Time horizon of knowledge developing new product concepts (Tutti/Masina tutkimusprojekti, Leppimäki et al., 2004) Tutkimuksemme mukaan tuotekonseptointi on jaettavissa kolmeen kategoriaan: visioiva (visioning), kehittävä (emerging) ja määrittelevä (defining) tuotekonseptointi. Neljäs kategoria on ratkaiseva (solving) konseptointi, jota siis tehdään tuotekehitysprojektin sisällä. Visioivaksi tuotekonseptoinniksi voidaan lukea konseptihankkeet, joilla kartoitetaan pitkän aikavälin eli tulevaisuuden tuotemahdollisuuksia Kehittävässä tuotekonseptoinnissa voidaan esimerkiksi tutkia lupaavia teknologioita ja uusia, potentiaalisia markkinoita, sekä tunnustella nousevien käyttäjätarpeiden luomia mahdollisuuksia Jukka Bergman TBRC April 4, 2006

Dynamic Business Environment As Mintzberg (1978) has stated that innovations and strategies can develop with or without organizational intent. Strategic intent Emerging strategy Planned strategy Realized strategy - Emerging strategy Jukka Bergman TBRC April 4, 2006

Position of the Company The Competence Gap Vision What business are we in? Strategy Competence Gap Position of the Company (Rönkkö, 2005) Jukka Bergman TBRC April 4, 2006

Introduction of Scenarios Future research methods can be divided into quantitative / qualitative and exploratory / normative techniques. Scenario method is seen as a qualitative and exploratory technique, but the scenarios can be either explorative or normative. Scenario method is traditionally considered as a strategy formation tool Scenarios are logical and plausible descriptions about the future development Jukka Bergman TBRC April 4, 2006

Scenario approach The fundamental idea: To provide a structured way to create a dynamic interaction between the environment and the organization Scenarios enables: Management of collaborative networking process Analysis the past and present environment Strategic conversation To challenge the present assumptions and mental maps Determination of the determinants of the future “driving forces” Recognition and evaluation of future opportunities Creation of new knowledge Jukka Bergman TBRC April 4, 2006

Purpose of scenarios To understand the environment  to reveal important question/issues needed to research To understand the ongoing changing environment  To create quality to strategic conversation To create superior strategy  No learning and difficult to sustain success Adaptive learning  Continuous enhancing of competitive performance  motivates to engage in new actions Van der Heijden 2004 Jukka Bergman TBRC April 4, 2006

Scenario process (mega)trends Scenario process Strategy formation Phase 1. Phase 2. Phase 4. Phase 3. Environmental analysis Weak signals (mega)trends Business environment (PESTE analysis) Stakeholders Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Vision Scenario process Strategy formation Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Jukka Bergman TBRC April 4, 2006

Future anticipation process (Leppimäki et al. 2003) Klikkaa kuvaa  Tutu-taul. Jukka Bergman TBRC April 4, 2006

2. heuristic (van der Heijden, Schoemaker, Meristö) SCENARIO PROCESS Scenario approaches can be classified into 1. intuitive (Schwartz, Wack, SRI) 2. heuristic (van der Heijden, Schoemaker, Meristö) 3. statistic models (Godet). Definition of the focus of business environment (socialization) Analysis of gathered knowledge and knowledge creation (externalization) Implementation of scenarios and learning (internalization) Creation of scenarios (combination of knowledge) Jukka Bergman TBRC April 4, 2006

Scenario approaches Schwartz van der Heijden Schoemaker Masini Godet 1. Exploration of a strategic issue 1. Structuring of the scenario process 1. Framing the scope 1. Description of the process 1. Delimitation of the context 2. Identification of actors & stakeholders 2. Delimitation of the context 2. Identification of the key variables 2. Identification of external key forces 2. Exploring the context of the issue 3. Exploring the predetermined elements 3. Identification of the variables 3. Analysis of past trends and actors 3. Exploring the past trends 4. Identification of Uncertainties 4. Identification of the key variables 4. Analysis of the interaction of actors and the environment 4. Evaluation of the environmental forces 5. Construction of initial scenarios 5. Identification of the uncertainties 5. Creation of the logic of initial scenarios 3. Developing the scenarios 6. Assessment the initial scenarios 6. Identification of actors 5. Creation of the environmental scenarios 6. Creation of final scenarios 4. Stakeholder analysis 7. Creation of the final learning scenarios 7. Formulation of hypothetical questions 6. Building the final scenarios 5. System check, evaluation 8. Evaluation of the stakeholders 8. Building the scenarios 7. Implications for the decision making 8. Follow-up research 6. Action planning 9. Action planning 10. Reassessment of the scenarios and decision making 9. Implementation and action planning 7. Identification of strategic options 8. Action planning Schwartz  Intuitive approach; Others  Heuristic approach; Godet  Statistic approach Jukka Bergman TBRC April 4, 2006

References Godet, M. (2000): The art of scenarios and strategic planning: Tools and Pitfalls, Technological forecasting and social change, 65, 3-22. Godet, M. & Roubelat, F. (1996): Creating the future: The use and misuse of scenarios, Long Rang Planning, 29, 2, 164-171. Jääskö & Keinonen (Eds.) (2004): Tuotekonseptointi, Teknologiainfo, Teknova Oy. Isbn: 951-817-832-1 Makridakis, S., Wheelwright, S.C., McGee, V.E. (1983). Forecasting: Methods and applications. New York, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1991): When and how to use scenario planning: A heuristic approach with illustration, Journal of forecasting, 10, 549-564. Schwartz, P. (1996): The Art of the Long View - Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World Doubleday Dell publishing Inc., New York, USA. van der Heijden, K., Bradfield, R. , George, B., Cairns, G. & Wright, G. (2002): The Sixth Sense - Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chinchester, UK. Wack, P. (1985a): Scenarios uncharted waters ahead, Harvard Business Review, Sept-Oct, 73-89. Wack, P. (1985b): Scenarios: shooting the rapids, Harvard Business Review, Nov-Dec, 139-150. Jukka Bergman TBRC April 4, 2006