11 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Gordon Bell Senior Researcher Microsoft Corporation November 1999 The Colonization of Cyberspace

22 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. In Silicon Valley, the Internet is all we think about. Is it just greed??? The internet has created (redistributing) more wealth than any other phenomena. $200 B valuation; $2 B sales; -$0.2M return. WWW may be grossly over-hyped! Long run, the hype is likely to be justified. USA is <5% of the world population. Silicon Valley is <0.01% of this population. More people learning English in China than speak it in the rest of the world

33 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Why organizations e.g. governments and companies don’t yet understand it No direct experience (children tell them) computing has advanced rapidly because we like to building systems for our use Inward looking when at home… inertia and there are always other problems and interruptions to deal with We mix among like professionals The change is exponential: You don’t see it coming. The past may not matter! It is hard to understand until it is you.

44 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Agenda Everything cyberizable will be put into cyberspace! Goal, quest, or fate? The demand side Platform, network, and cyberization technologies evolution Internet (PC)-TV gateway: TV and audio Internet-POTS gateway: handhelds & phones The race toward E-Services startups! Some apps: u Administrivia and financial industries u Telepresentations u Telecollaboration

55 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Region/Intranet Campus, including SANs Home On Body World Continent Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace! Goal? Quest? or Fate? Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms Car In Body

66 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information Coupling to all information and information processors e.g. people Pure bits e.g. paper, newspapers, video Bit tokens e.g. money, stock State of: places, things, and people State of: physical networks

77 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Internet boom hurts overnite delivery

88 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.

99 Book page

10 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Cyberspace: A spiraling quest in 3D real space Computation Communication Cyberization Programs, Content & MessagesServices based on content!

11 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Data Cyberspace: one, two or three networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020 Telephony Television Will we have gateways?

12 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Demand: All the graphs go up and to the right... after 25 years!

13 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Percent of homes with WWW Coverage

14 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Purchasing on the net

15 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Internetters growth ‘95‘96‘97‘98‘99‘00‘01‘02‘03‘04 Internet Growth extrapolated at 98% per year World Population extrapolated at 1.6% per year

16 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Growth in hype vs reality Infoway speculation “how great it’ll be” (politicians Infoway regulation conferences WWW Infoway addiction lawsuits Data from Gordon’s WAG books, newspapers

17 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Several near term bets I’ve made u 2001: NOT One billion internet users (N. Negroponte) u 2001: 1/2 of commercial PCs will have cameras (Gray) u 2001: NOT 10K WSs 1 Gbps (Reddy) u 2004: NOT More LEPs than LCDs or E-ink… (Hauser, Prod. Mgr. E-ink)

18 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Why the bet of 1 billion users on the net is a keystone bet! It determines the market u for networks u for access devices… especially PCs It says something about the utility u commerce u communication u entertainment Increased network capacity & ubiquity enables u phones u videophones u television u serendipity

19 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. What technology will we build with? How will it evolve?

20 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. The two great inventions The computer (1946… realised in 1948). Computers supplement and substitute for all other info processors, including humans u Memories come in a hierarchy of sizes, speeds, and prices… the challenge is to exploit them u Computers are built from other computers in a iterative, layered, and recursive fashion The Transistor (1946) and subsequent Integrated Circuit (1957). u Processors, memories, switching, and transduction are the primitives in well-defined hardware-software levels u A little help from magnetic, photonic, and other transducer technologies

21 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved Performance in Mflop/s Micros Supers R2000 i860 RS6000/540 Alpha RS6000/590 Alpha Cray 1S Cray X-MP Cray 2 Cray Y-MP Cray C90 Cray T Growth of microprocessor performance

22 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Bell’s Law of Computer Class Formation Technology enables two evolutionary paths: 1. constant performance, decreasing cost 2. constant price, increasing performance 1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 =.62 Mini Handheld ?? Time Mainframes (central) PCs (personals) Log price WSs

23 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Bell’s Nine Computer Price Tiers Super server: costs more than $100,000,000 “Mainframe”: costs more than $1 million an array of processors, disks, tapes, comm ports 1$: embeddables e.g. greeting card 10$: wrist watch & wallet computers 100$:pocket/ palm/telephone 1,000$:portable computers 10,000$: personal computers (desktop) 100,000$: departmental computers (closet) 1,000,000$:site computers (glass house) 10,000,000$:regional computers (glass castle) 100,000,000$:national centers

24 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Platform evolution: What do they do that’s useful? How do they communicate?

