1 Russia and the USA over Iraq: attitudes and decision-making Anna Smirnova Yaroslavl State University Prepared for presentation at the International Student Forum “Global Challenges: Security, Environment and Terrorism in the 21 st Century“, April 21-24, 2004 Yaroslavl, Russia

2 Representation of a problem as a factor of propensity of states for cooperation in the process of international problem-solving Participation of the USA and Russia in resolution of Iraqi crisis during the period of Issues under consideration: How it is possible, that the USA and Russia, which fight as allies against international terrorism in Afghanistan, did not manage to further their cooperation? What factors influence the propensity of states for cooperation in the process of international problem-solving?

3 Common external threat as a factor of cooperation Existence of common external threat is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the emergence of cooperation. Political leaders of states should have the shared understanding of the problem under resolution.

4 Representation of a problem and foreign policy decision-making Cognitive approach to understanding of the functioning of international organizations: the process of representation of a problem underlies the interaction of states in the course of international problem-solving. Organization originates from the lack of convergence of aims and images, constructed by its member-states. The main function of organization consists in reconciliation of different opinions, search for acceptable treatment of the problem issue.

5 Two main characteristics of cooperative relationships 1) Convergence of representations of a problem in minds of political leaders of different states 2) Mutual adjustment of representations of a problem in accordance with the feed-back, which political leaders receive from their partners. Hypothesis: resolution of Iraqi crisis in is characterized by the divergence of the problem representations in the minds of Russian and American decision-makers and the reluctance of the Russian and the US presidents to adjust their representations taking into consideration the feed-back that is received from the other international actors.

6 Image of state as factor of representation of a problem in minds of political leaders Self-image consists of three components: identity, status and role. Self-image helps to build the hierarchy of alternatives through accentuation of either identification, status or role component that is categorized by an actor as the most completely reflecting the peculiarities of the existing situation Each of the components of the self-image is associated with the positive, negative or ambivalent emotions Representation of the options from the point of view of gains or losses, associated with the problem.

7 Cognitive and affective characteristics of self-images of the USA and Russia, constructed by the president G.W. Bush and V.V. Putin in the period of Iraqi crisis in Frequency of occurrence of identity, status and role statements in speeches of the president of the USA G.W. Bush and the president of Russia V.V. Putin in the periods of Iraqi crisis in Frequency of positive, negative and ambivalent statements in speeches of the of the president of the USA G.W. Bush and the president of Russia V.V. Putin in the period of Iraqi crisis in G.W. Bush V.V. Putin Identity Status Role G.W.BushV.V. Putin Positive Negative Ambivalent

8 Role statements in speeches of the president of Russia V.V. Putin and the president of the USA G.W. Bush in the period of Iraqi crisis in I. Roles of Russia: 1)guaranteeing the work of international inspectors – 18,18% of statements; 2)disarmament of Iraq - 14,55% of statements; 3)solution of humanitarian problems of people of Iraq - 10,91% of statements; 4)Writing off debts of Iraq - 7,27% of statements. II. Principles of realization of roles: 1)fulfillment of resolution, adopted by the Security Council of the UNO – 34,55% of statements; 2)usage of politico-diplomatic methods - 9,87%; 3)collective actions of Russia and its partners and allies, including the USA and other members of G-8 - 8,64% of statements. I. Roles of the USA: 1) resolution of Iraqi problem - 62,96% of statements: to overthrow the regime of Saddam Hussein - 38,23%; to prevent the regime of S. from development of weapons of mass destruction – 11,76% of statements. 2) fight against international terrorism - 8,33% of statements; 3) protection of international security - 4,63% of statements; 4) guaranteeing security of the USA - 2,78% of statements. II. Principles of realization of roles: 1) collective actions of the USA and their allies - 11,29% of statements; 2) strategy of preventive actions - 9,68% of statements; 3) fulfillment of resolution, adopted by the Security Council of the UNO - 8,06% of statements.

9 Factors which determine the choice of the role priorities of the USA in the period of Iraqi crisis in Identity: 1) freedom - 20,83% of identity statements; 2) events of September 11, ,69% of statements; 4) history of the World War II - 5,2% of statements; 5) peace - 4,17% of statements; 6) hope - 4,17% of statements; 7) opportunities - 2,08% of statements. Status: perception of threats and opportunities: 1) regime of Saddam Hussein poses threat to the USA - 55,56% of statements; 2) terrorism - 18,06% of statements; 3) the USA sees its vulnerability - 12,5% of statements; 4) opportunities: the regime of Saddam Hussein is overthrown, campaign in Iraq is a victory in the fight against terrorism – 12,5% of statements. Roles

10 Factors which determine the choice of the role priorities of Russia in the period of Iraqi crisis in Status: principles of building of international relations: 1) multipolarity - 23,81% of statements; 2) collective actions and decisions - 9,52% of statements; 3) inadmissibility of the beginning of the age of “new colonialism” – 9,52% of statements. Status: perception of threats 1)threat of availability of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq / concern about Saddam Hussein's links to international terrorist groups - 20% of statements; 2) military operation conducted by the allied forces in Iraq fraught with disintegration of the existing system of international relations - 16% of statements; 3) attempts to unify the world – 16 % of statements. Roles

11 Status component of self-image of Russia and the USA in the period of Iraqi crisis in : perception of relationships with other international actors (as it is presented in speeches of the president of Russia V.V. Putin and the president of the USA G.W. Bush) Russia: 1) Russian-American relationships – 29,82% of statements; 1) relationships between Russia and member-states of the Coalition - 21,05% of statements; 3) Russian-Iraqi relationships - 10,53% of statements. The USA: 1) the USA acts in Iraq with allies at their side - 56,52% of statements; 2) the USA has enemies and opponents - 13,04% of statements; 3) the USA is friend of Iraqi people / willingness to cooperate with new Iraqi government - 13,04% of statement.

12 Image of the political world constructed by the president of Russia V.V. Putin and the president of the USA G.W. Bush (Indices were calculated in accordance with the methodic VICS, St. Walker) V.V. Putin P-1: Nature of political world - 0,4 - cooperative; P-2: Realization of political values – 0,41 – optimistic; P-3: Political future – 0,52 – predictability is above the average P-5: Role of chance – 0,65 – high role of chance G.W. Bush P-1: Nature of political world – (-0,14) – conflictual; P-2: Realization of political values – (- 0,16) – pessimistic; P-3: Political future: 0,12 – low predictability P-5: Role of chance – 0,87 – high role of chance ______________________________________ The indices, presented above, describe the so-called philosophical beliefs of the president of Russia V.V. Putin and the president of the USA G.W. Bush about the nature of political world. The test of hypothesis about the existence of significant differences in the indexes P-1, P-2, P-3 and P-5 helps us to come to conclusion about existence of substantial changes in beliefs of two presidents.

13 Conclusions: 1) In the period of Iraqi crisis in we fixed the absence of the necessary foundations for cooperation between Russia and the USA, connected with absence of shared representations of Iraqi problem and the lack of willingness to correct their representations and images. 2) Representation of a problem in the minds of political leaders is important factor of propensity of states for cooperation in the process of international problem-solving.