EDEN Integrated Project proposal Emerging Diseases in a changing European Environment Florence Putterman

FP6 call “ The aim is to identify, evaluate and catalogue European ecosystems and environmental conditions linked to global change, which can influence the spatial and temporal distribution and dynamics of pathogenic agents. A co-ordinated European approach is needed to provide predictive emergence and spread models including global and regional prevention, early warning, surveillance, and monitoring tools and scenarios. Co-ordination with international organizations and third world countries is essential.”

The aim is to identify, evaluate and catalogue European ecosystems and environmental conditions linked to global change and which can influence the spatial distribution the temporal distribution and the dynamics of pathogenic agents. Predictive emergeance and spread models including the following tools and scenarios: - Global and Regional prevention - Early warning - Surveillance - Monitoring Coordination with international organisations and third world countries. Keywords Coordinated European approach

PUB/HEALTH & SOCIO ECONOMY AGRO/ECOLOGY PATHOGENIC CYCLE Regional/local developpment Human activities economical / social conditions landscapes Ecosystème Climat Vectors Pathogens hosts FOCI

Maladies Africaines – new strains of West Nile Virus and new diseases such as Rift Valley Fever may be introduced to Europe from tropical regions linked by bird and other (e.g. traded livestock) migratory routes to Europe. Tick-borne Disease –diseases already present in Europe that have shown significant recent increases in incidence, at least partly due to changes in human behaviour in relation to the environment. Rodent-borne viruses (hanta, arena, cowpox) – widespread but under-reported diseases within Europe, with strong links with habitat and landscape structures. Leishmanioses – persistent on the southern fringes of Europe and beyond (southern Mediterranean basin), with the potential to expand as environments change. West Nile Virus – periodic and occasionally severe local outbreaks, especially on the eastern fringes of Europe, currently showing strong associations with landscape patterns. Malaria – an ancient scourge of Europe, currently now on her southern and eastern fringes, with the potential for re-emergence following environmental changes. ‘‘indicator diseases’’

WP / TasksPatternsProcesses Landscape, biotopes and Habitats Description of the environmental components and habitats Monitoring of major environmental events and their consequences on the cycles components Vector Bionomics and Competence Inventory, vectorial capacity and competence of vector populations Monitoring introduction, establishment and spread of vectors Public Health and Human Activities Public health demography of the human populations at risk Monitoring of significant population flows between and in countries Animal reservoirsEpidemiological inventory of the receptive wild and domestic animal populations Monitoring migrations (avifauna), movements and transport (livestock) of the animal reservoirs A common approach for all Sub-Projects

West Nile Virus Tick borne diseases Rodent borne diseases Malaria Leishmaniasis African Platform

Disease Modelling LR Spatial Modelling Environmental Change Biodiversity Data Management West Nile Virus Tick borne diseases Rodent borne diseases Malaria Leishmaniasis African Platform

Ecosystem components studies WP1: Landscape, habitat, climate WP2: Vector WP3: Public Health WP4: Animal Reservoir PatternProcess PatternProcess PatternProcess PatternProcess West Nile Malaria Tick borne Rodent borne Leishmania Africa Platform WP5: Individual disease Data management & Modelling

Ecosystem components studies WP1: Landscape, habitat, climate WP2: Vector WP3: Public Health WP4: Animal Reservoir PatternProcess PatternProcess PatternProcess PatternProcess West Nile Malaria Tick borne Rodent borne Leishmania Africa Platform Disease transmission modeling Biodiversity Environmental change monitoring Low resolution spatial modeling Data management & information systems Horizontal integration WP5: Individual disease Data management & Modelling WP6 Horizontal activities WP6.1 Data management WP6.2 RS tools WP6.3 PhD program

Ecosystem components studies WP7 Overall Integration: Tools & scenarios Emergence & spread models WP1: Landscape, habitat, climate WP2: Vector WP3: Public Health WP4: Animal Reservoir PatternProcess PatternProcess PatternProcess PatternProcess West Nile Malaria Tick borne Rodent borne Leishmania Africa Platform Disease transmission modeling Biodiversity Environmental change monitoring Low resolution spatial modeling Data management & information systems Horizontal integration WP5: Individual disease Data management & Modelling WP6 Horizontal activities WP6.1 Data management WP6.2 RS tools WP6.3 PhD program

Ecosystem components studies WP7 Overall Integration: Tools & scenarios WP8: Training, Dissemination, Management & Coordination Emergence & spread models WP1: Landscape, habitat, climate WP2: Vector WP3: Public Health WP4: Animal Reservoir PatternProcess PatternProcess PatternProcess PatternProcess West Nile Malaria Tick borne Rodent borne Leishmania Africa Platform Disease transmission modeling Biodiversity Environmental change monitoring Low resolution spatial modeling Data management & information systems Horizontal integration WP5: Individual disease Data management & Modelling WP6 Horizontal activities WP6.1 Data management WP6.2 RS tools WP6.3 PhD program

HEALTH/ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH of model diseases in a variety of representative environmental settings Develop predictive emergence and spread models Catalogue of ecosystems and environmental conditions at risk: “emerging disease hot- spots” Develop early warning, surveillance and monitoring tools Contribute to decision support and policy making Identify factors triggering emergence and spread Characterise (new) transmission cycles Identify environmental changes likely to favour emergence Project strategy TOOLS and POLICIES

HEALTH/ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH of model diseases in a variety of representative environmental settings Develop predictive emergence and spread models Catalogue of ecosystems and environmental conditions at risk: “emerging disease hot- spots” Develop early warning, surveillance and monitoring tools Contribute to decision support and policy making Identify factors triggering emergence and spread Characterise (new) transmission cycles Identify environmental changes likely to favour emergence EDEN strategy document integrated ‘trans- disciplinary’ health/environment approach. Project strategy TOOLS and POLICIES

A key deliverable produced by the Steering Committee and with back-up from the advisory group, specialists with internationally recognised skills in (i) biodiversity monitoring and assessment, (ii) environmental change detection, (iii) disease modelling, remote sensing, image processing and interpretation, and (iv) public health. The EDEN strategy document will propose an innovative integrated ‘trans-disciplinary’ health/environment approach for the unified analysis of the various EDEN outputs. The development of such an approach will be a major breakthrough of EDEN. EDEN strategy document

12345 SD H&E T&P Dissemination SD: EDEN Strategy document H&E: Health/Environment research T&P: Tools and policies Objectives timeframe

Knowledge Flow integrated models health-environment DMEWS Disease Monitoring & Early Warning Systems External sources Advisory group Individual diseases models EDEN Indicator Diseases EDEN Steering Committee

Annex1, chap 4.1 Contribution to the objectives of the sub-priority “EDEN’s bold ambition is to enable a multi-DMEWS system on a solid scientific foundation running from the theoretical understanding of the reasons for the emergence of new diseases in vulnerable ecosystems, through an understanding of complex disease dynamics, to the practical application of such knowledge to disease control. We do not know the precise shape of this future yet: EDEN presents a chance to Europe to invest in some of the ‘brightest and best’ researchers to ensure success with this vision, and in doing so to advance significantly the state-of-the-art and put Europe firmly at the forefront of DMEWS.” conclusion