Petroleum Man Presentation Based on Chapter of the Same Name in ‘Crossing the Rubicon’ by Mike Ruppert

Increasing Demand Global demand oil and gas increasing Global demand oil and gas increasing New supplies not being found at the same rate New supplies not being found at the same rate Use 4-6 barrels for every new barrel found Use 4-6 barrels for every new barrel found Trend getting worse Trend getting worse Natural gas use is increasing, rate of discoveries, especially in North America is falling Natural gas use is increasing, rate of discoveries, especially in North America is falling Population increasing. Population increasing.

Colin Campbell World Expert – worked at BP, Amoco, FINA, Texaco World Expert – worked at BP, Amoco, FINA, Texaco 1 trillion barrels left 1 trillion barrels left 82 million used per day 82 million used per day 35-years at present rate 35-years at present rate Rate is increasing, estimates 20 years Rate is increasing, estimates 20 years Harder / More expensive to get Harder / More expensive to get

Colin Campbell Key principle Key principle “When it takes more energy to pump a barrel of oil than is obtained by burning it, the field is considered dead, regardless of how much oil remains” “When it takes more energy to pump a barrel of oil than is obtained by burning it, the field is considered dead, regardless of how much oil remains”

The Bottom Line Without the sugar-coating Rupert says: Without the sugar-coating Rupert says: “In order to prevent the extinction of the human race, the world’s population must be reduced by as many as four billion people.” “In order to prevent the extinction of the human race, the world’s population must be reduced by as many as four billion people.”

Hydrocarbons World has used ½ of all hydrocarbons created over millions of years in just 100 years. World has used ½ of all hydrocarbons created over millions of years in just 100 years. 95% of all transport – powered by Oil 95% of all transport – powered by Oil 50% of all produced is used for transportation 50% of all produced is used for transportation

Hydrocarbons “Oil pervades our civilization; it is all around you. The shell for your computer is made from it. Your food comes wrapped in it. You brush your hair and teeth with it. There’s probably some in your shampoo, and most certainly its container. Your children’s toys are made from it. You take your trash out in it. It makes your clothes soft in the dryer. As you change the channels with the TV remote you hold it in your hands. Some of your furniture is probably made with it. It is everywhere inside your car. It is used in both the asphalt you drive on and the tires that meet the road. It probably covers the windows in your home. When you have surgery, the anesthesiologist slides it down your esophagus. Your prescription medicine is contained in it. Your bartender sprays the mixer for your drink through it. Oh yes, and the healthy water you carry around with you comes packaged in it…

Hydrocarbons Be careful. If you decide that you want to throw this book out, your trashcan is probably made from it. And if you want to call and tell me what a scaremonger I am, you will be holding it in your hands as you dial. And if you wear corrective lenses, you will probably be looking through it as you write down a number with a pen that is made from it. Plastic is a petroleum product, and its price is every bit as sensitive to supply shortages as gasoline. Oil companies do not charge a significantly different price for oil they sell to a plastics company than they charge a gas station owner. If the wellhead price goes up, then every downstream use is affected.” – Page 23/24 – Crossing the Rubicon

Oil and the Food Supply Modern food: 10 calories consumed for each 1 calorie contained Modern food: 10 calories consumed for each 1 calorie contained Farm machinery all uses oil. Farm machinery all uses oil. Fertilizers – Ammonia – Natural Gas Fertilizers – Ammonia – Natural Gas Pesticides – Oil Pesticides – Oil Water for crops – pumped by Oil Water for crops – pumped by Oil Harvest -> Processing Plant -> Refrigeration -> Grocery Store -> Home Harvest -> Processing Plant -> Refrigeration -> Grocery Store -> Home

Food – Consider this… 4 out of 6 billion people on this planet do not have, and want, these things. 4 out of 6 billion people on this planet do not have, and want, these things. Economies are encouraged to grow Economies are encouraged to grow “One way or another, the have-nots must become consumers” “One way or another, the have-nots must become consumers”

Food – The Scariest Part “If fertilizers, partial irrigation and pesticides were withdrawn corn yields, for example, would drop from 130 bushels per acre to about 30” “If fertilizers, partial irrigation and pesticides were withdrawn corn yields, for example, would drop from 130 bushels per acre to about 30” Same applies to wheat, lettuce, celery, onion: anything that commercial agriculture produces. Same applies to wheat, lettuce, celery, onion: anything that commercial agriculture produces. Organic Farming? Infrastructure not in place. Organic Farming? Infrastructure not in place. “You could ask several billion people to stop eating for a year or two while we switch..” “You could ask several billion people to stop eating for a year or two while we switch..”

Food – Cattle Grain production will affect meat prices as they feed on it. Grain production will affect meat prices as they feed on it. Would you pay $50 for a burger or $25 for a chicken breast? Would you pay $50 for a burger or $25 for a chicken breast? The US contains 5% of the world’s population yet consumes 25% of the world’s energy. The US contains 5% of the world’s population yet consumes 25% of the world’s energy.

