1 CEdMA Europe Workshop The Future of Learning Wayne Hodgins January 30, 2007 London, UK

2 Jan.30, 2007 Strategic Futurist President & Co-Founder Learnativity.org Chair, IEEE Learning Technology Standards Committee Learning Object Metadata Strategic Advisor

3 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 AGENDA 0930 Coffee and Networking 1000 Introduction 1015 Readiness for the Unexpected: There’s no future if the past is present 1200 Lunch and Networking 1300 "C-ing the Future": the convergence of Content, Competencies and Context 1430 Break and Networking 1500 Collaborative Session 1630 Summary 1645 Close

4 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Today’s Goals & Outcomes: New perspectives  We don’t need to think more, we need to think differently! - Albert Einstein New patterns, trends, directions Decision support New ideas to design your own future DIY Goals and Outcomes: ??

5 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 It’s ALL Yours! For Questions & Comments please contact: For slides, blogs, podcasts and more:

6 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30,

7 CEdMA Europe Workshop Readiness for the Unexpected There’s no Future if the Past is Present Wayne Hodgins January 30, 2007 London, UK

8 Wayne Hodgins Autodesk Confidential Looking but not seeing?

9 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 LEADERSHIP by EXAMPLE Psssssst! That’s YOU too! Look Around!

10 Jan.30, 2007 GRAND VISION … and some GRAND CHALLENGES

всеки един наука toda um aprendendo 每 一個 學習 svaki neki znanje každý jeden učenost al mulig sig indlæring Elk Het leren joka ainoa oppi Chaque Un Étude Jedes Ein Lernen Κάθε Ένας Εκμάθηση mind egy tanulás sérhver einn lærdómur Ogni Uno Imparare sulum unus eruditio todos los días un aprendizaje あらゆる 1 つ 勉強 有らゆる 某 伝習 각 1 개 배움 Hver En Å læring enhver ettall innlæring bawa't isa mag-aral każdy jeden wiedza Cada Um Aprendizagem fiecare unul Learning Каждо Одно Учить Каждый Один Изучение каждый один ученость svaki pojedinac znanje sleherni nedoločni zaimek učenje Cada Uno El aprender cada un aprendizaje varje en inlärningen her bir bilgi

12 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Grand Vision In a word? PERSONALIZATION (Or if you insist on a prefix call it..) me Learning! Personalized Learning Experiences for every person every day  all 6.4 billion of us -- every day!! Just for me and just right:  Time, place, amount, device, medium, way…  On demand, adaptive Markets of one: Billions of Markets Learning in ALL forms:  Formal AND informal  not just online, on computer, on screen, etc, but every where, every time “Captializing on EVERY Teachable Moment”

13 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 GRAND VISIONS … … have equally GRAND CHALLENGES

14 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 GRAND CHALLENGES: ANY EVERY!

15 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 EVERY one online? (in millions as of 2002) Source: NUA Internet Surveys

Everyone online?? As of Jan.11, 2007 World population = 6,796,600,937 Internet users = 1,094,000,000 = 16.09%

17 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007

18 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Source: Global-Reach.biz

19 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 WORLD INTERNET USAGE AND POPULATION STATISTICS World Regions Population ( 2007 Est.) Population % of World Internet Usage, Latest Data % Population ( Penetration ) Usage % of World Usage Growth Africa 933,448, %32,765, %3.0 %625.8 % Asia 3,712,527, %389,392, %35.6 %240.7 % Europe 809,624, %312,722, %28.6 %197.6 % Middle East 193,452, %19,382, %1.8 %490.1 % North America 334,538, %232,057, %21.2 %114.7 % Latin America/Caribbean 556,606, %88,778, %8.1 %391.3 % Oceania / Australia 34,468, %18,430, %1.7 %141.9 % WORLD TOTAL 6,574,666, % 1,093,529, %100.0 %202.9 % NOTES: (1) Internet Usage and World Population Statistics were updated on Jan. 11, (2) CLICK on each world region for detailed regional information. (3) Demographic (Population) numbers are based on data contained in the world-gazetteer website. (4) Internet usage information comes from data published by Nielsen//NetRatings, by the International Telecommunications Union, by local NICs, and other other reliable sources. (5) For definitions, disclaimer, and navigation help, see the Site Surfing Guide. (6) Information from this site may be cited, giving due credit and establishing an active link back to Copyright © 2006, Miniwatts Marketing Group. All rights reserved worldwide.world-gazetteerNielsen//NetRatingsInternational Telecommunications Union Site Surfing Guidewww.internetworldstats.com

20 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 GRAND CHALLENGES: Autodesk Confidential EVERY ONE AN Y

21 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Maybe Goldilocks had it right all along? The ideal is “just right”…. Just the right CONTENT, to Just the right PERSON, with Just the right PARTNERS, at Just the right TIME, on Just the right DEVICE, in Just the right CONTEXT, and Just the right WAY ……… UP

22 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 GRAND CHALLENGES: Autodesk Confidential EVERY ONE Singularity LEARNING AN Y

