2015/6/21 Development of Emissions Scenarios Database for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and Regional Mitigation Analysis - A Review of Post-SRES Scenarios.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

WRI CAIT Climate Analysis Indicators Tool Esther Lahme ECOFYS Cologne.

Advertisements

Quantifying future emission paths: What is needed from whom to keep stabilization in reach 18 October 2005 Niklas Höhne, ECOFYS Cologne,

The innovation challenge STAKEHOLDER CONFERENCE "Post-2012 climate policy for the EU" 22 NOVEMBER 2004 Niklas Höhne ECOFYS Cologne,

The energy issue and the possible contribution of various nuclear energy production scenarios H.Nifenecker Scientific consultant LPSC/CNRS Chairman of.

National Inventories of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Yamil Bonduki Coordinator National Communications Support Programme.

Analyses of World Supply of Natural Gas with DNE21+ Model.

Climate Protection Strategies and Transformation of Energy Systems Dr. Astrid Schulz German Advisory Council on Global Change WBGU Secretariat.

Global Economic and Energy Outlook International Aviation Fuel Conference and Exhibition Christof Ruehl, Chief Economist, BP p.l.c. Beijing, April 2012.

Reflections on Key Messages in Recent Reports

Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report © dreamstime Prof. Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer Co-Chair, IPCC Working Group III WCERE, Istanbul,

Trends in Financial Flows and Technology Transfer Daniele Violetti Programme Officer, Technology Climate Change Secretariat (UNFCCC) UNFCCC Workshop on.

Brief Overview of the Second Generation Model Presentation to U.S. EPA Science Advisory Board SAB Second Generation Model (SGM) Advisory Panel Dr. Michael.

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004: Key Trends and Challenges Marco Baroni Energy Analyst Economic Analysis Division INTERNATIONAL HYDROGEN.

1/18 Long-term Scenarios for Climate Change-Implications for Energy, GHG Emissions and Air Quality Shilpa Rao, International Institute of Applied Systems.

Technology in the ‘Triptych’ approach Michel den Elzen, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, associated with RIVM.

THE NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSE POLICY Mitigation System National Climate Change Response Policy 26 May 2015.

School of Fusion Reactor Technology Erice, July 26th - August 1st 2004 A LOW CARBON ECONOMY SERGIO LA MOTTA ENEA CLIMATE PROJECT.

OECD Model simulations for OECD’s Environmental Outlook: Methods and Results Presentation at the Fourth Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis Purdue.

Global and Regional Emissions and Mitigation Policies (with Application of ERB model for India) P.R. Shukla.

SGM P.R. Shukla. Second Generation Model Top-Down Economic Models  Project baseline carbon emissions over time for a country or group of countries 

IIM Ahmedabad Climate Policy Modeling: Some Insights for India Presentation by P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad COP 8 Side-event (October.

00002-E-1 – 1 December 2003 Global summary of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, December 2003 The ranges around the estimates in this table define the boundaries.

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Climate Change and the IPCC Fourth Assessment Jean Palutikof Head, Technical Support Unit.

Coal-fired electricity generation 1.Accounts for 39% of world electricity production – the most important source of electricity in OECD and non-OECD. 2.Accounts.

Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol and Civil Engineering Dr Stuart Parkinson

Global Warming & the Kyoto Protocols. The topic of global warming inspires heated debates among world leaders. The topic of global warming inspires heated.

Carbon Capture and Storage: What Does Integrated Assessment Modelling Analysis Tell Us? Dr Vaibhav Chaturvedi Research Fellow Council on Energy, Environment.

Sergey Paltsev Massachusetts Institute of Technology Low-Carbon Russia: Myth or Reality? Moscow, Russia January 15, 2015.

Economic Implications of Global Convergence on Emission Intensities Govinda R. Timilsina Senior Economist The World Bank, Washington, DC 32 nd USAEE/IAEE.

Application of IIASA GAINS Model for Integrated Assessment of Air Pollution in Europe Janusz Cofala International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

Global Economy, Energy and Environment: An Overview.

CO 2 Emissions Embodied in Austrian International Trade Kurt Kratena, Ina Meyer Austrian Institute of Economic Research – WIFO 11. FIW-Workshop Studien.

Climate Change Mitigation and Sustainable Development: A Framework for Integration John Robinson CLA, WGIII July 18, 2001.

© OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights Pawel Olejarnik Research Analyst International Energy Agency.

Results from UIUC Simple Climate Model Evaluation of the Relative Contributions of the Regional Emissions by Annex I and Non-Annex I to the Historical.

HOW SINKS IN WOOD PRODUCTS AFFECT THE COST OF KYOTO PROTOCOL AND WORLD TRADE OF WOOD PRODUCTS: results from a global economywide model Johanna Pohjola.

Low carbon scenarios for the UK Energy White Paper Peter G Taylor Presented at “Energy, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios” June.

Baseline developments for NEC Directie revision Projections Expert Panel 25 October 2007 Dublin, Ireland Eduard Dame DG Environment C5, Energy & Environment.

