Parties, Elections and Inequality

What is the class / income basis of parties – See 1/19 Why do pundits say rich (blue state) voters are D & poor (red state) voters are R? – ‘What’s the matter w/ Kansas?’ How can inequality increase if there are fewer rich voters?

Income and Party ID Low income 64% 65% 60% 63% 62% 63% % Democratic High income 30% 41% 32% 41% 36% 28% % Democratic

What’s The Matter w/ Kansas? Argument: – Individual level: Many less affluent / working class voters support GOP & GOP policies that make the rich richer – ‘Post materialist’ Organized labor less relevant in Dem coalition Christian Conservatives more relevant in GOP

What’s The Matter w/ Kansas? Argument (H&P p ): – Sushi loving, latte-sipping, tree-hugging, alt lifestyle costal cosmopolitians – vs – NASCAR-loving, gun-toting, traditional values, business owning rural / suburbanites

What’s the Matter w/ Kansas? Latte sipping liberals vs Joe the Plumber

Red State vs. Blue State <-2004 D’s win CA$37K NY$40K NJ$44K CT$48K WA$36K MA$44K MN$37K MD$42K 2008-> Rs win AL$29K MS$25K AR$26K UT$27K SC$28K WV$26K KY$28K

What’s the Matter w/ the Argument? Do less affluent people elect Republicans? Do rich people elect Democrats?

What’s the Matter w/ the Argument? Gelman Argument works at state level, but not level of voters – Aggregation problem Richer states do support Democrats – Over time, a weaker relationship between income and voting in richest states

What’s the Matter w/ the Argument? Gelman Poorer states do support GOP – Wealthy voters in poor states now more GOP than 20 years ago – Less affluent voters in poor states still solidly Democratic

Relationship between income and Party vote Gelman et al p. 357 Slope strongest in poor, rural Republican red states (MS, AR, WV, LA) Weakest in urban, rich, Dem states (CT, MA, NJ, NY, WA, CO)

What’s the Matter….? Economic issues more relevant in poorer states? – Opposite of the ‘Kansas’ story Why? – Race? – Postmaterialism?

Elections, Parties and Inequality Politically, how does inequality increase over time? Democratic theory – The have nots will tax those who have Far more middle class / working class than rich – Equilibrium theory If inequality too great, easy for a redistributionist majority party to form Limits to redistribution

Elections, Parties and Inequality Politically, how does inequality increase over time? – “Theory” ‘works’ in many affluent, established democracies – But since 1970s, income inequality rising in US

Elections, Parties and Inequality

What’s this got to do with political parties and voters? – Government policies affect income distribution – Voters reward / punish parties based on economic performance (overall) – Do they vote based on economic policies that affect income distribution?

Elections, Parties and Inequality What’s this got to do with political parties and voters? – Government policies affect income distribution – What policies? “Bush” Tax cuts, capital gains tax cuts (trillions of $) Health care law Payroll tax cut Unemployment benefits Labor organizing laws Minimum wage laws

Elections, Parties and Inequality What’s this got to do with political parties and voters? – Do voters care about inequality – 2002,Before Occupy: Most thought gap was larger, many though it a bad thing

Elections, Parties and Inequality What’s this got to do with political parties and voters? – Do voters understand how policies affect inequality 55% in 2000 said ‘rich people’ would benefit most from Bush Tax cuts But – voters indifferent about cuts (40%), or didn’t understand

Homer gets a Tax Cut (Bartles)

Voters and inequality They don’t get it? (2002) – People don’t know if they pay more in income tax or social security tax – 42% don’t know if Americans pay more/less than W. Europeans – 61% hadn’t heard about corporate tax cut – 60% didn’t know if cuts should expire in 2011

Voters and Inequality Can this be a large issue in the 2012 election Opportunity argument – Voters aspire to be wealthy Support policies that make rich richer because they want someday to be rich Support these policies because they do not want to ‘kill the goose that lays golden eggs’ Philosophical support (Capitalism, freedom, etc.)

Voters and Inequality Can this be a large issue in the 2012 election? Who trust about nation’s economy? – Obama44% – GOP Congress40%

Voters and Inequality Increase taxes on “higher income” Americans – 67% yes, 30% no (11/8/11) To lower the deficit, tax HHs of $1m, or not tax them? 12/18/11 10/2/11 – Tax increase 60% 64% – No increase 35% 30%

Voters and Inequality Let Bush tax cuts expire on HHs over $250K (11/17/11) – 53% yes, 36% no – 49% yes, 43% no (11/8/11) Too much power in hands of a few rich people and large corporations? – 77% yes, 19% no

Voters and Inequality Can this be a large issue in the 2012 election? If public attitudes as such, why has inequality risen over past several decades?