Food Security and the Future for Agriculture in a Water, Carbon and Energy Constrained World Victorian Agribusiness Summit, August 5-6, 2009 Prof. Timothy G. Reeves FTSE

FOOD SECURITY 850 million

Food security – Driving Forces Short-term, e.g., GFC; Weather Longer-term – Demand Longer-term - Supply

Climate change Warmer, drier More variability More extreme events Historical records?

Australian temperatures

Atmospheric CO 2 and Deuterium Temperature Anomalies over the Past 420,000 Years (Vostok Ice Core Data) Deuterium-based Temperature Anomalies, °C Deglaciations Glaciations Atmospheric pCO 2,  atm. IGBP Year ppm

Food crisis – declining stocks CIMMYT ® Source: J. Dixon 2008

The Crisis: World Commodity Prices (Jan Apr. 2008)

Source: Worldwatch Institute 2006 and 2008 Ethanol: > 90% of biofuel production; Brazil and US are 90% ethanol market Biodiesel: EU accounts for 90% of production World ethanol and bio-diesel production, (billion liters)

FOSSIL FUEL - THE REAL SUSTAINABILITY CHALLENGE? Demand exceed production by 2010 U.S. 400 gallons oil/equiv/year to feed 1 person –31% fertilizer production –19% machinery use (field) –16% transport –13% irrigation (1Kg N  1.4 to 1.8 litres of diesel)

SUSTAINABILITY Less input-intensive Input-use efficiency Stress tolerance

Market Demographics Opportunities and challenges BRIC Economies Traditional Markets Livestock Biofuels Carbon

Energy/carbon farming Carbon sequestration –Soils –Vegetation Emissions/mitigation –Animals –Fertilizer –Fuel

Carbon Farming Carbon sequestration 9.1 m ha – potentially forestry $ 1.9 b C (25% national emissions) Source: B. Keating 2008

MaizeWheatRice Group'67-'96'97-'06 '67-'96'97-'06 '67-'96'97-'06 (percentage annual growth) Developed Developing World Average Yield Growth Rate, and Source: FAOSTAT 2007

Australian Competitiveness – meeting the needs Investment New technologies Efficiency and organization

AGRICULTURE IN BRAZIL RankingProjected Coffee11 Sugar cane11 Orange juice11 Beef21-2 Soybeans21 Maize21 Poultry21-2

Technology 1.8 to 3.5% productivity increase Supply chain Landscapes Communities

Unique Australian model CRCs Rural R&D Corporations Farmer leadership

Australian Farms 2020 Fewer, larger farms Diversification – on farm/off farm –Energy –Carbon Export emphasis, productivity, technologies Participation in supply chains Emphasis on sustainability, quality assurance, production certification, identity preservation, environmental amenity, supply chain management, food safety Contract services Land ownership and land management Labour-labour saving Source: Ross Kingwell 2008

The Future Sustainable intensification Precision agriculture Conservation agriculture Land and water Global connectivity NOT ‘business as usual’