What is IPAT and how does it help frame environmental issues? Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice What is IPAT and how does it help frame environmental issues? What are current projections for human population growth, economic growth, & technology? Why is Yoram a “technological realist” about climate change? Why is Tom otherwise?

IPAT Impact on the environment = Population x Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice IPAT Impact on the environment = Population x Activity per person (or Affluence) x Technology (impact per activity). I = P x A x T How many of us are there? How much stuff are we doing? How environmentally damaging is the stuff we’re doing? Assumes affluence = consumption

IPAT and climate change Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice IPAT and climate change Impact (CO2 and other GHG emissions) = Population x Affluence (GDP* per person) x Technology (Emissions per unit of GDP). I = P x A x T (now you do the units analysis) * Gross Domestic Product measures a country’s economic output (and income).

IPAT and climate change Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice IPAT and climate change Emissions = Population x GDP per person x emissions per unit GDP What’s happening with population? What’s happening with the economy (GDP per person)? What’s happening with technology (emissions per unit GDP)?

IPAT and climate change Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice IPAT and climate change Emissions = Population x GDP per person x emissions per unit GDP What’s happening with population?

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 Billions - 1968: Garrett Hardin freaks out October 20, 2008 This looks a lot like exponential growth!

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice Lutz et al. (2001. Nature 412: 543 - 545).

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice Why? Lutz et al. (2001. Nature 412: 543 - 545).

How many children did your grandparents have (on average)? One Two Three Four Five Six or more

How many children did your parents have? One Two Three Four Five Six or more

How many children do you want to have, or how many did you have? Zero or adopt One Two Three Four Five Six or more

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice What happens next? 2010

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice Afghanistan Malawi Zimbabwe India China Greece Austria USA Norway

Demographic transition Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice Demographic transition World population is still increasing, but it appears to be heading for a peak of around 9 billion. Why??? Coercion? Environmental awareness? The invisible hand? Mostly just blind luck! Is 9 billion a lot or a little? The UN’s range for 2300 is 2 to 36 billion!

From UN, The World at Six Billion Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice From UN, The World at Six Billion Of the 78 million people currently added to the world each year, 95 percent live in the less developed regions. Countries with population over 100 million In 1950: China, India, U.S., Russian federation In 2000, add Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Nigeria In 2050, add Ethiopia, Congo, Mexico, Philippines, Vietnam, Iran, Egypt, Turkey. World population density will increase from 44.6 people/sq km in 2004 to 66 in 2050. Ranges from Bangladesh (1045), India (336), China (138) to USA (31) and Canada (3.2)

IPAT and climate change Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice IPAT and climate change Emissions = Population x GDP per person x emissions per unit GDP What’s happening with population? What’s happening with GDP per person?

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice Per capita GDP Gross Domestic Product is a measure of the size of economic activity in a country. U.S., 2007: $45,800 GDP per capita China, 2007: $5,400 Zimbabwe 2007: $200 In 2005, world GDP rose by ≈4-5%, so per capita GDP growth was ≈3-4%. CIA World Factbook https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html

Compare GDP with other measures Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice Compare GDP with other measures

Affluence ~ Consumption (?) Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice Affluence ~ Consumption (?) A gold wedding ring ~ 3 tons of discharge at a mine in South Africa or the U.S. (47% of gold is recycled). A gold watch ~ 10 to 20 tons. Lunch with two quarter pounders If animal was from Brazil, then 54 ft2 (~5 m2) of rain forest is gone, 59 lb of methane produced, ~200 gallons of water, 3.74 lb of grain Hamburger bun required wheat, water, nitrogen fertilizer. To build your car, it took 605,664 gallons of water for its steel parts and tires. Battery ~ 17.6 lbs of lead produces ~ 682 lbs of pollution at a mine in Australia or the U.S. (73% is recycled), Car has 22 lbs of copper produces ~2178 lbs of discharge somewhere in Chile or the U.S. (60% is recycled). Professor Yannis Phillis

Average US Citizen (per day) Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice Average US Citizen (per day) Consumes 0.44 lbs (or 53 teaspoons) of sweetners per day (mostly in processed food) Produces 33 lbs of C per day (20% of which is due to the personal automobile) Excluded food and fuel, one consumes 222 lbs of material per day Generates 4.4 lbs of garbage (33% is packaging) Ecological footprint is 4x world average; China and India are well below world average. Professor Yannis Phillis

Professor Phillis’ Model of Sustainability Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice Professor Phillis’ Model of Sustainability Overall sustainability (OSUS) = ecological sustainability (ECOS) + human sustainability (HUMS) ECOS = air quality, water quality, land integrity, biodiversity HUMS = Political aspects, education, economic welfare, health Andriantiatsaholiniaina, L.A., V.S. Kouikoglou and Y.A. Phillis. 2004. Evaluating strategies for sustainable development: fuzzy logic reasoning and sensitivity analysis Ecological Economics 48: 149 - 172.

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

Comparison of Cars per Person Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice Comparison of Cars per Person Country Number of Cars per person ≥ 16 years old United States 1.023 France 0.700 Japan 0.608 India 0.011 China 0.009 ABC News 2007

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/china/part2.html. China GDP per capita: $6,800 from https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ch.html India GDP per capita: $3,300 U.S. GDP per capita: $42,000

IPAT and climate change Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice IPAT and climate change Emissions = Population x GDP per person x emissions per unit GDP What’s happening with population? What’s happening with GDP per person? By 2100, population may be 50% higher, and GDP/person may be 50-500% higher. Yoram’s conclusion: If we’re going to reduce GHG emissions, it’s gotta be technology. Justice and power issues will likely result in a combination of changes.

McKibben argues for a change from ______ to durability and resiliency Green GNP Sustainability Demand for expansion Concept of justice Web of connections

McKibben also argues for moving from “X” to “Y” Community to wildness Five channel to cable TV Wildness to community Thinking about the future to thinking about now

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice Good news: Energy use per unit of GDP is falling! (Our economies are becoming less energy- and carbon-intensive.)

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice Bad news: The drop in T (technology) has not been keeping pace with increases in P (population) and A (affluence).

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice Technological realism: If China and the U.S. keep building coal plants like crazy, IPAT suggests that carbon emissions will not fall. It better be T!!!

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice Views on technology Technological optimists: “Technology will save us! Wind/solar/fuel cells/nuclear/etc.” Technological pessimists: “Technology won’t save us—we need changes in values and lifestyles.” Technological realists: “If technology doesn’t save us, we’re not going to be saved.” Combination: Matching global aspirations with emerging situation - McKibben readings

What is IPAT and how does it help frame environmental issues? What are current projections for human population growth, economic growth, and technology? Why is Yoram a “technological realist” about climate change? Why has Tom chosen more than technology as a solution?