NextGen 101 and The Weather Information Database Oct 6th, 2009 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Oct 6th, 2009 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology

2 Overview NextGen 101 What is the Weather Information Database (WIDB) and the Single Authoritative Source Why NOAA? What are we doing now The roadmap ahead Broader benefits to NOAA Science Issues and the 4-D Cube Summary NextGen 101 What is the Weather Information Database (WIDB) and the Single Authoritative Source Why NOAA? What are we doing now The roadmap ahead Broader benefits to NOAA Science Issues and the 4-D Cube Summary

3 So what is NextGen? NextGen is a Congressionally mandated initiative to modernize the U.S Air Transportation System in order to: Increase capacity and reliability Improve safety and security Minimize the environmental impact of aviation NextGen is a Congressionally mandated initiative to modernize the U.S Air Transportation System in order to: Increase capacity and reliability Improve safety and security Minimize the environmental impact of aviation

4 So what is NextGen? These improvements to the air transportation system will be achieved by applying: Space-based navigation and integrated surveillance Digital communications Layered adaptive security Weather integrated into decision-making Advanced automation of Air Traffic Management Net-centric information access for operations These improvements to the air transportation system will be achieved by applying: Space-based navigation and integrated surveillance Digital communications Layered adaptive security Weather integrated into decision-making Advanced automation of Air Traffic Management Net-centric information access for operations

5 The 8 Key Capabilities

6 NextGen 101 Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has determined two thirds of this is preventable with better weather information (better content, better assimilation, better consistency, etc…) "A key finding, based on an analysis of several convective events, is that as much as two-thirds of the weather related delay is potentially avoidable." -Research, Engineering and Development Advisory Committee; Report of the Weather-ATM Integration Working Group; Oct3, 2007 Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has determined two thirds of this is preventable with better weather information (better content, better assimilation, better consistency, etc…) "A key finding, based on an analysis of several convective events, is that as much as two-thirds of the weather related delay is potentially avoidable." -Research, Engineering and Development Advisory Committee; Report of the Weather-ATM Integration Working Group; Oct3, 2007

7 NextGen 101 “The total cost of domestic air traffic delays to the U.S. economy was as much as $41 billion for 2007.”* Air-traffic delays raised airlines' operating costs by $19 billion. Delays cost passengers time worth up to $12 billion. Indirect costs of delay to other industries added roughly $10 billion to the total burden. *Your Flight Has Been Delayed Again; Congressional Joint Economic Committee; May 2008 “The total cost of domestic air traffic delays to the U.S. economy was as much as $41 billion for 2007.”* Air-traffic delays raised airlines' operating costs by $19 billion. Delays cost passengers time worth up to $12 billion. Indirect costs of delay to other industries added roughly $10 billion to the total burden. *Your Flight Has Been Delayed Again; Congressional Joint Economic Committee; May 2008

8 NextGen 101 NextGen goals are not achievable without improving integration of weather information into decision support systems NextGen weather vision (a major paradigm shift) is focused on: Providing a multiple user common weather picture Consistent and reliable weather information An improved weather information data storage approach containing observation and forecast data (i.e., the WIDB or the “4 Dimensional Weather Data Cube”) enabling NextGen dissemination capabilities NextGen goals are not achievable without improving integration of weather information into decision support systems NextGen weather vision (a major paradigm shift) is focused on: Providing a multiple user common weather picture Consistent and reliable weather information An improved weather information data storage approach containing observation and forecast data (i.e., the WIDB or the “4 Dimensional Weather Data Cube”) enabling NextGen dissemination capabilities

9 NextGen 101; Key Themes A Net-centric (net-enabled) capability is envisioned: “Network Enabled”… An information network that makes information available, securable, and usable in real time Information may be pushed to known users and is available to be pulled by others Weather information sharing is two-way “Virtual” repository with no single physical database or computer Conceptually unified source distributed among multiple physical locations and suppliers, of which NOAA is the leading data supplier A Net-centric (net-enabled) capability is envisioned: “Network Enabled”… An information network that makes information available, securable, and usable in real time Information may be pushed to known users and is available to be pulled by others Weather information sharing is two-way “Virtual” repository with no single physical database or computer Conceptually unified source distributed among multiple physical locations and suppliers, of which NOAA is the leading data supplier

10 NextGen Weather Basics Today NextGen (new requirements) Not integrated into aviation decision support systems (DSS) Today’s requirements can lead to inconsistent info Low temporal resolution (for aviation decision making purposes) Disseminated in minutes Updated by schedule Fixed product formats (graphic or text) Totally integrated into DSS Updated requirements/ Nationally consistent High temporal resolution Disseminated in seconds Updated by events Flexible formats

