Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources INDIAN INSTITUTE OF.

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Presentation transcript:

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY G.B. Pant Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002

The People Dr. G.B. Pant (PI) Dr. G.B. Pant (PI) Dr. K. Rupa Kumar Dr. K. Rupa Kumar Mr. B.N. Mandal Mr. B.N. Mandal Dr. K. Krishna Kumar Dr. K. Krishna Kumar Dr. B.D. Kulkarni Dr. B.D. Kulkarni Mrs. N.R. Deshpande Mrs. N.R. Deshpande Collaborators/Consultants: Collaborators/Consultants: Dr. K.S. Ramasastri, National Institute of Hydrology Dr. K.S. Ramasastri, National Institute of Hydrology

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 OUTLINE Objectives Objectives Research Tasks Research Tasks Indian rainfall variability Indian rainfall variability Baseline precipitation analysis Baseline precipitation analysis Precipitation climatology of major river basins Precipitation climatology of major river basins Spatio-temporal variability of precipitation over major river basins Spatio-temporal variability of precipitation over major river basins Evaluation of HadRM2 simulations of precipitation over major river basins Evaluation of HadRM2 simulations of precipitation over major river basins

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Objectives Analysis of spatio-temporal variability of precipitation over major river basins of India Analysis of spatio-temporal variability of precipitation over major river basins of India Study of past changes in water availability and their sensitivity to climate variability and land-use/land- cover changes Study of past changes in water availability and their sensitivity to climate variability and land-use/land- cover changes Evaluation of regional climate model simulations of precipitation Evaluation of regional climate model simulations of precipitation Study of past changes in water quality Study of past changes in water quality Development of future scenarios for water availability and quality under different climate change scenarios Development of future scenarios for water availability and quality under different climate change scenarios

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Research Tasks Identification of target river basins Identification of target river basins Baseline precipitation analysis: Precipitation climatology of major river basins; Spatio-temporal variability of precipitation Baseline precipitation analysis: Precipitation climatology of major river basins; Spatio-temporal variability of precipitation Evaluation of HadRM2 simulations of monthly/daily precipitation over major river basins Evaluation of HadRM2 simulations of monthly/daily precipitation over major river basins Case studies of past changes in water availability and quality in relation to climate and land-use/land-cover changes Case studies of past changes in water availability and quality in relation to climate and land-use/land-cover changes Hydrometeorological analysis of HadRM2 simulations for major river basins Hydrometeorological analysis of HadRM2 simulations for major river basins Water availability scenarios for major river basins including the scenarios for the impacts of land use and cover Water availability scenarios for major river basins including the scenarios for the impacts of land use and cover Identification of critical areas and frequency/impacts of extreme events Identification of critical areas and frequency/impacts of extreme events

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Mean Rainfall Patterns Data Source: CMAP ( ) Summer Monsoon (mm/season) Annual (mm/year)

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Indian Summer Monsoon Contribution to Annual Rainfall and its Variability Data Source : CMAP ( ) Monsoon/Annual (%) Coefficient of Variation (%)

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 The Stability of the Indian Summer Monsoon

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Temporal scales of monsoon variability IntraseasonalInterannualDecadal/CenturyMillennia & longer Onset/withdrawal; Active and break- monsoon phases; day oscillations; severe rainstorms Droughts and floods Changes in the frequency of droughts and floods Changes in the areal extents of monsoons Atmospheric variability; tropical- midlatitude interactions; Soil moisture; Sea surface temperatures Atmospheric interactions; El Niño/ Southern Oscillation; Top layers of tropical oceans; Snow cover; Land surface characteristics Monsoon circulation variations; Deep ocean involvement; Greenhouse gases increase; Human activities; Biospheric changes; Volcanic dust Global climate excursions; Ice ages; Warm epochs; Sun-earth geometry Factors Features

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Rainfall Data Homogeneous monthly rainfall data set for 306 stations ( ) Homogeneous monthly rainfall data set for 306 stations ( ) Daily rainfall data at raingauge stations during (variable network) Daily rainfall data at raingauge stations during (variable network)

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Change in Raingauge Network Density ( )

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Raingauge Network for Daily Rainfall Data

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall ( ) (Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly Rainfall Data Set)

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Long-term Trends in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Major River Basins of India

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Identification of Target River Basins 66 notable river basins 66 notable river basins 3 large river basins identified : Ganga, Godavari and Krishna 3 large river basins identified : Ganga, Godavari and Krishna Summer monsoon main source of water for all the three basins Summer monsoon main source of water for all the three basins

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Seasona Precipitation : GANGA

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Seasonal Precipitation : GODAVARI

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Seasonal Precipitation : KRISHNA

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Variation of Basin-mean Precipitation: GANGA

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Variation of Basin-mean Precipitation: GODAVARI

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Variation of Basin-mean Precipitation: KRISHNA

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Extreme Rainfall in River Basins Short-duration extremes in rainfall have profound influence on the water availability as well as flood-related issues Short-duration extremes in rainfall have profound influence on the water availability as well as flood-related issues 1-3 day extreme rainfall patterns have been analysed to study this aspect 1-3 day extreme rainfall patterns have been analysed to study this aspect

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Extreme Rainfall : GANGA

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Extreme Rainfall : GODAVARI

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Extreme Rainfall : KRISHNA

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 All-India Mean Monthly Rainfall

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 All-India Seasonal Rainfall

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Annual Cycles of Rainfall in Major River Basins of India Ganga Godavari Krishna

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Capital Equipment A high-end workstation along with PCs and on-line UPS have been acquired for the project A high-end workstation along with PCs and on-line UPS have been acquired for the project