The Global Environmental Change and Human Security Project THE SOUTHERN AFRICA VULNERABILITY INITIATIVE (SAVI):INAUGURAL WORKSHOP MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE JUNE 2003

 SAVI Context GEC Research Community GECHS Development & Research Agenda  Rethinking Vulnerability within the GEC Community  SAVI Overview & Sponsors  Workshop Objectives & Format Overview [next]

The GEC Research Community Sponsoring Agencies Research Programs Research Projects

The GEC Research Community cont’d SPONSORS: International Council for Science (ICSU) International Social Science Council (ISSC) World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

The GEC Research Community cont’d PROGRAMS (SPONSORS) World Climate Research Program (WCRP) (ICSU,WMO) International Geosphere Biosphere Program (IGBP) (ICSU) International Human Dimensions Program on GEC (IHDP) (ICSU, ISSC) DIVERSITAS (ICSU)

The GEC Research Community cont’d IHDP Projects Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change (IDGEC) Industrial Transformation (IT) Land Cover & Land Use Change (LUCC) Global Environmental Change & Human Security (GECHS)

The GEC Research Community cont’d WMOICSUISSC WCRPIGBP IHDPDIVER IDGEC IT LUCC GECHS

SAVI Organization  GECHS-led project (1 yr grant)  Science Agencies (Funders) ICSU & IHDP  Co-op Universities, Institutes & Organization Witswatersrand, Carleton, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research–Oslo, Internat Geog Union (Vulnerability Task Force), IGBP, Southern Africa Savannas Network

SAVI Organizing Committee Coleen Vogel, University of the Witswatersrand Karen O’Brien & Ane Schjolden, Center for International Climate & Environmental Research–Oslo Mike Brklacich, Carleton University

GECHS Origins Redefinition of traditional security concepts [next] Human security & the Canadian/international policy agenda Environment & economy linkages Critical zones mapping

Human Security & GEC Human security is having the capacity to overcome vulnerability and to respond positively to environmental change

Key Questions Underlying GECHS [next] What types of environmental change threaten human security? How does environmental change threaten human security? What is the present extent of insecurity? Which regions and groups are the most insecure? Why are some regions and groups more vulnerable to specific environmental change than others? Can we predict future insecurities? Context: What strategies are potentially available to cope with the insecurities caused by environmental change? Response Options: Why are some strategies selected? Analysis: Why are some effective? How can obstacles be overcome?

Impacts to Responses to Vulnerability Rethinking Vulnerability to Climatic Change (CC) [next]

Macro-Climatic Change Scenarios First-Order Impacts: Regional Climatic Properties Second-Order Impacts: Primary Productivity Higher-Order Impacts: Regional Production Impacts of Climatic Change

Macro-Climatic Change Scenarios Impacts Adaptation Nonresponse Mitigation Responses to Climatic Change

Attributes of Impacts & Response Research  Single stressor  Slow, incremental CC  Single scale  Limited socio-economic change  Vulnerability as a CC residual

Building A Framework To Link CC & Vulnerability Research CLIMATIC CHANGE Change in type, freq & mag of threats CC Exposure BIO-PHYSICAL VULNERABILITY

Building A Framework To Link CC & Vulnerability Research cont’d CLIMATIC CHANGE Change in type, freq & mag of threats CC Exposure COMPREHENSIVE VULNERABILITY Capacity to cope with & recover from CC SOCIETAL CHANGE Change in institutions, resource accessibility, economic conditions, etc

Comprehensive Vulnerability: Science – Policy Linkages  Identify vulnerable populations/regions  Assess interventions to reduce human vulnerability / improve human security  Balanced programs to improve adaptive capacity & mitigation

 Project Development  Sponsoring Agencies  SAVI Objectives  SAVI Process SAVI Overview [next]

Project Development  Comprehensive vulnerability  Multiple stressors  Current (environmental) stress & GEC  Policy responses  Southern Africa focus

SAVI Organization  GECHS-led project (1 yr grant)  Science Agencies (Funders) ICSU & IHDP  Co-op Universities, Institutes & Organization Witswatersrand, Carleton, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research–Oslo, Internat Geog Union (Vulnerability Task Force), IGBP, Southern Africa Savannas Network

SAVI Purpose Develop long-term applied research program & network for southern Africa to address who is vulnerable, to what, why, and what can be done.

SAVI Objectives 1. Consolidate different facets of vulnerability research and develop an integrated framework for understanding vulnerability within the context of southern Africa 2. Develop a proposal for a self-sustaining, longer-term project which integrates vulnerability research with policy formulation. 3. Build a coalition amongst ICSU and other scientists in the region to implement a vulnerability research program.

SAVI Process (Tentative) 1.Assembling the multi-disciplinary team (Mar-Jun 03) 2.Inaugural W/S (Jun 03) 3.Workshop report (Jun-Sep 03) 4.Report in IHPD Update (Sep-Oct 03) 5.AVISO Bulletin & Briefings in Washington (US AID &WB) & Ottawa (CIDA & IDRC) (Jul-Dec 03) 6.Draft longer-term research proposal (Aug-Dec 03) 7.Mtg/ws to Review & Revise Draft Proposal and Engage Policy Community (Jan 04) 8.Preparation and Submission of Proposal for Long- term Project Funding (Oct 03 – Mar 04)

 Workshop Objectives  Logistics  Anticipated Outcomes & Follow-up Inaugural SAVI Workshop [next]

Workshop Objectives 1.Examine current threats to human security in the region 2.Discuss how GEC in combination with other stresses might impinge upon human security in the region, & identify linkages. 3.Articulate policy issues relating to comprehensive vulnerability and human security in the region. 4.Begin development of a conceptual framework to assess comprehensive vulnerability.

Workshop Logistics  Mix of thematic & case studies  Short presentations to stimulate discussion  Discuss Qs presented in ToRs  Articulate linkages amongst vulnerability threats  Brainstorming!!!!!!

Anticipated Outcomes & Follow-up 1.Sharper Qs regarding: Who and which regions within southern Africa are vulnerable & to what & why? What is threatened? Role of GEC and other changes in future vulnerabilities? Future collaborations & funding? 2.Sketch of SAVI conceptual framework 3.Workshop reports W/S summary, IHDP Newsletter, AVISO, Other? 4.Plans for SAVI W/S II Purpose, Focus, Timing