11 What is the WIDB? The WIDB (aka the 4-Dimensional Weather Data Cube) will contain: Continuously updated weather observations (surface to low earth orbit, including space weather and ocean parameters) High resolution (space and time) analysis and forecast information (conventional weather parameters from numerical models) Aviation impact parameters for IOC (2013) Turbulence Icing Convection Ceiling and visibility Winds (surface and aloft) The WIDB of the future will contain “all” weather data, not just aviation parameters. The WIDB (aka the 4-Dimensional Weather Data Cube) will contain: Continuously updated weather observations (surface to low earth orbit, including space weather and ocean parameters) High resolution (space and time) analysis and forecast information (conventional weather parameters from numerical models) Aviation impact parameters for IOC (2013) Turbulence Icing Convection Ceiling and visibility Winds (surface and aloft) The WIDB of the future will contain “all” weather data, not just aviation parameters.

12 What is the 4-D Weather Single Authoritative Source? The 4-D Wx Single Authoritative Source (SAS): Is only a portion of the WIDB Provides a common weather picture for National Air Space (NAS) participants (Airlines, DoD, FAA, etc.) Is the basis for all aviation decisions by Air Traffic Management (ATM) in the FAA Is formed by merger of model data, automated gridded algorithms, climatology and observational data, and meteorologist input/data manipulation to ensure consistency and accuracy The 4-D Wx Single Authoritative Source (SAS): Is only a portion of the WIDB Provides a common weather picture for National Air Space (NAS) participants (Airlines, DoD, FAA, etc.) Is the basis for all aviation decisions by Air Traffic Management (ATM) in the FAA Is formed by merger of model data, automated gridded algorithms, climatology and observational data, and meteorologist input/data manipulation to ensure consistency and accuracy

13 Definition of 4-D Wx SAS at FOC The Single Authoritative Source (SAS) is a subset of the NextGen 4-Dimensional Weather Data Cube (WIDB) that supports the civil Air Navigation Service Provider’s (ANSP) Air Traffic Management (ATM) decisions. By Final Operational Capability (FOC), the SAS will: provide the optimal representation of all ANSP-used weather information that is consistent in time, space, and among weather elements be accessible to all be the source of weather information for the ANSP’s ATM decisions be specified by the ANSP be network-enabled as part of the 4-D Wx Data Cube.

14 Evolution of 4-D Wx SAS SAS at IOC will improve Access significantly Content somewhat SAS Change Drivers Scientific advances – improved weather information Changes in NAS operational capabilities – changing needs for weather information

15 The WIDB: A Conceptual Model WIDB Custom Graphic Generators Custom Graphic Generators Integration into User Decisions Decision Support Systems Decision Support Systems Custom Alphanumeric Generators Custom Alphanumeric Generators Observations Numerical Modeling Systems Numerical Modeling Systems Statistical Forecasting Systems Statistical Forecasting Systems NWS Forecaster NWS Forecaster Forecasting Automated Forecast Systems Automated Forecast Systems Forecast Integration 4D Wx SAS Radars Aircraft Surface Satellites Soundings

16 Why NOAA? NOAA is the most logical integrator and operator of this data cube based on its: Extensive experience with data ingest and assimilation Ownership of major observation and modeling capabilities Experienced meteorological workforce Legislative mandate to provide weather to the FAA Existing related capabilities such as AWIPS and NDFD NOAA is the most logical integrator and operator of this data cube based on its: Extensive experience with data ingest and assimilation Ownership of major observation and modeling capabilities Experienced meteorological workforce Legislative mandate to provide weather to the FAA Existing related capabilities such as AWIPS and NDFD

17 Why NOAA? “NOAA stands ready to accept the role as the Office of Primary Responsibility for Weather Information Services as this responsibility is core to NOAA’s mission, and we are confident that [the IWP] will enable us to better align NOAA’s weather portfolio with NextGen” Mary Glackin; April 7, 2008 “NOAA stands ready to accept the role as the Office of Primary Responsibility for Weather Information Services as this responsibility is core to NOAA’s mission, and we are confident that [the IWP] will enable us to better align NOAA’s weather portfolio with NextGen” Mary Glackin; April 7, 2008 Integrated Work Plan Defines Our Role

18 So What’s Happening Now? Multi-agency initiatives: NextGen Network Enabled Weather (NNEW) IOC Development Team – coordinates teams below: Environmental Information Team – What’s in the Cube IT and Enterprise Services Team – Cube IT or “plumbing” Policy Team – Governance, cost apportionment, data rights, etc… Demonstration Team – library of government sponsored and private industry demos Requirements Development – FAA leads development of functional and performance requirements Integrated Science Roadmap – NOAA’s OAR leading initiative Multi-agency initiatives: NextGen Network Enabled Weather (NNEW) IOC Development Team – coordinates teams below: Environmental Information Team – What’s in the Cube IT and Enterprise Services Team – Cube IT or “plumbing” Policy Team – Governance, cost apportionment, data rights, etc… Demonstration Team – library of government sponsored and private industry demos Requirements Development – FAA leads development of functional and performance requirements Integrated Science Roadmap – NOAA’s OAR leading initiative