Growth The whole world economy is shifting towards more consumption – not less The whole world economy is shifting towards more consumption – not less Developing world – massive increase in consumer spending – rising literacy etc Developing world – massive increase in consumer spending – rising literacy etc 2002 Chinese Auto Sales jumped 50% 2002 Chinese Auto Sales jumped 50% GM sales in China up 300% in 2002 alone GM sales in China up 300% in 2002 alone

Petroleum Man Hydrocarbons have led to huge increases in human population Hydrocarbons have led to huge increases in human population Unsustainable peak due to the “Age of Oil” Unsustainable peak due to the “Age of Oil”

Rational Assessments OK – can’t all be bad right? Our governments have planned for this right? OK – can’t all be bad right? Our governments have planned for this right? Moving to ‘alternative’ energy will lead to tens of millions of people being laid off. Moving to ‘alternative’ energy will lead to tens of millions of people being laid off. Process might take decades. Who would fund it? Process might take decades. Who would fund it? Hydrogen fuel cells are not the answer Hydrogen fuel cells are not the answer Electricity has to be ‘generated’. Electricity has to be ‘generated’. Move back to coal? Environmental impact Move back to coal? Environmental impact

Rational Assessments Production of electricity is a huge usage of energy Production of electricity is a huge usage of energy In % of world’s energy was used to produce electricity In % of world’s energy was used to produce electricity In % of all electricity in the US was from coal-burning power plants In % of all electricity in the US was from coal-burning power plants Hoped natural gas would be the answer. Gas is running out faster than oil! Hoped natural gas would be the answer. Gas is running out faster than oil!

Rational Assessments US oil production peaked in the 1970s. US oil production peaked in the 1970s. Then became dependent on foreign oil. Then became dependent on foreign oil. “Whatever anyone tries to say to the contrary, our dependence on foreign oil is permanent and increasing all the time” “Whatever anyone tries to say to the contrary, our dependence on foreign oil is permanent and increasing all the time” Oil is getting more expensive to produce everywhere in the world. Oil is getting more expensive to produce everywhere in the world. Global oil discoveries peaked in the 1960s Global oil discoveries peaked in the 1960s

Rational Assessments Middle East nations will peak last. Soon the middle east will supply 40% of the world’s oil Middle East nations will peak last. Soon the middle east will supply 40% of the world’s oil Saudi Arabia has 25% of the world’s recoverable oil, Iraq 11%. Saudi Arabia has 25% of the world’s recoverable oil, Iraq 11%. US population and reliance of Oil project as follows over the next 20 years: US population and reliance of Oil project as follows over the next 20 years: Oil Consumption up 33% Oil Consumption up 33% Natural Gas up 50% Natural Gas up 50% Electricity Demand up 45% Electricity Demand up 45% Overall consumption up 32% Overall consumption up 32% Yet the US produces 39% less oil then in 1970 Yet the US produces 39% less oil then in 1970

World Oil Reserve Figures “The books on world oil reserves are as cooked as the books of Enron.” “The books on world oil reserves are as cooked as the books of Enron.” In the producers interest to insist the supply is there and to inflate their reserves In the producers interest to insist the supply is there and to inflate their reserves Controlling the price of oil Controlling the price of oil Overstating reserves help maintain share prices Overstating reserves help maintain share prices Shell have been caught recently on this overstating reserves by 20% Shell have been caught recently on this overstating reserves by 20%

The Oil Companies Know Already lots of mergers and downsizing in the Oil world. Already lots of mergers and downsizing in the Oil world. According to BP-Amoco world oil production per capita peaked in According to BP-Amoco world oil production per capita peaked in Following this peak production is sinking downwards and this trend is not reversing. Following this peak production is sinking downwards and this trend is not reversing.

What is needed? Pimentel and Pimentel in 1996 stated: Pimentel and Pimentel in 1996 stated: “the nations of the world must develop a plan to reduce the global population from near 6 billion to about 2 billion. If humans do not control their numbers, nature will.” “the nations of the world must develop a plan to reduce the global population from near 6 billion to about 2 billion. If humans do not control their numbers, nature will.” What is the biggest issue? Its not ‘profitable’ to slow decline. What is the biggest issue? Its not ‘profitable’ to slow decline.

Conclusion? The author goes to suggest such strains on the US economy and its thirst for oil meant Iraq and Afghanistan had to be secured The author goes to suggest such strains on the US economy and its thirst for oil meant Iraq and Afghanistan had to be secured He argues the attacks of 9/11 were planned by factions of the US government or at least “allowed to happen” to provide a pretext for war in Iraq He argues the attacks of 9/11 were planned by factions of the US government or at least “allowed to happen” to provide a pretext for war in Iraq A shock treatment was needed to get the public support for the war. A shock treatment was needed to get the public support for the war. Ignoring all that the issues of energy production peaking and the time for ‘Petroleum Man’ coming to an end are serious for each one of us. Ignoring all that the issues of energy production peaking and the time for ‘Petroleum Man’ coming to an end are serious for each one of us.