1. Asia-Pacific Disaster Report Manzul Hazarika, Ph.D. Sahdev Singh, Ph.D. Chapter 1 : Hazard, Vulnerability and Risks - Trends and Analysis

2. Contents 1.0)Introduction 1.1) Trends and Analysis in the Asia-Pacific South Asia South-East Asia East Asia Pacific (Pacific Islands, Australia and New Zealand) Central & West Asia 1.2) Climate Change Impacts 1.3) Impact of Climate Change and Variability 1.4) Neglected Disasters 1.5) Risk Assessment Initiatives in the Region

3. 1.0 Introduction Figures show a comparison of number of disasters and causalities among the continents from 1900 to 2008. Asia ranks in the top both in terms of number of disasters and causalities

4. Disaster Statistics for Asia-Pacific : 1980-2009 Number of Events Number of Causalities (x 1,000) Number of Affected People (x 1,000,000) Economic Loss (x 1,000,000)

5. Top 10 Countries in the Asia-Pacific : 1980-2009 CountryEvents China533 India395 Philippines310 Indonesia293 Bangladesh219 Japan149 Australia144 Viet Nam140 Islamic Republic of Iran138 Russian Federation130 CountryKilled Bangladesh191,344 Indonesia189,615 China147,204 India139,393 Myanmar139,071 Pakistan84,561 Iran77,984 Sri Lanka36,501 Philippines31,060 Turkey21,838 CountryLoss(US$1000) China230,947,214 Japan206,553,800 India45,184,830 Turkey24,463,300 DPR Korea23,641,910 Australia21,955,981 Iran21,374,696 Indonesia21,219,450 Bangladesh16,802,500 Republic of Korea14,869,523 Country Affected China2,500,735,703 India1,506,794,740 Bangladesh317,454,534 Philippines98,701,710 Viet Nam67,700,028 Thailand53,142,429 Iran42,657,823 Pakistan39,116,514 Indonesia18,195,948 Cambodia16,501,552

6. Disaster Types and No. of Events: 1980- 2009

7. Disaster Types and Casualties: 1980-2009

8. Disaster Types and People Affected : 1980-2009

9. Disaster Types and Economic Loss : 1980- 2009

10. 1.1 Trends and Analysis in the Asia-Pacific (1980-2009) No. of Disaster Events and Killed

11. Trends and Analysis in the Asia-Pacific (1980-2009) No. of Disaster Events and Damage

12. South Asia Trends of Disaster Events and Killed : South Asia (1980-2009)

13. South Asia Trends of Disaster Events and Damage: South Asia (1980-2009)

14. South-East Asia Trends of Disaster Events and Killed : South-East Asia (1980-2009)

15. South-East Asia Trends of Disaster Events and Damage: South-East Asia (1980-2009)

16. East Asia Trends of Disaster Events and Killed : East Asia (1980-2009)

17. East Asia Trends of Disaster Events and Damage: East Asia (1980-2009)

18. Pacific Trends of Disaster Events and Killed : Pacific (1980-2009)

19. Pacific Trends of Disaster Events and Damage: Pacific (1980-2009)

20. Central and West Asia Trends of Disaster Events and Killed : Central and West Asia (1980-2009)

21. Central and West Asia Trends of Disaster Events and Damage: Central and West Asia (1980-2009)

22. 1.2 Climate Change Impacts 1.2.1 GLOF – Case Studies by ICIMOD and recent trends 1.2.2 Drought – Chinese Papers and ESCAP’s Regional Report 1.2.3 Impact of Sea Level Rise in SIDS – SOPAC Documents 1.2.4 Impact of Sea Level Rise on Mega Delta Regions - UNU 1.2.5 Trend of Tropical Cyclones – Typhoon Committee Report 1.2.6 More Frequent Extremely Heavy Rainfall Events – JMA

23. A glacier Retreat Image from the ICIMOD, Nepal

24. Rainfall Freq. Analysis from JMA, Japan

25. 1.3.1 ENSO and Extreme Climate in the Region – IPCC 1.3.2 ENSO, Climate Change and Forest Fire – GFMC 1.3 Climate Change Impacts

26. 1.4.1 Impacts of small but more frequent disasters [SAARC raw data 2008 and 2009, same as EM-DAT] 1.4.2 Disasters in Small Countries such as SIDS [SOPAC Documents] 1.4.3 Tornadoes in Bangladesh [Raw Data and waiting for Documents from International Group to Reduce Wind-related Disaster Risk/International Association of Wind Engineering] 1.4 Neglected Disasters

27. 1.5 Risk Assessment Initiatives 1.5.1 Introduction of various risk assessment initiatives in the region [ADPC, IDRC] Waiting for 1.5.2 Disaster Index and Indicators (water-related ones for example) - Available GermanWatch Briefing Paper and World Bank Report on Methodologies 1.5.2.1 Water Insecurity Index [EDD, ESCAP] Waiting for 1.5.2.2 Flood Vulnerability Index [The ICHARM report Global Trends in Water-Related Disasters does not mention the index.]

28. 1.6 Risk Assessment Initiatives 1.6 Climate Change Adaptation Progress in the Region - Based on survey to be conducted in February/early March. The outcomes will be ready by end of March 2010 1.6.1 Analysis of Country Survey 1.6.2 Case Studies

29. 1.7 Conclusions and Recommendations After completion of sections 1.1 to 1.6 1.7.1 Conclusions 1.7.2 Recommendations (Examples) –Recommend to develop a regional network of countries with large delta –Promote to develop an official disaster database in the region –Recommend to develop a regional-scale climate change scenario

30. Thank You

31. Recent Catastrophic Disasters Cyclone Nargis (Myanmar) - May 2 and 3, 2008 Category: 4 (Saffir-Simpson scale) People killed: 84,530 deaths and 53,836 missing People affected: 2.4 million Economic Losses: 4 billion US$ Sichuan Earthquake (China) - 12 May 2008 Magnitude: 7.9 (Richter scale) People killed: 68,858 deaths and 8,618 missing People affected: 45.6 million Economic Losses: 85 billion US$ Asian Tsunami - 26 December, 2004 Magnitude: 9.3 (Richter scale) People killed: 184,167 And 45,752 missing People affected: ?? million Economic Losses: ?? billion US$