25 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Connected PCs (WWW) Discrete PC ( ) Info Appliances Hand-helds Cellphones & phone access Game Consoles Set-tops & NCs 9M Units 60M Units 250M Units Sources: Network Computer Inc. & IDC Changing Internet access

26 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Number of U.S. Subscribers using high speed interconnections NXGEN

27 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved Circuit data <9.6kbps HSCSD 57.6kbps GPRS 115kbps EDGE 384kbps UMTS 2Mbps 0.1 The evolution of wireless data standards

28 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Nomadicity Video... Plus >>B/W Universality USA Today 1 Sept. 99

29 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.

30 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Radio

31 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Ch 54 (Boulder) announcement 9/8/99

32 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved Federal Plan for Internet

33 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. 10 Tbps 100 Tbps 1 Tbps 100 Gbps 10 Gbps 1 Gbps 100 Mbps 10 Mbps 1 Mbps 100 Kbps 10 Kbps 1 Kbps 100 bps 10 bps 1 Pbps Voice Traffic 56 KB T1 T3 OC-3 OC-12 OC-48 OC-192 OC-768 Voice Crossover Internet Traffic Max. Port Speed $100 M $10 M $1 M $100 K 1997 Breakpoint Delay Engineered Capacity Engineered Max. Switch Speed 100 Pbps 10 Pbps Internet growths vs time courtesy of Dr. Larry Roberts

34 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. 1 gbps microsoft.com/ ~gray/papers/ Win2K_1Gbps.doc

35 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.

36 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Mail/ FTP/ Telnet WWW AudioVideo Voice! Standards Increase Capacity (circuits & b/w) Lower response time Create new service Increased Demand Virtuous cycle of bandwidth

37 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Minutes to transfer various data

38 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. In a decade we can/will have: more powerful personal computers u processing x u 4x resolution (2K x 2K); u Very large, room sized displays? u Very small watch-sized displays u low cost, storage of one terabyte for personal use adequate networking???? u ubiquitous access = today’s fast LANs One chip, networked platforms including light bulbs, cameras everywhere, etc. Some well-defined platforms that compete with the PC for mind (time) share watch, pocket, body implant, home more cyberization… the challenge… interfacing platforms and people.

39 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Storing all we’ve read (written), heard (said), & seen (participated in or presented) Human data-types /hr/day (/4yr)/lifetime read text, few pictures200 K M/G G speech 43 K 0.5 M/G 15 G 3.6 M 40 M/G1.2 T video-like 50Kb/s POTS 22 M.25 G/T 25 T video 200Kb/s VHS-lite 90 M1 G/T100 T video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G20 G/T 1 P

40 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Living in Cyberspace … the home infrastructure being always connected is essential...or why cable tv or ADSL or ubiquitous fast, wireless is critical for continued growth

41 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Infrastructure

42 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Home CATV Analog/digital cable distribution PC broadcasts are mixed into home CATV in analog and/or MPEG digital Ethernet Home network Video capture “milliBill” Basic ideas: 1. PC records or plays thru video cable channels. 2. PC “broadcasts” art images, webcams, presentations, videos, DVDs, etc. 3. Ethernet not cable? Settop box Another big bang? Internet to TV and audio: The Net, PC meet the TV

43 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. PCTV a.k.a. MilliBillg Using PCs to drive large screens e.g. tv sets, Plasma Panels Gordon Bell Jim Gemmell Bay Area Research Center Microsoft Research Copyright 1999 Microsoft Corporation

44 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. PCTV: A home CATV Server Television/Computing Convergence A PC server broadcasts “content*” to TV sets directly or to all sets using the home CATV distribution The PC captures TV streams for filtering, storage, replay, etc. ala TiVO and ReplayTV Cameras and the web provide content *Content: art, photos, PPT Albums, webcams, plain old TV, home video, DVD, MTV, games… For display on 16 x 9 format … or 852 x 480 Fujitsu Plasma Panel

45 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.

46 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. I stretched the canvas.

47 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.

48 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.

49 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Cousins, Aunts, Uncles etc.

