BLUElink Update Andreas Schiller CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Hobart, Australia N. R. Smith BMRC Melbourne, Australia

Project “BLUElink” A partnership between: CSIRO Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Royal Australian Navy (RAN)

Australia! (Nature cover)

High-level objectives of BLUElink To develop an ocean forecasting capability in the Bureau of Meteorology To enable the RAN to forecast local ocean and atmospheric conditions

Key elements “Real-time” data availability (“nowcasts”) Archived ocean hindcasts, based on global modelling Ocean forecasts, based on global model Automated model nesting

SSH Anomaly & Geostrophic Velocity SST Anomaly & Geostrophic Velocity SST & Geostrophic Velocity Ocean Nowcasting A daily-updated nowcast of the 3-d temperature, salinity and current fields for the Asian-Australian region based on in situ (Argo and XBT) and satellite (altimeter, SST) data

The Global Model Ocean Forecasting Australia Model Based on MOM4 Provides an archive (1992 on) and operational 3-10 day forecasts See

Model Summary OFAM: Ocean Forecasting Australia Model Global model with eddy resolving resolution in Asian- Australian region MOM4 (GFDL) - Z coord./Free Surface - Hybrid Chen mixed-layer model - Quicker Advection Scheme - Smagorinsky viscosity parameter. (anisotropic) - isopycnal mixing and GM param.(anisotropic) - No ice model (later) - No river runoff (later) Eddy-resolving (1/10°) km from 75ºS to 16°N, 90ºE to 180ºE -47 levels (35 in top 1000m) - Relaxation to CARS and Levitus WOA (T,S) below 2000m (250 days) -6-hourly ECMWF (ERA-40 and/or operational fields) - Plus relaxation to SST and SSS BODAS: Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System - Ensemble Optimal Interpolation - 11 days data window in RA mode - Along-track SLA (T/P, ERS, GFO, Jason-1, Envisat) - Sea-level anomaly from all Australian coastal tide gauges - Assimilation of SST (AMSR-E, ATSR,AVHRR) - CTD and bottle profiles from ARGO, WOCE, TAO, and other regional experiments - XBT profiles from WOCE & IOTA - MSSH from data (diagnostic model run with strong nudging towards Levitus WOA)

BODAS: An Ensemble-based Optimal Interpolation System

Surface Eddy Kinetic Energy: January Altimetry Model

% EKE of Total Kinetic Energy JanuaryJuly

Surface Transports 0-100m & Mean Kinetic Energy: JulyJanuary Integrated Transports in 1º x 1º bins10 Sv

Intraseasonal Kelvin The great 97/98 El Niño Courtesy A.L. Gordon Makassar Strait Moorings Courtesy A.L. Gordon

Top-Bottom Volume Transports ( ) South China Sea:-1.7 ± 3.3 Sv Makassar Strait:-8.3 ± 4.5 Sv Maluku Sea: +3.5 ± 5.8 Sv Halmahera:-4.2 ± 5.5 Sv Torres Strait: -1.0 ± 1.2 Sv Timor Sea: -6.7 ± 4.2 Sv Ombai Strait: -2.1 ± 2.1Sv Lombok Strait:-3.0 ± 2.2 Sv Sunda Strait:-0.5 ± 0.45 Sv Malakka Strait:+0.3 ± 0.3 Total ITF (Indian Ocean)-12.9 ± 6.1Sv

(Ffield et al., 2000) ObservationsReanalysis Makassar Strait: Temperature Section 1997/1998

Reanalysis XBT Section PX34: Geostrophic (0-2000db) & Ekman Transports Observations Reanalysis (3-monthly filtered) Reanalysis (weekly ave.) TOTAL Transport

Limited Area Modelling – tropical cyclones Improved tropical cyclone forecasts based on coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean modelling

ROAM Relocatable Ocean- Atmosphere Model 3-10 day model prediction of ocean and atmospheric structure High resolution (~2 km), limited area (~100x100 km 2 ) Robust - to be run by non-experts in the Navy Controlled from a graphical interface Automatically nested inside operational global forecasts Output fed to sonar and radar models

ROAM Relocatable Ocean- Atmosphere Model Domain selection via a graphical interface

Relocatable Ocean Atmosphere Model (ROAM): GUI

ROAMing – testing for robustness Next slide Examples of test domains

ROAMing – testing for accuracy Comparison of automated vs optimised model: * SS height, * currents during TC Bobby (atmos pressure contours in white, coloured dots are data locations) ROAMOptimised model

ROAM: testing for accuracy 40 m below surface 90 m below surface (water depth 300 m) data model Temperature Feb 1995 TC Bobby

Components of the Ocean Model Analysis and Prediction System (OceanMAPS)

Phase 1: InfrastructureJun05-Dec05 Analysis cycle (Jun-Sep) IT Software, Resource plan (Jun-Sep) Implementation workshop (Sep/Oct) Implementation Plan (Oct) Forecast cycle (Oct-Dec) Phase 2: Tuning Jan06-Jun06 Robust configuration Hindcast trials QC real-time observations Analysis and Forecast GASP SX6 operation configuration Scheduling Extended configuration Phase 3: Monitoring Jun06-Dec06 Static configuration Transition to operational infrastructure Routine diagnostics Validation/skill assessment Documentation Transition to NMOC Global System: OceanMAPS Operational Implementation

Summary: BLUElink Integrated reanalyses of the ocean state over the last 13 Integrated reanalyses of the ocean state over the last 13 years. Public access now available for registered users: years. Public access now available for registered users: Global Operational Outputs and Regional (shelf-scale) Global Operational Outputs and Regional (shelf-scale) Relocatable Nested System (all available by 2006/07): Relocatable Nested System (all available by 2006/07):  7-28 days forecasts (global, BoM),  3+ days (regional, RAN),  Prognostic variables: SSH; 3-D ocean temperature, salinity and currents salinity and currents

BLUElink II ( ): BLUElink II ( ): Higher resolution models and improved physics:  global  coastal  littoral zone river discharge, tidal focing  river discharge, tidal focing Improved global analysis and prediction system (towards Improved global analysis and prediction system (towards Ensemble Kalman Filter): Ensemble Kalman Filter):  full SST assimilation  improved anomalies, error statistics Downscaling: relocatable, fully coupled regional ocean- Downscaling: relocatable, fully coupled regional ocean- atmosphere model with limited DA capability atmosphere model with limited DA capability (1/8)º min (1/16)º

Sustainability of Satellites QuikSCAT Microwave SST ? Altimetry Ocean color