23 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Learning Learning is becoming a CORPORATE IMPERATIVE!! Focus shifting to augmenting our COGNITIVE limitations Getting better at getting better Unlearning Untapped R&D  eg. DARPA, Navy “Science of Learning”

24 Wayne Hodgins всеки един наука toda um aprendendo 每 一個 學習 svaki neki znanje každý jeden učenost al mulig sig indlæring Elk Het leren joka ainoa oppi Chaque Un Étude Jedes Ein Lernen Κάθε Ένας Εκμάθηση mind egy tanulás sérhver einn lærdómur Ogni Uno Imparare sulum unus eruditio todos los días un aprendizaje あらゆる 1 つ 勉強 有らゆる 某 伝習 각 1 개 배움 Hver En Å læring enhver ettall innlæring bawa't isa mag-aral każdy jeden wiedza Cada Um Aprendizagem fiecare unul Learning Каждо Одно Учить Каждый Один Изучение каждый один ученость svaki pojedinac znanje sleherni nedoločni zaimek učenje Cada Uno El aprender cada un aprendizaje varje en inlärningen her bir bilgi

25 Jan.30, 2007 INTO the FUTURE: Lessons from the Past?

26 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Disruptive Innovation! There’s one in YOUR future!! And another one right behind it!

27 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Perfecting the Irrelevant?!! Are we all very busy doing this???

28 Jan.30, 2007 Value Propositions What is YOURS???

29 Jan.30, 2007 Your turn: VALUE PROPOSITIONS What is YOUR value proposition?  As a company/organization?  As a team/department?  As in individual?

30 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 The Ice Man Cometh With great thanks to Ron Harden, AMEE for these graphics

31 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Disruptive Innovation Arrives With great thanks to Ron Harden, AMEE for these graphics

32 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Value Proposition ≠ Activity With great thanks to Ron Harden, AMEE for these graphics

33 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Value Propositions Are you confusing your Activities with your Value Proposition? Rethink the description of your Value Propopsitions:  Company/organization  Team/department  Personal/individual Competitive threats often help to bring your value propositions into focus.

34 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Today’s Examples: Kodak BBC

35 Jan.30, 2007 Your turn: COMPETITIVE THREAT What does the refrigerator in your future look like??

36 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 History of the (software) World Part I Sunset = automating known process  Perfecting the Irrelevant Context sensitive software functions  And we thought context sensitive help was hard! Part II of software history will be:  Mashups  Services

37 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Readiness for the Unexpected Technology Trends C -ing C -ing The Future The Future Learning Imperative: Mind the Gap G e tt ing s ma ll Content Object Model The Long Tail Long Tail Premature Arrival of the FUTURE MC 2 Autodesk FUTUREs? Closing

38 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Autodesk Confidential Underestimation Artisans?! Why are we consistently “wrong” or poor at predicting the future?  underestimate the time  underestimate the impact, scope, affect Healthy impatience? Linear vs exponential projections into the future

39 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Autodesk Confidential source:

40 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Autodesk Confidential

41 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Autodesk Confidential L inear E xponential G ap Time Understanding Underestimation LEG: Mind the Gap!! Exponential Amount Linear

42 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Autodesk Confidential Amount Time TAG you’re it! The Learning Imperative Rate of New TechnologyIntroduction & Innovation T echnology A ssimilation G ap Rate at Which Marketplace and Individuals Assimilate And VALUE!!

43 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Rate of New TechnologyIntroduction & Innovation T echnology A ssimilation G ap Amount Time Rate at Which Marketplace and Individuals Assimilate New Worldwide Services Group TAG: Technology Assimilation Gap

44 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 MC 2 : M ass C ontribution x M ass C ustomisation  Toffler’s “Pro-Sumer: society coming true! – a la Alvin Toffler “Future Shock” Personalized mass production  Lands End pants  NBA “your highlight film” Think:  DNA  Flexible Manufacturing & Assembly  Pre built Mini-Components & Capabilities DESIGN & ASSEMBLY Value Proposition is in the DESIGN & ASSEMBLY not the parts! SERVICE-like characteristics! as opposed to “product-like”

45 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Premature Arrival of the Future The future is already here. It is just not evenly distributed! - William Gibson The art of the possible in practice today!