© OECD/IEA Mtoe Other renewables Hydro Nuclear Biomass Gas.

Non-CO 2 Greenhouse Gas Offset Projects: Basic Considerations Karl H. Schultz Climate Mitigation Works International LLC Panel Three: Design Issues RGGI.

Role of Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) in climate change policy analysis The Global Integrated Assessment Model (GIAM) An ABARE-CSIRO joint initiative.

Janusz Cofala and Markus Amann Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Application.

Page, Rivers and Climate Policy: A Comment Chris Green McGill University Queens IIGR Conference on Environmental Policy October 17, 18,

Fredrik Hedenus Physical Resource Theory Fredrik Hedenus Physical Resource Theory Chalmers University of Technology. The role of.

Sustainable Energy Systems The EU “WETO” World Energy, Technology and climate policy Outlook 2030 Domenico Rossetti di Valdalbero European Commission,

Future Emissions and Mitigation Modeling National Institute for Environmental Studies Mikiko Kainuma Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate.

00002-E-1 – 1 December 2003 Adults and children estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS as of end 2003 Total: 34 – 46 million Western Europe – 680.

Overview: Mitigation of Climate Change UNFCCC COP 6 Part Two Special Event, July 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report.

Industrial Processes and Product Use William K. Agyemang-Bonsu Environmental Protection Agency Ghana.

SRES Approach to Scenario Formation Linda O. Mearns NCAR/ICTP GECAFS Meeting Reading, UK August 2003.

Long-term Technology Strategy for Global GHG Stabilization: with Application for India P.R. Shukla.

Integrated Assessment and IPCC: Links between climate change and sub-global environmental issues presentation at Task Force Integrated Assessment Modelling,

Energy Demand Outlook by Mohamed Ariff Based on Data from The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan.

The Emissions Gap Report 2015 Geneva ♦ 6 November, 2015 What contributions do the INDCs make towards the 2 0 C target? How can the 2030 emissions gap be.

Keeping warming below 2°C: link and consistency between INDC assessments and long-term goals Joeri Rogelj Side Event COP21 - Paris 1 December 2015.

Climate Change Mitigation in South Africa Addendum to main presentation 15 th September 2009.

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE What is the Cost of Not Having Nuclear Power or Carbon Capture and Storage While Still Stabilizing.

DEVELOPMENT, INEQUALITY, AND THE CARBON INTENSITY OF HUMAN WELL-BEING: PATHWAYS TO SUSTAINABILITY? Andrew Jorgenson Professor Department of Sociology Environmental.

Johnthescone “Climate Change Mitigation and Sustainable Development: Lessons for Latin America and the Caribbean” Dr. Ramón Pichs-Madruga WG III Co-Chair.

Sustainable Development: Cooperation in FEALAC Sustainable Development: Cooperation in FEALAC October ，２００ 7 Economy and Society WG Delegation of Japan.

How Carbon Intensity Effects Kaya. Population 2014 Population Growth Rates USA:.77 Definition: The average annual percent change in the population, resulting.

Shenghui Cui Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences April 24,2013 Sustainability and Low Carbon city ： A Case Study of Xiamen, China.

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Research Domain Sustainable Solutions 1 Analysis of Post-2012 Climate Policy Regimes Marian Leimbach/Lavinia.

| Paul Lucas 1 Future energy system challenges for Africa: Insights from Integrated Assessment Models 1 st Africa Sustainable Development Forum.

Paragraph 29 Study: Study on the various types of mercury- emitting sources, current and future trends of mercury emissions, including analyzing and assessing.

1 Co-benefits of CO 2 Reduction in a Developing Country: Case of Thailand Ram M. Shrestha and Shreekar Pradhan Asian Institute of Technology Thailand INTERNATIONAL.

WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2002 Focus on European Union

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) - a new scenario framework to provide key narratives for different climate futures Alexander Nauels, Zebedee Nicholls.

GHG trends and projections for Annex I Parties

Regional HIV and AIDS statistics 2008 and 2001

Presentation transcript:

2015/6/21 Development of Emissions Scenarios Database for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and Regional Mitigation Analysis - A Review of Post-SRES Scenarios - International Energy Workshop , July 2005 National Institute for Environmental Studies Tatsuya HANAOKA ・ Mikiko KAINUMA Kyoto University Reina KAWASE ・ Yuzuru MATSUOKA

2015/6/22 Overview 1.Background and Previous Work 2.Outline of Emissions Scenarios Database 3.Development of Emissions Scenarios Database 4.Quantitative Analysis. 5.Conclusions and Future Work

2015/6/23 Emissions scenarios vary depending on various socio-economic development pathways Morita and Matsuoka started to develop emissions scenarios database since 1992, to contribute for IPCC Assessment Background and Previous Work Background: ◆ Nakicenovic, and Morita et al (1998) 428 scenarios of global and regional GHG emissions from 176 literature sources ◆ Rana, and Morita (2000) 75 scenarios of global and regional GHG emissions from 25 literature sources Previous results of the Database: utilized for SRES utilized for TAR

