ASPO Strategies for the Future Development of Energy Systems Klaus Illum, Denmark 1. Exponential growth ad absurdum 2. The mind-set of the Cheap-oil Era: ”Energy” as commodity 3. The construction of new energy systems 4. Case study: Denmark

ASPO The nature of exponential growth The same goes for oil depletion Plenty of oil Little time 40 % in 54 years 40 % in 25 years 10 years 10 days 2% p.a. Water hyacinths

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ASPO IEA Reference Scenario. World Energy Outlook 2004 Climbing the peak: investing trillions of dollars in oil- consuming machinery – more cars, trucks, airplanes, etc. investing other trillions producing the increasing amounts of oil needed to feed this machinery. The higher the ascent, the more lamentable the day when the peak is reached and the descent begins.

ASPO The unprecedented economic growth in the affluent countries and the concurrent unprecedented population growth in the third world since World War II is a singular, oil- based event in the history of mankind. There is no substitute for oil with unique properties similar to those of oil. Thus, it is a theoretical assumption not substantiated by any empirical evidence that economic growth of the present sort can continue worldwide.

ASPO Man is a prisoner of his own way of thinking and his own stereotypes of himself. Stafford Beer in Platform for Change, 1975

ASPO The Mind-set of the Cheap-oil Era ”Energy” as a political and economic concept: a class of commodities US Atomic Energy Commission (1946) Provoked by OPEC: The International Energy Agency (1974) The US Department of Energy (1977) The Danish Energy Agency (1976) and concurrently in the other OECD countries

ASPO The Simplistic Energy Bookkeeping Calorimetric energy values: The potential power of one kilogram of oil is equalled to the heat from a solar collector raising the temperature of 1 cubic metre of water by 10 degrees C. and 11 kWh of electric power. This is the key to energy bookkeeping and the concept of energy as a class of commodities.

ASPO It’s true that 1 litre of water + 1 litre of whiskey + 1 litre of milk makes 3 litres. Likewise: It’s true that 1 GJ of oil + 1 GJ of electric power from a nuclear power station + 1 GJ of heat from a solar collector makes 3 GJ. But it is irrelevant for any practical analysis.

ASPO From The Economist April 30th 2005

ASPO It is not about replacing fossil fuels by renewable energy sources or nuclear power. It is about the construction of new energy systems more akin to natural energy systems than the primitive energy supply systems of the cheap- fossil-fuel era.

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ASPO ”Energy” is about sustaining states of thermodynamic disequilibrium: Thermal disequilibrium (temperature differences) Electric disequlibrium (voltage) Kinetic disequilibrium (motion) …. which does not necessarily entail ”energy consumption” or a marketplace for ”energy”.

ASPO The construction of new energy systems is a task for engineers, not economists. In every community there is a need for Lighting, TV, computers, etc. Cooking, cool and cold storage of food A healthy and comfortable indoor climate Transportation of people and goods Agricultural production Industrial production facilities The energy system is a construction which fulfils these needs.

ASPO The three subsystems of an energy system

ASPO In integrated energy systems everything is connected to everything else. There are no distinct sectors which constitute particular ”energy markets”.

ASPO Thermodynamic efficiency of energy supply is about control and regulation in complex systems.

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ASPO Case study: Denmark A detailed physical multi-scenario model (SESAM): Geographical: 4928 ”energy districts” 200,000 building-groups 70 Cities, towns, rural areas. 19 building categories. Electrical appliances Power and cogeneration stations, etc. Industries Transport: Volume by vehicle. Technology. Windmills, solar absorbers, PV panels.

ASPO Example: Assume modest increase in fossil fuel costs: Crude oil price gradually increasing from $30 to $80 in the next 25 years (assuming that the present price is a short- term irregularity) Natural gas price increasing at the same rate

ASPO Assume also unreasonable continued growth in energy consuming facilities: Electrical appliances (+38%) Heated area in buildings (+19%) Industrial production (+30%) Transportation volumes (+50%)

ASPO Strategy AStrategy B

ASPO Strategy A B CO 2 emission - 20% - 64% Coal consumption - 74% - 95% Oil consumption +14% - 50% Gas consumption +37% - 20% Investments (trillion Euro): Wind, PV, Solar Supply installations Buildings, additional 0 19

ASPO Since the problems confronting us are not intrisically insoluble, it behooves us, while there is still time, to begin a serious examination of the nature of our cultural constraints and of the cultural adjustments necessary to permit us to deal effectively with the problems rapidly arising. M.King Hubbert, 1976 Our window of opportunity is slowly closing. M.King Hubbert, 1988