46 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Technology trends MY way! TiVo effect! LSA  Latent Semantic Analysis Digital Ink  Tablet, PDA Digital Paper Embedded Immersive  Unplugged  Always connected

47 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Blog: thelongtail.com

48 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Long Tail The future of business is selling less for more The economics of abundance § Creative squandering § Don’t do one thing; do it all, Don’t store some; store it all; don’t sell one piece of content, sell it all Market of one is the biggest of all? The “getting small” of business:  Combine enough non hits on the Long Tail and you've got a market bigger than the hits!  "The biggest money is in the smallest sales.“ – Barnes & Noble carries 130,000 books – More than half Amazon sales from OUTSIDE top 130,000  The market for books not sold in the bookstore is larger than those that are! – Google makes most of its money from small advertisers – eBay the same – Children today will grow up never knowing the meaning of “out of print” Stuck in the physical world for our frame of reference Transform from mass markets to mass marketing Finding vs. searching  Collaborative filtering, social recommender systems, pattern recognition

49 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Scarcity Abundance 49 Jan 30, 2007

50 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Anatomy of the Long Tail Courtesy Wired magazine

51 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Courtesy Wired magazine

52 Jan.30, 2007 The Economy of ABUNDANCE

53 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Scarcity Abundance

54 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Scarcity Abundance

55 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Scarcity Abundance

56 Jan.30, 2007 Web 2.0 Over Hyped; Under Estimated

57 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Web 2.0

58 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Web 2.0: Over hyped, under estimated Defining characteristic is active participation and involvement of the user.  Always was the vision, finally getting to it now 3 main components:  RIA: Rich Internet Applications  Eg Flash, Ajax  Bringing the desktop to the browser  SOA: Service Oriented Architectures  Feeds, RSS, web services  Social Web  Mass contribution (metadata, content, feedback)

59 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Web 2.0 Defining characteristic is active participation and involvement of the user.  Always was the vision, finally getting to it now 3 main components:  RIA: Rich Internet Applications  Eg Flash, Ajax  Bringing the desktop to the browser  SOA: Service Oriented Architectures  Feeds, RSS, web services  Social Web  Mass contribution (metadata, content, feedback)

60 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Pandora and the Music Genome Project

61 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007

62 The Future is a Monstrous & Marvelous M A S H u P ! Wayne Hodgins Want to join?

63 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Mashups? A mashup is a website or web application that seamlessly combines content from more than one source into an integrated experience. Content used in mashups is typically sourced from a third party via a public interface or API. Other methods of sourcing content for mashups include Web feeds (e.g. RSS or Atom) and JavaScript.APIWeb feedsRSSAtom JavaScript The etymology of this term almost certainly derives from its similar use in pop music.pop music Many people are experimenting with mashups using eBay, Amazon, Google, Windows Live, and Yahoos APIs. Source:

64 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Mashup Quotes: Nowadays, there's a lot of talk about Web 2.0, web mashups, Ajax, etc., which in my mind are all facets of the same phenomenon: that information and presentation are being separated in ways that allow for novel forms of reuse." Sho KuwamotoWeb 2.0 AjaxSho Kuwamoto "We know we don't have a corner on creativity. There are creative people all around the world, hundreds of millions of them, and they are going to think of things to do with our basic platform that we didn't think of. So the mashup stuff is a wonderful way of allowing people to find new ways of applying the basic infrastructures we're propagating. This will turn out to be a major source of ideas for applying Google-based technology to a variety of applications." Vint CerfVint Cerf

65 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 That’s SOOOooooo yesterday Dad! Wayne’s definition: A mashup is a unique assembly of bits & pieces from more than one source into a single integrated whole. Mashups are for EVERYTHING! Music Content  Wiki, blogs Searching/finding  Tag Clouds Events Competencies, people What else can YOU think of?

66 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 ELF: eLearning Framework

67 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Tag Clouds (example from Flickr)

68 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Zoom Clouds

69 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Class Schedule Register Sponsors Hotel Info Logistics/Schedule Register Who's Coming Discussion Ideas Sponsors Hotel Information | Home | About Mashup Camp | Mashup University | Blog HomeAbout Mashup CampMashup UniversityBlog Important Notice: Although registration for Mashup Camp is closed (we've reached the maximum capacity for the venue), we're still adding people to the waiting list. To add yourself to the waiting list, go to the Camp registration page.Camp registration page The first Mashup Camp at the Computer History Museum in Moutain View, CA. Left: Ward Cunningham leads a discussion Middle: Attendees get ready to propose sessions Right: Lawrence Lessig leads a discussion about Creative Commonsdiscussion about Creative Commons Moderately useful blurb on unconferences Inserted from

70 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Pandora and the Music Genome Project

71 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007

72 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Thumbs UP! For StumbleUpon

73 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 “ C -ing the Future” C onnected, C ollaborative C onversational CONNECTED COLLABORATIVE CONVERSATION  MASHUPS

74 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Wayne’s 3 C’s for Web 2.0: C ONNECTIONS:  With people  With things  With code C OLLABORATION:  With others  With content  With code C ONVERSATIONS:  More than “just” communication  Unexpected consequences and emergent behaviors  MASHUPS

75 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Wiki Watch: Collaborative and community editing and authoring Authoritative? Wikiality!! New form of information organization  Dynamic contextual assemblies  Relationships  “information cloud”  Metadata driven

76 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 Web 2.0 worth checking out: Digg MySpace Technorati Wikipedia Wetpaint YouTube Pandora Mashup.com Wikicalc Writely Del.ico.us Flickr Pandora Music Genome

77 Wayne Hodgins Jan.30, 2007 For Questions & Comments please contact: For slides, blogs, podcasts and more: Thank You! Jan 30, 2007