Workshop on PWS Component of SWFDP Macao, April 2013 Haleh Kootval Chief, Public Weather Services

Workshop Objectives To help participants: Increase knowledge Develop / improve skills For improved delivery of services to the users and in particular the public

Workshop Outline Major topics related to delivery of PWS to Public and Key Partners: Warning Services Coordination with Main Partners: Disaster Management and Media Media and Communication Skills Public Education and Outreach Service Evaluation

To achieve the Objectives of the Workshop New Skills are needed as shown in the Workshop Programme.

Traditional Forecaster Trained in: –Science of meteorology –Observations (instruments, standards, technology,…) –Forecast models and related technology, including IT –Operational aspects of forecast production All conducted in the familiar environment of a forecast office

PWS Forecaster Requires skills and knowledge in delivery of services –Written communication –Communication skills –Public speaking –Presentation skills –Relationship and partnership building (e.g., media, DM) –User focus (dialogue,understanding needs), – Public education campaigns Often has to work outside forecast office

Challenges for PWS Forecasting component easier for staff:  Familiar environment of forecast office  Education and Training in Forecasting PWS component more difficult:  Requires knowledge and skills not taught  Engagement with users: environment often not familiar or even hostile  Requires understanding others’ points of view and demands: often unfamiliar

Skills required for PWS Component of SWFDP In addition to “hard skills” PWS forecasters should develop “soft skills” Hard skills: knowledge and understanding of meteorology and related technologies Soft skills: team working, flexibility, problem solving, communication skills, planning and organizing.

National PWS Focal Points To assist with the implementation of SWFDP Bridge the gap between forecasting and communicating with users Provide linkages between NMHSs and the WMO Secretariat Assist the Secretariat with all the aspects of the implementation of PWS programme and activities within their respective NMHS Secretariat Quarterly Reports to inform NFPs

Floods Service Delivery

The End Result of a SWFDP The end result of SWFDP is to improve warnings, forecasts and delivering services to: –Save lives –Protect properties –Help people make better decisions with the help of science and technology Serving the different communities of users!

PWS Component of SWFDP Focus: Use the tools/skills/techniques of improved forecasting Address: How to apply those tools to deliver PWS/warning services to identified user groups These two components together are indispensible to ensure SWFDP achieves its objectives

13 Floods A Warning System

14 A Warning System Goal WS: maximizing actions for safety Requires coordination across many agencies Components of a warning system: 1.Detection, monitoring and Warning  Global, regional, national and local observations of critical environmental parameters  Numerical weather prediction  Forecasts on different timescales (nowcasting to several days) 2.Timely issuing and dissemination of authoritative warning information 3.Communication: complete only after information received and understood (vs Fire and Forget)

15 A Warning System 4.Risk Analysis and impact assessment  Who and what is at risk and why? What will the impacts be? 5.Mitigation and response: Actions of recipients depend on:  Content and clarity of the warning  Credibility of issuing organization  State of preparedness of receiving authorities (supported by NMHSs warnings) 6.Scientific knowledge alone not sufficient  NMHSs + Hazards Community (other government organizations + local officials + emergency managers + media + voluntary and Humanitarian organizations + weather sensitive businesses….)

16 Essential Elements of a Warning System Operates continuously : even if infrequent hazards Warnings must be timely: to allow decision making Warning process must be transparent: to media and public Expert and trained staff of NMHSs Warning system must be integrated into larger socioeconomic, cultural and political system Flexible: Able to expand to other hazards and functions Apolitical – exposes societal vulnerabilities Community involvement and participation: ensure meeting community needs

17 Role of the government: Legislation Governments should as part of effective warning systems and services develop legislation clearly assigning responsibilities and authorities of warning service providers With respect to hydrometeorological hazards, the WMO policy of “single official voice” should be covered by legislation.

18 Successful Warning Service A warning service is successful when recipients:  Receive the warning;  Understand the information presented;  Believe the information;  Personalize the information;  Make correct decisions; and,  Respond in an adequate manner,  Feedback, lessons learnt.

19 Multi-Hazard Warning Systems Early warning systems are costly Many hazards are infrequent Many require similar observing, forecasting, communication and dissemination systems A multi-hazard warning system is appropriate  where there is commonality in the hazards (e.g., hurricanes and typhoons, storm surges, tsunamis, heavy rains, floods)  or when hazards occur in a sequence (Extreme heat, poor air quality, health impacts)

20 Factors contributing to ineffectual warnings Plans can go wrong because of technical factors:  Forecast accuracy: miscalculating onset time, intensity or impacts  Lack of timeliness of warnings and updates  Insufficient data  “sole official authority” issue in preparing and issuing warnings-advocated strongly by PWS/WMO  Contradictory information from different sources  Communication and/or dissemination inadequacies

21 Factors contributing to ineffectual warnings Plans can go wrong because of human factors:  Ineffective, haphazard and ad-hoc coordination with disaster management and the media  Lack of understanding of public’s response: making own assessment  Warning language and content Complicated, vague, ambiguous, insufficient advice and call to action  NMHSs staff inadequacy  Lack of a disaster preparedness plan: SOP  Low credibility of NMHS

22 Floods Dissemination & Communication

23 Dissemination and Communication Key Components of WS Effective dissemination:  Need to cover as large an audience as possible:  Backups and redundancies  Must reach Hazards Community Media: indispensable partner in warning process;multiple channels:  Traditional (TV, Radio, Sirens, Public Address systems, Coloured Balls and Beacons, Flags)  mobile and Social networking (SMS, Web, facebook, twitter)  Networking (Ethnic and religious leaders in remote communities) Public education: to avoid reinterpretation

Thank you