Participation in MAP D-PHASE / COPS Description of MAP D-PHASE project Implementation strategy Key relevant features of GEM v3.3.0 Overview of verification.

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Presentation transcript:

Participation in MAP D-PHASE / COPS Description of MAP D-PHASE project Implementation strategy Key relevant features of GEM v3.3.0 Overview of verification opportunities Generation of experimental products Prototyping / proof-of-concept for Vancouver 2010 Olympics project

MAP D-PHASE Project WMO-designated forecast demonstration project for the Swiss/German Alps region Main emphasis is on QPF and flood forecasting DOP: 1 June – 30 November Canadian contribution: 1x daily high resolution (2.5km) 24h forecasts for the D-PHASE region

MAP D-PHASE Project Both deterministic and low/high resolution ensembles will be run by various centers:  Ensembles: MOGREPS (UKMet), INM Multi- model (Spain), COSMO-LEPS (ECMWF), MICRO-PEPS (DWD)  Deteministic: GEM (Canada), MOLOCH (Italy), AROME (France), MM5 (Universities) Numerous hydrological models will be run either coupled or in offline mode

MAP D-PHASE Project The MAP D-PHASE integrations will also be used by other related projects:  MICRO-PEPS: A German proposal to combine high resolution (> 3km) results into an ensemble for the DOP  COPS: GEM will be one of the 5 high resolution models used for COPS mission planning – plots are delivered daily to the COPS operations centre These collaborations will enhance verification efforts

MAP D-PHASE Project Verification (COPS data and model intercomparison) Prototype / Proof-of-Concept (Preparation for Vancouver 2010 Olympics) Experimental Products (New strategies for high resolution NWP)

Implementation Plan

Key Features of GEM “Hollow cube” initialization parallelizes nesting and improves delivery time by >1h for GEM- LAM2.5 grids – this feature is mandatory for timely delivery during MAP D-PHASE Nested M-Y microphysics implements a state-of- the-art multicategory bulk parameterization “Growing orography” reduces gravity wave generation during the initialization shock

M-Y Microphysics K-Y overpredicts in the lee of the Cascade Mts. M-Y produces improved precip distribution

Growing Orography Standard NestingGrowing Orography Reduced shock during high resolution mountain runs eliminates much vertical motion noise cross-section along idealized ridge line

D-PHASE Test Period SLP (magenta), thickness (orange) and 250 hPa wind speed (colour bar) GFS analysis (18 h before initialization) L

D-PHASE Test Period SLP (magenta), thickness (orange) and 250 hPa wind speed (colour bar) GFS analysis (initialization time) L

D-PHASE Test Period 700 hPa Nondivergent wind (yellow) and streamfunction (orange) GFS analysis (18h before initialization)

D-PHASE Test Period 700 hPa Nondivergent wind (yellow) and streamfunction (orange) GFS analysis (initialization time)

D-PHASE Test Period 700 hPa potential temperature (coloured lines) and winds, and coupling index GFS analysis (initialization time)

D-PHASE Test Period Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

D-PHASE Test Period Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

D-PHASE Test Period Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

D-PHASE Test Period Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

D-PHASE Test Period Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

D-PHASE Test Period Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

D-PHASE Test Period Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

D-PHASE Test Period Radar Reflectivity – 15 May

D-PHASE Test Period Eumetsat IR image for 1100 UTC 15 May

D-PHASE Test Period 6h precipitation accumulation – 15 May

Common critisism of GEM-LAM2.5 products is a lack of objective verification measures D-PHASE / COPS provide a unique set of verification opportunities:  COPS observations (10 aircraft, microphysical instrumentation)  European / German / Swiss observing network (over 800 evenly- distributed gauges)  Model intercomparison (12 high resolution models are being run at least once daily) WG-VER is designing a subjective forecaster verification toolkit for use during D-PHASE D-PHASE Verification

Fuzzy high resolution QPF verification: QPF Feature identification and displacement calculation Threshold-based structure / amplitude /location (SAL) score Objective comparison with enhanced resolution (4 km) surface analyses D-PHASE Verification  traditional scores are compared in a neighbour- hood instead of at a point Sample Fuzzy-verified ETS from the Swiss Alpine Model (aLMo)

Leverages recent developments designed to improve performance in mountains Investigates the utility of new guidance products (e.g. high resolution ensemble) Provides a unique verification opportunity:  enhanced observations during DOP  intercomparison / new verification techniques D-PHASE Summary The MAP D-PHASE project will serve as an Olympics testbed for high resolution NWP: