1. Peak Oil & Finite Resources Charlie Stephens Oregon Department of Energy

2. The Real Message is Hidden

3. Energy in History

4. Energy Slaves

5. U.S. Energy Use

6. U.S. Energy Use, by Sector

7. Fuel Energy Density

8. US Oil Mix

9. Oil Demand and Discoveries

10. Drilling More Doesn’t Help

11. Decline of U.S. Production

12. 100 Giant Fields = 65% of Total Resource Base

13. Post-Peak Countries

14. Inflated OPEC Reserves?

15. Oil Companies View “Gas production has peaked in North America.” Exxon “The era of easy oil is over.” Chevron

16. The Growing Gap

17. Small Difference in Peak

18. Effect of Growth in Oil Use on Date of Peak

19. Peak Scenario

20. Natural Gas Production Rates

21. NW Forecast Gas Use

22. Natural Gas Prices

23. Real Price of Oil

24. Components of Pump Prices U.S. Energy Information Administration

25. Why is Gas so Expensive?

26. Gas Prices - Yesterday, Today, … Tomorrow? ???? 1955 2005

27. Consequences of Peak Oil

28. The Era of Finite Resources

29. Relationship of Growth in Energy and Population

30. Impact of Oil on Society

31. Oil Demand and GDP

32. Oil Prices and GDP

33. Energy Use and Real GDP

34. Where is the Oil?

35. Who Has Oil? Who Uses It?

36. Comparative Gasoline Use

37. Gallons Per Capita

38. Comparative Energy Use

39. War for Oil

40. In the early days, “Agriculture was not so much about food as it was about the accumulation of wealth. It benefited some humans, and those people have been in charge ever since.” Fossil Fuel and Agriculture Richard Manning; “The Oil We Eat”, Harpers, 2005.

41. Farming “is an annual artificial catastrophe, and it requires the equivalent of three or four tons of TNT per acre for a modern American farm. Iowa's fields require the energy of 4,000 Nagasaki bombs every year.” 1 Fossil Fuel and Agriculture 1 Richard Manning; “The Oil We Eat”, Harpers, 2005. Mr. Manning was referring to the growing of the world’s ajor grain crops - corn, rice and wheat.

42. Fossil Fuel and Agriculture The common assumption these days is that we muster our weapons to secure oil, not food. There's a little joke in this. Ever since we ran out of arable land, food is oil. Every single calorie we eat is backed by at least a calorie of oil, more like ten. In 1940 the average farm in the United States produced 2.3 calories of food energy for every calorie of fossil energy it used. By 1974 (the last year in which anyone looked closely at this issue), that ratio was 1:1. 1 1 Richard Manning; “The Oil We Eat”, Harpers, 2005.

43. Fossil Fuel and Agriculture On average, the food industry uses 10 calories of fossil fuel energy to produce 1 calorie of food. For pork, it’s 68 calories for 1 calorie on your plate. For beef, it’s 35 calories for 1 calorie on your plate. 1 1 Richard Manning; “The Oil We Eat”, Harpers, 2005.

44. Fossil Fuel and Agriculture 1999 to 2003: 227 million of 320 million acres of principal crops planted in corn, wheat, soybeans and cotton. About 70% of grain crop fed to animals. 1 In 2005: 45% of operations cost for corn and wheat crops was fossil fuel 2 32% of operations cost for soybeans and cotton was fossil fuels ($120/acre for cotton) 2 1 USDA Economic Research Service 2 Global Insight; www.globalinsight.com/perspective/perspectivedetail2319.htm

45. Fossil Fuel and Agriculture By 2006: 56% of operations cost for corn and wheat crops will be energy-related expenses 1 40% of operations cost for soybeans and cotton will be energy-related expenses 1 1 Global Insight; www.globalinsight.com/perspective/perspectivedetail2319.htm

46. Fossil Fuel and Agriculture Ammonia fertilizers September 26th anhydrous ammonia price was $380/ton 1 At $12/MMBtu for natural gas, natural gas cost component for anhydrous ammonia is $400/ton 2 On average, it takes 5.5 gallons of fossil energy [or natural gas equivalent - ¾ million Btu] to restore a year's worth of lost fertility to an acre of eroded land. 3 1 Fertilizer Week America 2 Natural gas cost has been about 40% of total cost of production for anhydrous ammonia, but is rising dramatically. 3 Richard Manning; “The Oil We Eat”, Harpers, 2005.

47. Fertilizer & Food

48. Oil into Food 400 gallons of oil equivalents are expended annually to feed each American. · 31% for the manufacture of inorganic fertilizer · 19% for the operation of field machinery · 16% for transportation · 13% for irrigation · 08% for raising livestock (not including feed)‏ · 05% for crop drying · 05% for pesticide production · 08% miscellaneous Energy costs for packaging, refrigeration, transportation to retail outlets, and household cooking are not considered in these figures.

49. Food Travels ~1500 Miles

50. Transportation Energy Use

51. Driving Has Doubled

52. Post-Oil Transportation

53. Atmospheric CO2 - Mauna Loa

54. World Temperature History

55. South Cascade Glacier, WA 1928 and 2000

56. Arctic Ice Cap, 1979 vs 2003

57. Ocean Conveyor Belt

58. Which Future?

59. Summary

60. Thank You