1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP May 18, 2015 For more information, visit:

2 Outline Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions Monsoon Prediction Summary Climatology

3 Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, the precipitation pattern over eastern Afghanistan, northern Pakistan, and northern (particularly Kashmir) and over entire India was at near to slightly above normal levels for this time of the year. Rainfall was also much above normal over southwestern Borneo island. However, rainfall was below to much below normal elsewhere over southern Philippines, southeastern China across Malaysia, Indonesia and across entire northern and north central Australia.

4 Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, the precipitation over southern India, northeast India, Nepal, and Bangladesh and vicinity was normal to above normal for this time of the year. However, rainfall was much below normal over southeastern China, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, parts of Indonesia and papa New Guinea. Overall, precipitation over Australia was near normal for the last thirty days.

5 Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, the precipitation was above normal over Tamilnadu and Kerala states of India. Over northeast India and Bangladesh and eastern China. Elsewhere, the rainfall was at or below normal levels.

6 Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.

7 Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

8 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

9 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

10 Summary For the past 90 days, the precipitation pattern over eastern Afghanistan, northern Pakistan, and northern (particularly Kashmir) and over entire India was at near to slightly above normal levels for this time of the year. Rainfall was also much above normal over southwestern Borneo island. However, rainfall was below to much below normal elsewhere over southern Philippines, southeastern China across Malaysia, Indonesia and across entire northern and north central Australia. For the past 30 days, the precipitation over southern India, northeast India, Nepal, and Bangladesh and vicinity was normal to above normal for this time of the year. However, rainfall was much below normal over southeastern China, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, parts of Indonesia and papa New Guinea. Overall, precipitation over Australia was near normal for the last thirty days. In this past week, the precipitation was above normal over Tamilnadu and Kerala states of India, northeast India, Bangladesh and eastern China. Elsewhere, the rainfall was at or below normal levels. In the next couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting above normal precipitation over much of Burma, and adjoining regions of China and coastal southeastern China. Elsewhere, below normal rainfall is forecast by the models. Interestingly, through the month of May, the model is predicting below normal along southern India, the traditional onset region of the summer SW monsoon.

11 Demise of the Asian Monsoon

12 Onset of the Australian Monsoon

13 Climatology