19 Who’s Who in NextGen

20 The Roadmap Ahead Initial Operational Capability (2013) Integrated environmental information sources Initial meteorologist oversight of gridded data Common data standards and protocols Network-enabled information exchange Intermediate Capability (2016) Improved modeling and science enables higher resolution more accurate information Full Network compatibility of environmental information Direct integration of weather into Air Traffic Management Systems Full Operational Capability (2022) All NextGen requirements met and benefits achieved High resolution, nested scale forecasts available for all elements Full network connectivity ensures consistent information use across service areas and user groups Initial Operational Capability (2013) Integrated environmental information sources Initial meteorologist oversight of gridded data Common data standards and protocols Network-enabled information exchange Intermediate Capability (2016) Improved modeling and science enables higher resolution more accurate information Full Network compatibility of environmental information Direct integration of weather into Air Traffic Management Systems Full Operational Capability (2022) All NextGen requirements met and benefits achieved High resolution, nested scale forecasts available for all elements Full network connectivity ensures consistent information use across service areas and user groups

21 4-D Weather Cube Broader Benefits to NOAA Aviation driven consistency and accuracy requirements will improve all NWS services Consistency challenges not unique to aviation More accurate public forecasts because of aviation driven high resolution modeling requirements Improved severe weather lead times because of aviation driven convective forecasts Implements “Warn on Forecast” technologies Aviation driven consistency and accuracy requirements will improve all NWS services Consistency challenges not unique to aviation More accurate public forecasts because of aviation driven high resolution modeling requirements Improved severe weather lead times because of aviation driven convective forecasts Implements “Warn on Forecast” technologies

22 4-D Weather Cube Broader Benefits to NOAA Improved access to all NWS products and services via the cube Supports automated decision assistance tools for other agencies and entities beyond FAA IT and Data Management enhancements Establish a central repository and access for critical NWS products and services beyond aviation Support GEOSS requirements Enhances continuity of operations Extends the AWIPS enterprise services into a ‘system of systems’ linking AWIPS, MADIS, NDFD, GOES, NEXRAD, etc… Improved access to all NWS products and services via the cube Supports automated decision assistance tools for other agencies and entities beyond FAA IT and Data Management enhancements Establish a central repository and access for critical NWS products and services beyond aviation Support GEOSS requirements Enhances continuity of operations Extends the AWIPS enterprise services into a ‘system of systems’ linking AWIPS, MADIS, NDFD, GOES, NEXRAD, etc…

23 Science Issues and Challenges Consistency The Forecast Process Convective Modeling Model Enhancements and Improvements Verification Turning “stovepipes” into a System of Systems Consistency The Forecast Process Convective Modeling Model Enhancements and Improvements Verification Turning “stovepipes” into a System of Systems

24 The “Consistency” Issue The FAA requirements consider consistency just as important as accuracy Consistency Challenges: Spatial Internal “Representativeness” – (Does a click inside the cube really represent what I see outside?) The FAA requirements consider consistency just as important as accuracy Consistency Challenges: Spatial Internal “Representativeness” – (Does a click inside the cube really represent what I see outside?)

25 NextGen Weather Challenges The Forecast Process: Most existing NWS forecast processes not designed to meet the resolution, refresh and latency requirements of NextGen Temporal and Spatial resolution – Are NextGen observation and forecast requirements viable? Will model researchers and developers have the resources available? NOAA and research partner R&D focusing on Meteorologist-in-the-Loop (MITL) and Meteorologist-over-the-Loop (MOTL) techniques Changing forecast process culture is complex and possibly controversial

26 Convective Modeling Aviation requirements are demanding higher resolution models Convection in the short term time frame: 0-2 hours for tactical planning 2-8 hours for strategic planning Resolution requirements based on Terminal – within 100km radius of an airport, aka Super Density Operations (SDO) Enroute – within the National Airspace System (NAS), aka Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) Global – outside the NAS Aviation requirements are demanding higher resolution models Convection in the short term time frame: 0-2 hours for tactical planning 2-8 hours for strategic planning Resolution requirements based on Terminal – within 100km radius of an airport, aka Super Density Operations (SDO) Enroute – within the National Airspace System (NAS), aka Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) Global – outside the NAS

27 Verification NextGen suggests verification schemes that measure operational impacts Move away from traditional verification methodology like PoD and FAR An example is the Weather Impact Traffic Index, WITI Measures efficiency of the NAS operation, but weather is only one factor Factors in airport capacity, time of day, traffic corridor, etc… NWS/FAA is collaboratively working on the “Terminal Forecast WITI” which is a forecast of the NAS operation at a terminal or a corridor

