The Environmental Impact of Agriculture and Energy Use Ideas for a Roadmap for Biomass Technologies Staur Gjestegård, Stange, Norge August 2004

On the way to our roadmap Today’s realities Tomorrow’s needs Our role

. Courtesy of Pamela Terry. World Population Growth National Geographic Scenarios Source: National Geographic Society, Millennium in Maps, August Projections vary due to assumptions on birth rates World population (billions)

World Population Growth Source: Population Reference Bureau Billions Developing Countries Industrial Countries

U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil Saudi Arabia 26% Iraq 11% Kuwait 10% Iran 9% UAE 8% Venezuela 6% Russia 5% Libya 3% Mexico 3% China 3% Nigeria 2% U.S. 2% U.S.26% Japan 7% China 6% Germany 4% Canada 4% Russia 3% Brazil 3% S. Korea 3% France 3% India 3% Mexico 3% Italy 2% Have Oil Use Oil The U.S. uses more than the next 5 highest consuming nations combined. The U.S. uses more than the next 5 highest consuming nations combined. Updated March Source: International Energy Annual 2001 (EIA), Tables 11.4 and

Changes in Atmospheric Concentration CO 2, CH 4, and N 2 0 – A Thousand Year History Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) Atmospheric concentration N 2 O (pbb) Atmospheric concentration CO 2 (ppm) Atmospheric concentration CH 4 (ppb)

The nature of value, and the value of nature

Vision - macro

Vision - nano

Implications of the Genomic Revolution The Molecular Economy Carbohydrate Lipid Protein Biopolymers

Harvesting for the carbohydrate economy

Starting points for our roadmap Our meeting last year and again today –The Environmental Impact of Agriculture and Energy Use: How New Technologies, Including Biotechnology, Can Provide Sustainable Solutions University of Minnesota Initiative in Renewable Energy & Environment

Initiative for Renewable Energy and the Environment MISSION: To promote statewide economic development, sustainable, healthy, and diverse ecosystems, and national energy security through development of bio-based and other renewable resources and processes.

Opportunities Use renewable resources for CO 2 -neutral production of energy and materials. Move closer to real-time use of photosynthesis.

Goals and objectives Leadership in research and demonstration. Create jobs. Promote the hydrogen economy. Use renewables to replace fossil fuels for –energy –chemicals –materials Foster communication and collaboration.

IREE core values Leveraging resources Partnerships Impact

University of Minnesota Initiative for Renewable Energy and the Environment Executive Committee Working Group Director/Assoc. Director Cluster Leader Council External Adv. Board Policy, Economics, and Ecosystems Conservation and Efficient Energy Systems Bioenergy and Bioproducts Hydrogen

Starting points for our roadmap Our meeting last year and again today –The Environmental Impact of Agriculture and Energy Use: How New Technologies, Including Biotechnology, Can Provide Sustainable Solutions University of Minnesota Initiative in Renewable Energy & Environment Roadmap for Biomass Technologies in the United States, December 2002 –

Roadmap for Biomass Technologies in the US: Vision Biopower –Double each decade through 2030 Biobased Transportation Fuels –0.5% (now); 4% (2010); 10% (2020); 20% (2030) Biobased Products –5% (now); 12% (2010); 18% (2020); 25% (2030)

Research, Development & Policy Needs to Achieve Goals Feedstock production –Biotechnology, genetics and plant physiology –Agronomic practices –Feedstock handling

Research, Development & Policy Needs to Achieve Goals Processing and conversion –Biorefinery concept –Thermochemical conversion –Bioconversion –Enabling technologies

Research, Development & Policy Needs to Achieve Goals Product uses and distribution –Biorefinery development and demonstration projects

Research, Development & Policy Needs to Achieve Goals Public policy measures –Incentives –Education –Resource supply –Environmental measures –Standards and codes –Financial assistance

Starting points for our roadmap Our meeting last year and again today –The Environmental Impact of Agriculture and Energy Use: How New Technologies, Including Biotechnology, Can Provide Sustainable Solutions University of Minnesota Initiative in Renewable Energy & Environment ( Roadmap for Biomass Technologies in the United States, December 2002 ( Multifunctional Agriculture - the case of Norway Norwegian Forests - Policy and Resources

Outcomes for our partnership By tomorrow –Vision –Roadmap –Mechanisms for success By next year Five years from now