International Workshop on Population Projections using Census Data 14 – 16 January 2013 Beijing, China

Introduction to the workshop Objectives To provide participants with an opportunity to: 1) understand the importance of population projections as a planning tool; 2) learn how to generate population projections at a national level, including the use of available software packages.

Introduction to the workshop Agenda of the workshop Session 1: Introduction Session 2. Main Population Projection Methods Session 3: Establishing the Base Population Session 4: Projecting the levels of mortality, fertility and migration Session 5: Projecting the age patterns of mortality, fertility and migration Session 6: Population projections for national populations Session 7: Final Matters

Session I: Introduction The need of population projections Population projections for Asia: Background and challenges Population projections: the experience of China

The Need for and the Utility of Population Projections

The Need for and the Utility of Population Projections The future is unknown…Why population projection? Who needs/uses population projections? Producers of population projections

Why population projection? Planning for people’s needs Education Health system Social Security Employment Infrastructure Housing Understanding the determinants of population change

Future is unknown, but we know some basic demographic trends Demographic processes are long-term Lasting impact of past and current changes Momentum Component of population change Fertility, Mortality and Migration Demographic transition as guiding principle Countries move from high fertility and mortality to low fertility and mortality – still in progress in many developing countries

The Demographic Transition Animated

Transformation of age structures: => From pyramid to (almost) rectangle. => From young populations to older populations

World Population Ageing

Transformation of survival: => From early deaths to late deaths.

Changing Survival

What Population Projections Can Reveal

Ageing - Growth of Population 65+

China - Burden of Ageing

Ageing – Planning in South Australia Source:

Urbanization EstimatesProjections

Urban Planning - Water Supply Source:

Planning for Education Source:

Who needs, who uses population Projections? Main users Central g overnments (ministries of education, health, planning, etc.) Regional and local governments Private sector (demand, supply) Academics

Producers of population projections Governments: NSO, other national institutions Regional organizations: EUROSTAT, CELADE (UN Regional Commission) International organizations: UNPD (WPP, WUP biennially) Others: Private Sector, international research institutions (IIASA)

Population Projections in the Context of Asia

Challenges Very low fertility level in some countries – where does the trend go? Urbanization Varying availability and quality of data (census, civil registration and sample survey)

Fertility Trends in Asia Replacement level

Rapid Urbanization

Data Availability – the Good News Since the start of the 2010 Round of Censuses in 2005, 197 countries or areas have already carried out a census (out of 238), having enumerated an estimated 89% of the world’s population. (as of 1 January 2013) Censuses are regularly held in most countries and areas in Asia. Out of 50 countries or areas, 41 have already conducted a census and 5 are expected to do it in (as of 1 January)

Data Availability – the Bad News Civil registration is still a problem in most developing countries. Not just a challenge for statistical data collection, but a challenge to public administrative systems. The scandal of invisibility: Little progress since the 1970s.

Coverage of Birth and Death Registration in Asia Birth registrationDeath registration

Getting Ready: Software, Textbooks, Data Sources

Software to be used in the workshop Projection software RUPEX v Spectrum 4.5 Demographic analysis tools PASEX MORTPAK v. 4.3 General software Excel, Word, PowerPoint etc.

Textbooks, Manuals Siegel, Swanson (2004) Preston et al. (2000) Arriaga (1994 and later) United Nations Manuals Software Manuals

Textbooks

US Census Bureau: Arriaga

Data sources National data United Nations data (UNSD, UNPD) Other

UN Data Sources: UNSD

UN Data sources: UNPD

Additional tools and data Demographic software PADIS Applied Demographic Toolbox Demographic data Human Mortality Database [ Human Fertility Database [ Human Life-Table Database [ INDEPTH [

Enjoy the workshop !