2015/6/24 Outline of Emissions Scenarios Database ① CategoryExample inventory Driving ForcePopulation, GDP, … EnergyOil, Coal, Gas, … Emission SOx, NOx CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, SOx, NOx … OthersEnergy Intensity, Carbon Intensity, Temperature Change, Sea Level Rise, …

2015/6/25 Outline of Emissions Scenarios Database ② Data Source Number of data source Data source reviewed by IPCC SAR etc. 40 Data source described in the scientific literatures and conferences such as EMF, IEW etc. 125 Data source reviewed by SRES process and Post- SRES process 41 Data source of national scenarios described in National Communication submitted to UNFCCC 45 Data source in the current database ◆ Data source in the current database

2015/6/26 Scope of Work Update the current Emissions Scenarios Database ◆ Update the current Emissions Scenarios Database Analyze various new mitigation scenarios since TAR. ◆ Analyze various new mitigation scenarios since TAR. Contribute for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

2015/6/27 Development of Database Subject matter: New mitigation scenarios since TAR ● Subject matter: New mitigation scenarios since TAR ● Regional scale: Global, regional and national level analysis ● Regional scale: Global, regional and national level analysis ● Temporal scale: Scenarios with horizons beyond 2030 ● Temporal scale: Scenarios with horizons beyond 2030 ● Gas classifications: all anthropogenic GHGs ● Gas classifications: all anthropogenic GHGs CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs, PFCs, SF 6, CO, NMVOC, SOx, NOx and Black Carbon etc ● Sector classifications: Multi-sector scenarios ● Sector classifications: Multi-sector scenarios Outline of scenarios of interest: “ Call for Scenarios ” was sent to more than one hundred researchers all over the world

2015/6/28 Outline of the updated Database Geographical coverage Data source Multiregional global scenario Single global scenario 835 Single & multinational regional scenario 418 National scenario 729 CategoryExample inventory Driving ForcePopulation, GDP EnergyOil, Coal, Gas, Nuclear, Renewable, … EmissionCO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFCs, PFCs, SF 6, SOx, NOx, … OthersEnergy Intensity, Carbon Intensity, Temperature Change, Sea Level Rise, Carbon Tax, CCS… Data source in the updated database ◆ Data source in the updated database Data objective ◆ Data objective

2015/6/29 Representative Regional Aggregations SRES4SRES9AR13Description REFREF FSU Former Soviet Union EEU Eastern Europe OECD90 WEUWEUOECD-Europe NAM CANCanada USAUSA PAO ANZ Australia, New Zealand JPNJapan ASIA SPA PAS Other Pacific Asia SAS South Asia CPACPA Centrally planned Asia and China ALM MEAMEA Middle East and North Africa AFRAFR Sub-Saharan Africa LAMLAM Latin America and the Caribbean

2015/6/210 Global CO 2 emission changes from baseline

2015/6/211 Total CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O emission changes from baseline in 2100

2015/6/212 Evaluation Method: the Kaya identity C : Net CO2 emission including CO2 capture and storage. Cs : Fossil&industrial CO2 emission. Ep : primary energy consumption. A : economic activity. S : the ratio of net CO2 emission to generated CO2 emission. i : carbon intensity (the ratio of generated CO2 emissions to primary energy consumption). e : energy intensity (the ratio of total primary energy consumption to economic activity).

2015/6/213 GDP growth & Energy Intensity Improvement under 550 ppmv Stabilization Scenarios (a)Annual rate from 2000 – 2050(b)Annual rate from 2000 – 2100

2015/6/214 GDP growth & Carbon Intensity Reduction under 550 ppmv Stabilization Scenarios (a)Annual rate from 2000 – 2050(b)Annual rate from 2000 – 2100

2015/6/215 Carbon Intensity & Energy Intensity under 550 ppmv Stabilization Scenarios (a)Annual rate from 2000 – 2050(b)Annual rate from 2000 – 2100

2015/6/216 Carbon Tax & Regional CO2 mitigation rate (a) Case in 2050(b) Case in 2100

2015/6/217 Cost of CO2 abatement relative to baseline projection (a) Case in 2050(b) Case in 2100

2015/6/218 Conclusions The development of the Emissions Scenarios Database would contribute to the understanding of future GHG emissions scenarios and can provide important insights for policy analysis. By updating the Database, it becomes available to analyze various new mitigation scenarios since TAR at the regional level as well as the global level

2015/6/219 Future Work This study is in an intermediate stage and there is scope for further refinement. ◆ ◆ contact as many researchers as possible in the collect and clarify more detailed data world and collect and clarify more detailed data ◆ ◆ collect more data from regional or national analyze emission reduction factors scenarios and analyze emission reduction factors in detail at the sub-regional and national levels in detail at the sub-regional and national levels ◆ pay attention to reduction measures for non-CO2 emissions emissions such as CH4, N2O, F gases etc

2015/6/220 Special Thanks for Researchers’ cooperation in this Database & Call for Scenarios Please visit e/db/enterprise/scenario/scenario_index_e.html Or Contact: