1. Climate Change Implications on Military Activities
Major Stoyan STOYANOV
E&T Branch, CMDR COE
NATO SPS Program Advanced Research Workshop
05-07 July 2016, Sofia, BULGARIA

2. NATO Strategic Foresight Analysis *
Analyzes challenges facing the Alliance in decades to come
Sets 1) Long Term Military Transformation (LTMT)
2) Framework for Future Alliance Operations (FFAO)
3) NATO Defence Planning Process (NDPP)
* SFA 2015 Update Report

3. NATO Strategic Foresight Analysis *
Political Theme
Human Theme
Economics and Resources Theme
Science and Technology Theme
Environment Theme
* SFA 2015 Update Report

4. Climate Change (CC) – Global Worming
anthropogenic drivers extremely likely to be the dominant cause of the observed warming*
serves as an accelerant of instability or a threat multiplier that makes already existing threats worse
urgent and growing threat to national, regional and global security
* IPCC 2014 Synthesis Report

5. Security Related Impacts
Increasing in droughts
More often inland flooding
Declining snow and ice cover
Extreme weather
Sea-level rise and storm surges
Geopolitical concerns

6. NATO Military Activities (Operations) *
Military Assistance to Civil Authorities
Support to an election process
Training the local police, security forces and population
Supporting public administration
Support to Humanitarian Assistance Operations
Disaster Relief
Dislocated Civilian Support
Technical Assistance and Support
Consequence Management
* AJP-3.4

7. Military Resilience Strategy
Capability development/amendment through:
Strategic environment assessment
Identifying capability needed
Deriving capability requirements
Conducting a gap analysis
Finding possible solutions (DOTMLPF-I Approach)
Applying of the new capability

8. NATO SPS Program Advanced Research Workshop
Thank You!
Major Stoyan STOYANOV
E&T Branch, CMDR COE
NATO SPS Program Advanced Research Workshop
05-07 July 2016, Sofia, BULGARIA

9. Framework(s) Hyogo Framework 2005 - 2015 Governance Risk management
Knowledge management and education
Risk Factors Reducing
Effective response and recovery
Sendai Framework
Understanding Disaster Risk
Disaster Risk Governance
Investing in Disaster Risk Reduction
Effective R4
Source: UNISDR

10. Disaster Management Process *
Mitigation measures
Resilience Building
Capability/Plans
Development
Preventive measures
Warning/
Evacuation
Assessment (LL)
Saving People
Economic and Social
Recovery
Providing Assistance
Damages Assessment
Resettlement/Relocation
Restoration of Infrastructural
Services
* Source: UNISDR/2009

11. Risk Management Process *
* Source: ISO 31000/2009

12. Risk Management Process *
* Source: ISO 31000/2009

13. Resilience Strategies
Capability development trough:
Flexible response
Reducing risk
Planning for displacement
Anticipating climate risks
Adjustment in security analysis
Scenarios for lack of recourses