forest and water management would be affected by the drought Realization – ‘Drought’ was not defined

22. Reflection of Past Experiences One Point in Time Unusual Event Perhaps no long-term change in resource management actions Valuable Experience

23. Use of Climate or Weather Data to make a Change in your Operation, Natural Resource Management What climate data did you use – precipitation, temperature, Palmer Drought Severity Index? What management actions were adjusted? Did you need additional information? Would you do something different now?

25. Temporal constraints associated with using environmental data or information to make decision in management In making decisions about grazing management or wildlife management, how far ahead of a change in operation or management do you need the data? How does the uncertainty or variability of that information influence your risk management?

27. Have you incorporated information on anticipated changes in rangeland ecosystems associated with future climate change? What types of information on anticipated changes? What was your source? What is your confidence?

29. Describe a time when there were differences of opinion between public land managers and private ranchers concerning the removal of livestock from public lands during a drought? What types of information would have been helpful for reaching a solution that would have been acceptable to all? How will a more uncertain and variable climate challenge the management of public lands?

31. What science needs to be brought to the table? What are the key issues from a management perspective – information needs? What are the key issues from a research perspective – new research challenges? Where do we (research, management) go next?

32. Prairie Heating and CO 2 Enrichment (PHACE) Cheyenne, Wyoming, USA (summer, 2008)