50 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Webcams

51 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Voice to WEB Bridge Web Server Web Server TheWeb DataBase PSTN The Next Convergence POTS connects to the Web a.k.a. Phone-Web Gateways

52 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Enable voice and text access on phones, screen phones, PDAs and other devices to existing Internet infrastructure in an intelligent, customizable way.WebOnPhoneMission: WebOnPhone

53 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. All the services build on the evolving infrastructure

54 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Internet (circa 1995) Courtesy of Zindigo Ventures Transport Network Hardware/Protocols Computers & Operating Layer Software Applications & Middleware Infobases/PortalsAccessCommunication Internet Services $0.5B* Infrastructure $4.5B* * University of Texas Center for Research in Electronic Commerce - Total estimated at $5B

55 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Internet (circa 1999) Courtesy of Zindigo Ventures Transport Network Hardware/Protocols Computers & Operating Layer Software Applications & Middleware Infobases/PortalsProcurementCommunication Supply Chain ERPProfessionalFinancial Operations Marketing Internet Services $170B* Infrastructure $171B* * University of Texas Center for Research in Electronic Commerce ** This market is not yest sized, estimated at $2B+,growing to $100B in 2002 Access Personal/Employee Data Government Content Syndicators Content Syndication $2B+ ** Web Hosting

56 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. The Nature of E-services u Only electrons, no atoms e.g. inventory u Verticals: ERP, benefits, time card, travel, performance rev, payroll, calendars, procurement, facilities, marketing tools, u Transaction (filing, retrieval) under control of individual from browser, not an administrator, department, or corporation u Alternative to: manual, home grown apps, or retooled large legacy licensed apps e.g. Oracle, Peoplesoft, SAP u Information is stored at the service NOT on premise with the organization providing it u Service up and running instantaneously.

57 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. ERP E-Services Definition: ERP E-services provide human resources and the back office (time and expense reporting, invoicing, purchase order management, hiring and performance plans) as an outsourced monthly Web service.

58 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Internet-based service for keeping medical records electronically …EMR No on site or in office equipment except a browser and printer Facilities u rapid input and record retrieval u accessible anywhere at anytime u patient accessible u prescription drug interaction, advice, etc.

59 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.

60 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. MS internal home for adminstrivia

61 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Paperless paychecks

62 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Stock options

63 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Impact on the financial industries: Eliminating the atoms that represent money, ownership, … risk and replacing them with electrons…

64 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. New or old money… it’s just bits Prepaid Credit Cash Check ATM / Prepaid

65 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Put those checks & statements in Cyberspace or eliminate them!

66 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Buying & selling stock: what a pain! Faxes? ( Electronic signatures are becoming “legal”.) Acrobat 4 has tamper-proof signatures!

67 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Paperless transactions: put them all in Cyberspace

68 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Telepresentations: The 2nd killer app?

69 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Telepresentations Being there (e.g. meeting, lecture, conference) Without Really Being There (or Then) Presenter or audience need not be physically present Reach a wider audience u “I have a schedule conflict.” u Anybody with a web connection can participate Reduce costs u No need to travel to attend or participate in a presentation Education & training, corporate communication

70 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.

71 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Telepresentation Elements Slides Audio Video Script, text comments, hyperlinks, etc.

72 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Telepresentations will be a well-defined app by ACM97 was the first telepresented conference with Mbone multicast & servers that host the conference cf. Bet: More people will view the conference from Cyberspace than that attended it. Big question: will telepresentation technology AKA tele-learning affect learning and education?

73 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Telecollaboration… The next “killer tele-app”?? Or just a tremendous challenge interacting to achieve a common objective … basically, its communications enabling or disabling people

74 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Telework: It takes screens, sound, and bandwidth, stupid

75 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. How to Fail at Videoconferencing Lack of ubiquity: it must obey Metcalfe’s Law Call set up: hard, time-consuming, require training Small screens, destroy spatiality, eliminate visual cues No gaze awareness, limit screen area; only 2-D figures or avatars Audio: high latency and poor quality Fail to beat the competition! The phone is ubiquitous, requires no manuals or training, low latency, ok audio The targets: audio quality, 3-D in every sense, and gaze awareness

76 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Four steps to video-telephony enabling telemeetings Very low cost IP telephony must first become ubiquitous (bandwidth, jitter, lower latency) Evolve audio to provide spatial awareness aka stereo and quad. Add multi-party, scalability, mbone… Make recording easy. This will enable meeting persistence and minutes.

77 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. End