Climate Literacy Summation Uncertainty, Lags, Nonlinearities, Feedbacks  Why do these words serve to paralyze sensible policy to mitigate the severity of global climate change? What was the point of this class anyway? What was it supposed to accomplish? The One Question on the Final Version :

Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change Manageable BAD Humanity Blew It

Waveform of Concern An Ecosystem Literally Melts Away

Global Sea Level Rise: Greenland Melting at an unexpectedly higher rate

Total Ice Sheet Melting

Our basic Expectation Long wavelength absorption properties of our atmosphere increase the surface temperature- Water vapor is the dominant effect, followed by CO2

Ice Core data  Provides compelling qualitative evidence of the relation between temperature and CO2  But time resolution is insufficient to truly show if CO2 is a driver or follower of temperature change

Is this the Right Proxy?

Hockey Stick Problems  Role of urbanization may not be adequately account for  Average temperature of the Earth may not be a physically meaningful quantity.  Reliability of multi-century record is questionable  Two D representation is most convincing Data Period:

Amplification of Polar Warming Note the significant slop change at 2005: Methane Feedback signature?

Methane Potential role of methane is larger than CO2 Potential role of methane is larger than CO2 GWP = 21 GWP = 21 Scales with population growth Scales with population growth Released from permafrost Released from permafrost Released from hydrate deposits Released from hydrate deposits Emissions now rising again due to global wetlands returning from prolonged drought Emissions now rising again due to global wetlands returning from prolonged drought

Competition among anthropogenic forces

Uncertain Role of Aerosol  The Physical scattering properties are crucial to determining total dimming

We know Aerosols are Important  Volcanic Eruptions provide a natural lab

Feedbacks are huge uncertainty

Solubility of CO2 is decreasing; Ocean sink now less than before

Ocean PH Rising

Ocean sink capacity no longer scales with increasing emissions

Future Scenarios

Really, Three Choices BAU because we can’t learn or don’t know how to do anything differently  react to disasters as they come BAU because we can’t learn or don’t know how to do anything differently  react to disasters as they come A1T: Alternative energy technology and fuels will come in time A1T: Alternative energy technology and fuels will come in time B2: Value system change: understand that wilderness is everywhere and behave accordingly B2: Value system change: understand that wilderness is everywhere and behave accordingly The Lower Right Box of Doom

Carbon Trading Emission space is fixed  bid or contract on emissions Emission space is fixed  bid or contract on emissions Effective trading requires many sources of generation Effective trading requires many sources of generation What process determines size of emission space? What process determines size of emission space? What is the penalty for exceeding your emissions cap? What is the penalty for exceeding your emissions cap?

Carbon Market Is now not behaving according to original expectations of rapid growth: Is now not behaving according to original expectations of rapid growth: In 2009 it is now much cheaper to put Carbon into the Atmosphere than to capture and store it

Carbon, Capture and Storage Without a real market, what’s the incentive for CCS? Without a real market, what’s the incentive for CCS? CCS technologies are not mature and need to be tested. CCS technologies are not mature and need to be tested. Porosity of sequestration needs to be tested: only sure reserve is deep ocean Porosity of sequestration needs to be tested: only sure reserve is deep ocean CCS the most politically sensible pathway to stabilization CCS the most politically sensible pathway to stabilization

Stabilization and Wedges 1 Wedge = 1 Gigaton of Carbon per year 1 Wedge = 1 Gigaton of Carbon per year This is a global effort This is a global effort Again, real carbon market could help provide various incentives Again, real carbon market could help provide various incentives And remember, global carbon emissions are now increasing annually at a faster rate And remember, global carbon emissions are now increasing annually at a faster rate Current rate is buildup is about 3 ppm x 2.1 = 6.3 Gigatons per year Current rate is buildup is about 3 ppm x 2.1 = 6.3 Gigatons per year

Gaining a Wedge Increase fuel economy for 2 billion cars from 30 to 60 mpg or, decrease annual miles for 2 billion 30 mpg cars from 10,000 to 5000 Efficient buildings: cut carbon emissions in buildings by 25% Increase coal fired electricity efficiency from 40% to 60% using advanced high temperature materials Commit to building large scale renewable energy projects at the TerraWatt level.

Unambiguous climate change detection The intrinsic difficulty is easily forgotten by most policy makers The more we learn about climate science the more we understand the importance of multi-decadal variability in the climate baseline which clearly impacts regional climate.

Regional Climate Change: Raisins

Along with Malaria

And we Policy Wank our way along  " The United States is committed to reducing the greenhouse gas intensity of the American economy by 18 percent over the 10-year period from 2002 to “ Policy oops  Economics:

Resource Depletion Global resource use took a sudden uptick starting around 2000 Global resource use took a sudden uptick starting around 2000 The world is currently in the most unsustainable epoch in history! The world is currently in the most unsustainable epoch in history! China emerges

Global Carbon Intensity is Increasing

Which box do we want to be in?

We Are At Peak Oil!!  85 MBD Total accessible reserve = 900 BBL  Annual use = 365x85= 31 BBL/year  30 years left – end of story

What to Do? Subversive videos on You Tube don’t hurt Drive less; Period. Period. Period. Better transport pods (100 mpg) Change Values: nature is not a consumable; Wilderness is Everywhere; everything is sacred Properly factor in avoidance costs in economic modeling of climate change Make markets have ethical dimensions

What to Do II Stabilize crude oil prices so that alternative energy fiscal baselines can be set and our collective chain can stop being yanked. We might be on this pathway

IPCC Scenarios Once again, three real choices Once again, three real choices Remain Market Driven Remain Market Driven Hope that technological leaps occur Hope that technological leaps occur Adopt the kind of global morality/consciousness that is needed to reduce personal consumption. Adopt the kind of global morality/consciousness that is needed to reduce personal consumption. Electricity use scale as (pop. Growth) 3.5 Electricity use scale as (pop. Growth) 3.5 Increasing global inequity should no longer be tolerated. Aren’t all men created equal? Increasing global inequity should no longer be tolerated. Aren’t all men created equal? Your generation is inheriting the legacy of consumption driven greed Your generation is inheriting the legacy of consumption driven greed Increasing Consumption

The End Result: 25 Million College Students Have inherited this world

You have three choices: Stay Informed, Give up, or Do Something What will be your Choice?