Efficient Suburbs 2020 Emma’s: efficient cities –Speaks Democrat & Republican - clumsy? Agenda: –? 2 minutes on Smart Growth ? Yell to define jargon –Background (13 slides) Warming, regl plan, policy, fake solns, sustainable –PRT Suburban Silver Bullet (13) –Walk to Work Homes (4) –Green Culture (2) –Digital Hitchhiking.

Is this real? Is global warming a concern? Is “peak oil” a concern? –$6, $9, or even $12 per gallon? –GNP shrinks? –“petro-shock” plans? – prudent Energy policy: all benefits, no sacrifice. Quick, easy govt fixes? It’s what we want. 85% high-schoolers pessimistic –Self-fulfilling Most common strategy for the future is denial (Schwartz – Art of Long View).

Regional Visioning 30 big U.S. metro regions are “visioning” 50M, CNU/RV, CA’s Future in the Balance, Compass, MTC, Frego/Calthorpe 80% share In 25 years, 50% population growth. w/ smart scenario, only 40% VMT increase –Scenario implementation not guaranteed –Things get worse. Only slows the acceleration of degradation. Calthorpe: “We should be doing more to reduce ecological footprint” ( –Current TOD/SG isn’t a fix. Only 200 small transit villages Need more, bigger, smarter SG faster, dang it! –Toolbox doesn’t work. Have to go outside of the box Frego/Calthorpe held back by clients. Unchecked, Calthorpe would have: –Carbon tax, PRT circulator (not “90 year old transit technology”), strong office park Rx.

Disfunctional Human Settlement Patterns (Risse) Big required change: demand/behavior side. There’s no quick transportation or energy supply fix. (dilithium) –Frustration: environment  smart growth links are weak For each person, minimize the distances in the triangle below. Miles  feet –4 story urbanist mixed use TV  50% of trips w/o car, mostly walk, not transit (GB Arrington, TCRP 102) – “walk to quart of milk” πr 2 :: pipes, wires, streets, distribution. Infrastructure cost savings in the billions for Envision Utah. (25% -TCRP74) Home Job Activities

© Jonathan Rose Companies, LLC Sprawl vs. Green Urban Are suburbanites villains? No, but future choices really matter

What should goals be? 89 MBTU, not 240  Kyoto, cap VMT at 2006 Growth boundary (more than 1 species - superchimp) Lower cost of living + upward mobility Profit (no govt $ to scale up subsidized program)  viral Unleash human goodness  stomp pessimism: show method to solve big problems Lesser goals –Health promotion –Social: vibrant, not Bowling Alone –Mobility for people who can’t drive –More productive travel Not our job: –Sierra Club’s Holtzclaw: Sustainable population is 4B –Reduced ecological footprint food production (vegetarian) –Curtail materialism (Worldwatch, etc). –Curtail airplane travel

Can Government Achieve these goals? 2 slides on why govt can’t –(public policy theory).

Quantum Innovation / Public Policy (Burke) Innovations produce winners & losers Political subsystems favor incremental change –ag, defense, energy, transit, healthcare, edu, etc. –“analysis is politics by other means” –Auto/highway subsystem trumps transit Public sector: huge penalty for failure Media stifles innovation, accentuates conflict Macropolitical system can impose quantum change – earmarks, etc –’79+: mature democracy, entrenched interests Billionaires & tech foundations: quantum Strong govt: Dubai, Singapore.

Social Entrepreneurism micro-credit, India street kids, AIDs education Act local (small $), strive for widespread impact –Fix 1 suburb  world is saved (viral spread, mutation) Government is not the solution –resistant, but good follower S. E. characteristics: –Boring at dinner parties –Driven, stamina, undeterred –“Ends" oriented Will change/refine tactics –Listener (behavioral) –Cross-disciplinary, practical. By David Bornstein

Fake solutions Hydrogen economy (A better battery, so nice increment. Entrenched interests) AHS (auto-pilot cars) – “low friction” long distance transportation  ultra sprawl Outer ring solar roof McMansion “Socially responsible” companies –w/ bad settlement patterns.

Multiple Solutions w/ Trade-offs Emma: Any real solution is good Cities21: Complex, comprehensive, integrated. Make smart growth smarter –How to make it happen. Economics. Envt impact. Vetted via 300 mtngs (need more visions!) Vs. cursory ecocity wishlists (how? $?) Auto-hostility works pretty well: $10 office park parking, parking shortages, etc. But, tragedy of commons What’s “least crazy?” –Denial?.

3 stage path to sustainability (Risse) Can’t go straight there 1) Populist: Consciousness raising, recycling, sea bass, Prius, non-threatening to government 2) Fundamental: efficient human settlement patterns. Land-use conversant population, government restructuring. Green building 3) Profound: 80% NRG & resource reduction, 4B population, accurate pricing, renewable NRG, diet restructuring, anti-materialism, lower GNP, etc

The Villain: Suburban Office Parks Main cause of sprawl & congestion for 30 years –Affordability decreasing, segregation increasing –200 with ~ 30K workers  6M+ workers ULI’s Transforming Suburban Business Districts Calthorpe “We didn't focus on office parks. Huge mistake. Need powerful strategies for these” Cervero: So bad they’re easy to fix Shoup ( High Cost of Free Parking ) - Parking lots  land bank. –The new frontier: 5 parking spaces per car Upper Rock & Tysons business parks  TOD.

Villain 2: Housing Industry Problem: few innovative housing choices 1) Zimmerman / Volk. Home industry: "lumbering giants.” No genuine innovations. No “meaningful improvement of the product offered to the consumer" 2) SG America: "Homes are like pork bellies, all the same, rather than as consumer products which vary greatly according to people's preferences.” HPD #12i4 New choice: vibrant, green suburban lifestyle: short commute apts and condos, mixed use, good schools. (By John S. Pritchett

END of Background Background (13 slides) –Warming, regl plan, policy, fake solns, sustainable Complex solution: –PRT Suburban Silver Bullet (13) –Walk to Work Homes (4) –Green Culture (2) –Digital Hitchhiking.

“Environmentalism” 4B population (large # people) –Helps all Efficient Cities (large # people) –Helps all  Culture, goodness –  Political will Gripes –Stovepipe thinking –Wishlists (how? $?) –Insufficient scale –Focus on symptoms –Not “work backwards”. Fish stocks Water supply & quality Forests Habitat Soil Warming Peak Oil Air Pollution Earth in Balance Plan B 2.0 Collapse Biodiversity Nature NRG Smarter growth Asilomar Conf. Long Emergency Apollo Best practice solns “Small” # people Takes $ & will