1 POLS 384 Lec. 12 Energy, Environment & Security

POLS 384 Lec. 122 World energy markets 80% fossil fuels Oil: Lifeblood of global economy, #1 export –37% of all energy, 42% of CO2 GDP growth directly correlates to oil use 87 MBD in 2008, 2% growth rate (DoE) 90% of reserves in 14 countries –2/3 reserves in Persian Gulf –Saudi: more than N. & S. America, Europe & former USSR combined

POLS 384 Lec. 123 Patterns of consumption U.S. led petroleum economy (1859) –Enormous reserves –5% population, uses 25% world’s oil “The American way of life” Per capita oil use –5 x world per capita consumption –80 x sub-Saharan Africa Efficiency –Japan & W. Europe use ½ as much/unit of GDP Response to 1973 & 1979 price hikes: high taxes, massive investment in mass transit

POLS 384 Lec. 124 Oil and War Post WWI: Mideast oil rights to “7 sisters” WW2: greatest expenditure of oil Cold War: U.S. "surrogate policy” –FDR & Saudi royal family: Military protection in exchange for oil Militarized Middle East –Persian Gulf: U.S. focus since 1979 –Iran-Iraq War: 1 million dead –Desert Storm (1991): $20 billion –Iraq War: $520 billion (Ntl Priorities Project) Islamic fundamentalism as response to U.S. military presence –Al Qaeda financed by oil revenues

POLS 384 Lec. 125 Oil & Democracy Oil concentrates wealth & power –Middle East, Nigeria, Colombia Direct correlation between oil wealth & authoritarian regimes –Oil wealth often used to bolster military Vastly different environmental standards in N & S –Indigenous peoples & ethnic minorities Civil wars US: War on Terror impact on civil rights

POLS 384 Lec. 126 The Food/Oil Connection Industrialized agriculture –17% of US oil consumption –1 cal. food requires average of 11 cal. energy Wheat/Oil Exchange Rate –From 1:1 (1973) to 14:1 (2006) –U.S. imports: 2% in 1940, 55% in 2005 World food crisis –Oil prices > biofuels race > hunger (+ climate) Food as a portion of income: 16% for poorest 20% of Americans; 60-80% for developing countries –UN Special Task Force Schutter: US & EU biofuels policies are irresponsible

POLS 384 Lec. 127 “Peak Oil” Hubbert’s Peak: production peaks when half the oil is extracted –Accurately predicted U.S. peak (1970) in 1956 –US discoveries peaked 40 years before production peak –Depends upon estimate of reserves Colin Campbell, Shell –Production has outrun discovery for 30 years –1.8 trillion barrels > USGS: 3 trillion barrels > 2030 We don’t know!

POLS 384 Lec. 128 Rising Cost of Oil From $10/barrel (1998) to $125 today –Prior to 2003, highest price was 1979 $100 (2003 $) Confluence of factors Increased demand –3.4% in 2004, double the usual China consumption growing by 10%/year Decreased supply from Iraq Are we reaching “peak oil”?

POLS 384 Lec. 129 U.S. Policy Options Conservation Transition to alternative fuels Find more oil –Drill domestically –Pursue technological fixes Get existing oil –“Securitizing” oil

POLS 384 Lec Bringing it home How to cut your oil consumption –Drive less, fly less, or not at all –Live close to your work –Heat your home with natural gas or renewables –Buy less –Eat locally grown, organic food Grow your own!