Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI Climate Change, Disasters and Security…Issues, Concerns and Implications for India Main Quest Tracing the Climate Change- Disasters - Security Nexus Concl Climate change & disasters linked intrinsically to security through societal vulnerabilities and environmental depletion Climate change leading to increasing disasters in India –a potential security threat that could severely challenge India’s development and global power aspirations Policy Impls Integrated Risk Management Framework, Adaptation and Mitigation, Structural to Non Structural Mitigation, Impact Assessment, CCDRI, Modeling, Vulnerability Atlas, Climate Change to “Climate Affairs”, Development as a Tool for Risk Reduction, Centre State Relations, International Cooperation Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 4/15/2017

Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change Temp- 0.74 (0.56-0.92) ° C Global snow cover has receded by some 10% Global average sea level rise - 0.1 to 0.2 meters Source: IPCC AR4 (WG1) Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 4/15/2017

Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI Climate Disasters- CRED 2007 Report 2000-2006 Average- 365 1987-1998 Average- 195 www.em-dat.net Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 4/15/2017

Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI Global Disaster Trends Major types of natural disasters 2006 2005 2000-04 Geological 36 33 40.0 Floods and related 254 206 177.6 Droughts and related 60 69 72.8 Windstorms 77 125 102.6 Total 427 433 393.0 www.em-dat.net Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 4/15/2017

Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI Occurrence by major types of natural disasters www.em-dat.net Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 4/15/2017

Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI Top 10 Disasters 2007 Event Date Country Deaths Cyclone Sidr Flood Earthquake Heat Wave Cyclone Yemyin Flood and landsl. November July-August July-Sep August June-July July June Bangladesh India Korea China, P Rep Peru Hungary Pakistan 4,234 1,110 1,103 610 535 519 500 242 230 225 Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 4/15/2017

Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI Time Line Trend of Natural Disasters 1975-2007 www.em-dat.net Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 4/15/2017

Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI Trend Natural Disasters 2006 and 2007 CRED Disaster CRUNCH 2007 Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 4/15/2017

Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI Climate Change- Disasters –Security Nexus Climate Change Resource scarcity Poverty/inequality Political instability Lack of development Lack of human security Conflict Security Disasters Natural Hazard Vulnerable Conditions Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 4/15/2017

Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI Climate Change- Indian Scenario IPCC Indian – (NATCOM 2004) Warming - 2-4.7 °C (3.3 °C), winter 3.6 °C summer 2.7 °C Warming - 3 to 4°C (2.1 to 2.6 C in the 2050s and 3.3 to 3.8 C in the 2080s) Precipitation - decrease in inter dry period (mean change -5%, range -35 to +15 %) , increase for rest of the year (mean change +11 %, range -3 to +23 %). Precipitation - 10 and 40% increase, variations in the spatial pattern, enhanced in northwestern and central India Sea level rise of 0.1 to 0.9m High along west coast Sea level rise 0.09 to 0.88m Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 4/15/2017

Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI Disasters- Indian Scenario India supports 1/6th of world’s population on 2 % of world's landmass 59% of land vulnerable to Earthquakes 28% of land vulnerable to Drought 40 million hectares (12%) of land vulnerable to Floods 80% of coast vulnerable to Cyclones Different types of manmade Hazards 1 million houses damaged annually + human, economic, social, other losses Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 4/15/2017

Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI Disaster Profile- India 1994-1998 - Rs 28,678 Crores 1998-2004 - Rs 47,464 crores 2005 - Rs 87,500 crores 2007 India China US No of Significant disasters 21 38 31 Victims 7.3 m 88 m 2.3 m Economic damages 3.3 bn US $ 13.5 bn US $ 5 bn US $ Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 4/15/2017

INDIA ECONOMIC LOSSES DUE TO DISASTERS 50 % 139 % 112,000 Cr Losses in Thousand Crores 311 % PERIOD Annual- Impact on People 1. Losses in lives - 4334. 2. People affected - 30 Million. 3. Houses lost - 2.34 Million. Annual- Financial Losses Percentage of Central Revenue (for relief) – 12%.

Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI Projected Impacts of Climate Change in India Coastal Zone Area (coastal districts ) approx 379,610 Km2, Population density of 455 pers /Km2, 1.5 times national average of 324 pers/ Km2 Sea level rise highest along Gulf of Kutchh/ coast of West Bengal 01m Sea Level Rise displace approx 7.1 million people, about 5,764 Km2 of land are will be lost, 4200 km of road Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 4/15/2017

Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI Recommendations Integrated Risk Management Framework Adaptation and Mitigation Structural to Non Structural Mitigation Impact Assessment CCDRI Modeling Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 4/15/2017

Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI Recommendations Vulnerability Atlas Climate Change to “Climate Affairs” Development as a Tool for Risk Reduction Centre State Relations International Cooperation Climate Change- Need for Single Authority Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 4/15/2017

Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI Thank You Questions? Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 17 4/15/2017

Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI India: GHG Sectorwise emissions Energy efficiency across the board very important Another relatively cost-effective area for carbon savings is land-use –the sector accounts for 9-18% of global emissions. Hence important to tackle emissions from deforestation A substantial body of evidence suggests that action to prevent further deforestation would be relatively cheap compared with other types of mitigation Studies suggest that costs are low for early action on a significant scale Deforestation is highly concentrated in a few countries. Currently around 30% of land-use emissions are from Indonesia and a further 20% from Brazil Note are other co-benefits from avoided deforestation. The project in Namibia, Mozambique, combines sustainable agriculture and forestry to regenerate the local environment, reduce emissions and reduce poverty. Carbon credits have been sold to the Carbon Neutral Company, which specialises in supplying credits to the carbon offset market that is growing rapidly in rich countries But are important sovereignty issues. Situation different in Brazil, Congo Basin, Indonesia Large-scale pilot schemes can help provide more information about appropriate policy response – whether carbon markets or not Source : NATCOM Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 4/15/2017