28 The System of Systems Challenge Getting out the message Communicating with the FAA Building real use cases NWS support from the regions, the field, and the NCEP centers Interagency security and governance Getting out the message Communicating with the FAA Building real use cases NWS support from the regions, the field, and the NCEP centers Interagency security and governance

29 Summary NextGen will require significant changes in the way weather information is produced The NextGen paradigm suggests that most weather information will be assimilated into decision support tools and the decision making process NOAA has been designated as the Office of Primary Responsibility (OPR) to build and deploy a 4-D Weather Data Cube (WIDB) by IOC (2013) and beyond Even though NOAA is the OPR, multi-agency teams are working all the issues involved with the cube The FAA is leading the Integration effort and this is just getting started NextGen will require significant changes in the way weather information is produced The NextGen paradigm suggests that most weather information will be assimilated into decision support tools and the decision making process NOAA has been designated as the Office of Primary Responsibility (OPR) to build and deploy a 4-D Weather Data Cube (WIDB) by IOC (2013) and beyond Even though NOAA is the OPR, multi-agency teams are working all the issues involved with the cube The FAA is leading the Integration effort and this is just getting started

30 Summary The WIDB will clearly have benefits to NOAA and the NWS beyond aviation There are many important science issues, including consistency, model resolution, observation strategies, and verification which must be addressed as we move toward a comprehensive 4-D Wx Cube The WIDB will clearly have benefits to NOAA and the NWS beyond aviation There are many important science issues, including consistency, model resolution, observation strategies, and verification which must be addressed as we move toward a comprehensive 4-D Wx Cube

31 BACKGROUND SLIDES What can we leverage…. BACKGROUND SLIDES What can we leverage….

32 What can we leverage? Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS) Extremely popular aviation weather web service Not just a display capability Already has many NextGen data service capabilities Data service easily capable of supporting the standards and protocols envisioned with NextGen Has existing capability to support 4D data cube Slices, dices, and returns a subset of data (flight paths or subset cubes) Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS) Extremely popular aviation weather web service Not just a display capability Already has many NextGen data service capabilities Data service easily capable of supporting the standards and protocols envisioned with NextGen Has existing capability to support 4D data cube Slices, dices, and returns a subset of data (flight paths or subset cubes)

33 What can we leverage? National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) Could be called the “SAS” of public weather forecast mission Net-centric approach Need to add aviation parameters in the vertical Logistically very complicated if to be populated by each WFO National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) Could be called the “SAS” of public weather forecast mission Net-centric approach Need to add aviation parameters in the vertical Logistically very complicated if to be populated by each WFO

34 What can we leverage? Interactive Calibration of Aviation Grids in 4 Dimensions (IC4D) Aviation weather research community (NCAR) now producing 4-D (x, y, z, t) gridded guidance for parameters such as turbulence and icing (RUC2-based) operational forecasters may be able to add skill to the forecast guidance Interacting with a 4-D data set containing multiple parameters presents a huge challenge, operationally Alaska AAWU working with IC4D and has provided positive feedback Interactive Calibration of Aviation Grids in 4 Dimensions (IC4D) Aviation weather research community (NCAR) now producing 4-D (x, y, z, t) gridded guidance for parameters such as turbulence and icing (RUC2-based) operational forecasters may be able to add skill to the forecast guidance Interacting with a 4-D data set containing multiple parameters presents a huge challenge, operationally Alaska AAWU working with IC4D and has provided positive feedback

35 What can we leverage? Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) Hourly updates of GFS MOS data for aviation Uses hourly observations (METAR, lightning, and radar data) to update MOS guidance Statistically outperforming persistence and MOS during early forecast periods Currently have gridded probabilistic thunderstorm forecasts Moving toward other gridded products, including probabilistic ceiling height and visibility forecasts Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) Hourly updates of GFS MOS data for aviation Uses hourly observations (METAR, lightning, and radar data) to update MOS guidance Statistically outperforming persistence and MOS during early forecast periods Currently have gridded probabilistic thunderstorm forecasts Moving toward other gridded products, including probabilistic ceiling height and visibility forecasts

36 What can we leverage? Auto-nowcaster a program to determine the role of the forecaster in providing value- added enhancements to automated, gridded aviation convective products goal is to improve the consistency, reliability, and accuracy of 0-2 hour convective forecast products for automated aviation weather digital products (4-D grids) for the NAS being considered in 2009 as part of a multi-agency NextGen demo in Florida Auto-nowcaster a program to determine the role of the forecaster in providing value- added enhancements to automated, gridded aviation convective products goal is to improve the consistency, reliability, and accuracy of 0-2 hour convective forecast products for automated aviation weather digital products (4-D grids) for the NAS being considered in 2009 as part of a multi-agency NextGen demo in Florida