Rainfall Forecasting and its Applications FIJI CASE STUDY Janita PahaladSimon McGree National Climate Centre Climate Service Division Aust. Bureau of Meteorology Fiji Meteorological Service

Rainfall Forecasting Models – In Brief FMS Rainfall Prediction Model (RPM) – FMS Rainfall Prediction Model (RPM) – ▪Operational since July 1999 ▪3 months forecast ▪25 stations Australian Rainman Model (AusRain) – Australian Rainman Model (AusRain) – ▪Operational since August 1999 ▪1 to 12 months forecast ▪21 stations

Statistical Models Requires good quality, unbroken long historical data Simple, easily implemented, can run on desktop PC May require initial programming expertise Easily modified Implemented anywhere with local data

Applications Drought Prediction Scheme Drought Prediction Scheme Flooding incidences Flooding incidences Frequency of tropical cyclones Frequency of tropical cyclones

User Applications Agriculture – namely sugar industry Agriculture – namely sugar industry Forestry Forestry Disaster managers Disaster managers Water resource managers Water resource managers Military Military Red Cross Red Cross Hospitals Hospitals Civil Aviation Civil Aviation Construction Construction Tourism Tourism

Information Dissemination FMS Monthly Weather Summary FMS Monthly Weather Summary Website: Website: Media (Newspapers/radio) Media (Newspapers/radio) Direct contact Direct contact Press Releases Press Releases DMET’s monthly meeting with DISMAC DMET’s monthly meeting with DISMAC

Concerns and Future Needs Users – sceptical about forecast – still fairly new concept in this region Users – sceptical about forecast – still fairly new concept in this region Lack of understanding (or acceptance) of probabilistic forecasts Lack of understanding (or acceptance) of probabilistic forecasts Need for public education on ENSO Need for public education on ENSO Need to expand user network Need to expand user network Need for timely national climate forum Need for timely national climate forum Need to further customise user products Need to further customise user products

Concerns and Future Needs Educating the media is most needed Educating the media is most needed Limited interaction between FMS and water sector – should be enhanced Limited interaction between FMS and water sector – should be enhanced Examples like FSC and FPL should be applied in other sectors Examples like FSC and FPL should be applied in other sectors

Main Points FMS example can be applied to other PIC. FMS example can be applied to other PIC. Local knowledge is important and should be used Local knowledge is important and should be used Regional/global models can be applied but there may be a need to downscale Regional/global models can be applied but there may be a need to downscale Climate forecasting is still fairly new in the Region – public awareness is vital Climate forecasting is still fairly new in the Region – public awareness is vital Many prefer deterministic forecasts Many prefer deterministic forecasts