Solid waste projections The Future of Ireland‘s Environment 3 December 2008 Seán Lyons Economic and Social Research Institute

Outline Introduction The ISus model Behavioural parameters Waste projections by type/sector –Municipal –Construction & demolition –Hazardous –Industrial –Other Conclusions

Introduction ESRI developing a sustainable development research model, funded by the EPA’s STRIVE programme. Ireland‘s Sustainable Development Model Emissions and resource use up to 2025; alternative socio-economic & policy assump. Currently predicts emissions of 45 substances from 19 sectors Solid waste emissions divided by type (Hazardous, Biodegradable Municipal Waste, Other) and disposition (Recycled, Incinerated, Landfilled, Unknown)

The ISus Model

Estimating behavioural parameters Projecting future emissions: how will economic conditions and policy choices affect behaviour? Some parameters based on Irish household or firm level data; others from international research Key influences on waste emissions: –Demographics, Income / Output –Accessibility/prices of disposal and recycling options, other facilities

Behavioural parameters - 2 Examples of waste parameters: –Elasticity of waste per household w.r.t. disposable income = (forthcoming) –Avg change in waste per household due to weight-based charging: -45% (Scott & Watson, 2006) –Price elasticity of household mixed waste disposal, weight-based = (Scott & Watson, 2006) –Elasticity of household recycling with respect to mixed waste price = (Fullerton & Kinnaman, 2000)

Municipal Solid Waste Historical baseline: EPA National Waste Reports Demand drivers: # households, household size, disposable income, service sector output Prevalence of pay-by-weight and pay-by- volume charging; per unit charge where used In progress: effects of collection arrangements, e.g. kerbside collection of recyclables, use of three-bin system, etc.

Projections for Biodegradable Municipal Waste Source: ESRI ISus model, based on 2008 ESRI Medium Term Review forecasts, credit crunch scenario; figures through 2006 are actuals

Construction and demolition waste EPA National Waste Reports give aggregate C&D waste figures Projections for future construction activity from HERMES Parameters are available for waste arisings per area of new building, by type of construction (e.g. residential) Model shows expected effects on construction waste of ongoing NDP spending and fall in housing construction

Projections for construction and demolition waste Source: ESRI ISus model, based on 2008 ESRI Medium Term Review forecasts, credit crunch scenario; 2006 figure is actual

Projections for hazardous waste Source: ESRI ISus model, based on 2008 ESRI Medium Term Review forecasts, credit crunch scenario; 2006 figure is actual

Other waste categories Organic agricultural waste contributes most of the non-BMW, non-haz. category –Estimated at 60 million tonnes in 2004 –No longer tracked by EPA, because not defined as ‘waste’ in EU regulation –Mostly used to produce exports Disposition of much waste remains unknown –Especially C&D & household waste –Over 3 million tonnes in 2006, excl. agriculture Industrial waste is tracked in detail via IPPC licensing system –However, microdata only available for 2001/4/6 in electronic form

Conclusions Big fall in C&D waste due to economic shift away from residential construction Hazardous waste to follow similar pattern, but likely to recover mid next decade Recession should slow or even halt growth in BMW for next couple of years, but EU targets from 2010 still hard to meet Huge organic agricultural waste stream no longer reported officially Other data gaps: MSW quantities, prices and services offered by collector/year; digitisation of historical AERs